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Box Office Thread 2014
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 10:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Estamates:

$41,398,000 Cap 2
$39,000,000 Rio 2

Something of a surprise that Rio 2 did right around the same amount that Rio 1 did. Thought that was a fairly well received movie by the fan base, and that this would top it comfortably coming out of the gate.

Looking at Cap 2's second weekend:

$72,525,615 Iron Man 3 (-58.4%)
$41,398,000 Cap 2 (-56.4%)
$36,586,016 Thor 2 (-57.3%)

$41,398,000 Cap 2 (-56.4%)
$25,554,303 Cap (-60.7%)

Considering the reviews and how well it seems to have been received by the fanbase, that level of drop is a bit disappointing. Probably would have liked to see it in the $50M+ range to show that it really had legs.

Through the second weekends:

$159,006,000 Cap 2
$145,097,130 Thor 2
$117,421,571 Cap

It's comfortably ahead of Thor 2, but not really at the pace that looks like $250M+ pace. Might get there, but not close to $300M legs.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Apr 20, 2014 10:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cap 2's third weekend estimate is at $26.6 million.

http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

That's just a 35 percent drop from the second weekend.

It's not going to reach Iron Man levels, but will easily outdistance Thor 2. Might get to $250 million, which would certainly be great news for the franchise.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Apr 22, 2014 9:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Update: Cap 2 checked in at $25.5 million.

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3825&p=.htm

Still, it will easily pass Thor 2. Seems like a safe bet to reach $225 million, though $250 million may be a long shot (so I stand corrected from my previous post).

Transcendence bombed with a $10.9 million opening weekend.

Two weeks until the summer box office season begins. :)
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 22, 2014 2:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think you might have been right in the first post on $250M:

Through the weekend
$200,501,510 Cap 2
$167,917,123 Thor 2

Thor 2 had almost $40M left in the tank. Cap 2 is kicking the crap out of it every day. We are a long ways out from Thor 2's Christmas-New Years days, but even those didn't rake in a lot of $$$ for Thor 2 since it was late in life.

Cap 2 will take a big hit when Spidey comes out, but that was a weekend that Thor 2 pulled in $4.8M. I'm thinking Cap might even bag that amount: that would be a massive decline over the next two weekends.

So... think you called it right originally, Bob. This weekend's light drop was pretty big news for Cap's box office.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Apr 28, 2014 8:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cap 2 up to $224.8 million as of this past weekend. Yeah, looks like $250 million is attainable.

And now comes Amazing Spidey 2... and the start of the summer box office season.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 28, 2014 1:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pretty pessimistic Summer Predictions piece from Mojo:

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3826&p=.htm

They're predicting just one $300M movie (How to Train Your Dragon 2). There isn't really a blockbuster out there that seems like a stone cold lock, so they might be right.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Apr 28, 2014 1:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So let's do a brief synopsis of the contenders for the summer box office crown of 2014, in order of likelihood:

Transformers: Age of Extinction -- Gawd, it pains me to put this here given how headache inducing these films were. But the first three each pulled in $300 million and this one should get there as well, unless all the Transformers fanboys hated the third film so much they want nothing to do with this one.

How to Train Your Dragon 2 -- Mojo's pick for the summer box office crown. First flick pulled in $217.6 million and Mojo seems to think this will be Dreamworks' next blockbuster franchise. I think it's going to depend a lot upon reviews... strong reviews could definitely push this one high.

X-Men: Days of Future Past -- They are playing this up like The Avengers, emphasizing the team up between X-Men of earlier and later years, including the meeting of young Professor X and Magneto with older Professor X and Magneto. I don't know if it will threaten the Memorial Day record... it will need strong reviews to do that. But the team-up of X-Men "past and future" could push this one high.

Amazing Spider Man 2 -- Yeah, the first one didn't do that well at the box office but that may be because it came too soon after the first series of films. I think a lot will depend on how well the first Amazing Spidey flick pulled in fans who caught it later on DVD, Netflix or elsewhere.

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes -- The Rise film did better than expected and Mojo thinks this one could do the same. Plus it will come at a time in which there isn't much competition (mid-July).

Godzilla -- Could be the sleeper, if the reviews are good. They seem to be taking the approach for World War Z, focusing more on the humans than the monster.

Guardians of the Galaxy -- Another potential sleeper, but it doesn't have heroes with mainstream appeal and it comes out in August. More likely it will need strong reviews to get $200 million.

Here's Mojo's take on the summer box office race:

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3826&p=.htm
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu May 01, 2014 4:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
Transformers: Age of Extinction -- Gawd, it pains me to put this here given how headache inducing these films were. But the first three each pulled in $300 million and this one should get there as well, unless all the Transformers fanboys hated the third film so much they want nothing to do with this one.


I was surprised that Mojo had this under $300M. Even with T2 sucking so much, T3 still made $350M+ after a monster opening. I can imaging the LaBeouf --> Walberg swap out hurts the movie, since LaBeouf hasn't shown he can draw at all.


Quote:
How to Train Your Dragon 2 -- Mojo's pick for the summer box office crown. First flick pulled in $217.6 million and Mojo seems to think this will be Dreamworks' next blockbuster franchise. I think it's going to depend a lot upon reviews... strong reviews could definitely push this one high.


I get his points on this: there is a lack of a Pixar movie, and other established top animated sequels. By default this almost is it. They've timed it for school getting out. Also, the first one wasn't a monster opening, but instead slow rolled it's way to that $200M+:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=howtotrainyourdragon.htm

I'm thinking that's some good vibes and word of mouth for those viewers.

This one should open stronger. But there might be some worry over how Rio 2 has done. It's not a bomb, yet it's about $8M behind the pace of the first one. Rio 1 was well liked, and 2 seemed like a natural movie to top it. It's going to happen.


Quote:
X-Men: Days of Future Past -- They are playing this up like The Avengers, emphasizing the team up between X-Men of earlier and later years, including the meeting of young Professor X and Magneto with older Professor X and Magneto. I don't know if it will threaten the Memorial Day record... it will need strong reviews to do that. But the team-up of X-Men "past and future" could push this one high.


I think this is hurt relative to Last Stand: that was pitched as a "finale" to a trilogy, this isn't. What we have now is a confused franchise:

* let's to Prequels (Origins: Wolverine & First Class)

* let's just make a Wolverine

* okay... First Class did poor numbers... we need to Get The Band Back Together!!!

It feels like this one was a panic move to get the franchise back off the ground, Avengers it up as you say, with everyone willing to take a big payday to get involved. Wolverine opened to $53M, which was less than even First Class... this has to go way above that for this to have a shot at $300M. In fact, not of these have gotten remotely close to $300M. Even Last Stand, with it's monster $123M 4-day Memorial Day number, only got to $234M.

This needs a really big opening weekend. :)


Quote:
Amazing Spider Man 2 -- Yeah, the first one didn't do that well at the box office but that may be because it came too soon after the first series of films. I think a lot will depend on how well the first Amazing Spidey flick pulled in fans who caught it later on DVD, Netflix or elsewhere.


I thought the $262M for A-Spidey wasn't bad at all. Never really thought it was going to challenge Spidey unless it also turned into a phenom. It also got timed in a tough fashion: The Dark Knight Rises came out in its 3rd weekend and just toasted it.

This one is up against Godzilla its third weekend, and pretty much has the first two weeks of May to itself in the Leadoff Spot. My annual Leadoff Spot chart, with (Summer Ranking):

2000: $188M Gladiator (#2)
2001: $202M Mummy 2 (#3)
2002: $403M Spidey (#1)
2003: $214M X-2 (#5)
2004: $120M Van Helsing (#8)
2005: $47M Kingdom of Heaven (#22)
2006: $134M MI-III (#9)
2007: $337M Spidey 3 (#1)
2008: $318M Iron Man (#2)
2009: $179M X-Origins (#7)
2010: $312M Iron Man 2 (#2)
2011: $181M Thor (#6)
2012: $623M Avengers (#1)
2013: $409M Iron Man 3 (#1)

Kingdom of Heaven remains the bomb here, with Scott getting the Leadoff Spot based on Gladiator doing well there before. Van Helsing also was a bomb, but that was as much due to Spidey 2 taking July 4 rather than the Leadoff Spot. Origins and Thor did subpar in this spot. I was super surprised that Cap didn't take this spot, with Marvel basically saying it's their spot from now on, and everyone else can piss off. :) They've grabbed it 5 out of the last six years, but perhaps Thor's showing made them want to go earlier for Cap 2?

Anyway... I think Spidey will do okay. $225 feels low...

Quote:
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes -- The Rise film did better than expected and Mojo thinks this one could do the same. Plus it will come at a time in which there isn't much competition (mid-July).


Rise of the Planet of the Apes did well, but I wonder how much of that was due to a really crappy end of summer in 2011. Cap 1 just kind of fell off after it's first weekend, and was on its 3rd by then. Nothing of note came out after it that could draw viewers away. This was moved up into the middle of July. It's got Transformers a little way in front of it, Herc a could of weeks after, and then Guardians of the Galaxy to start August. It's going to need to open strongly to get to $240M. Is there that much buzz about it?


Quote:
Godzilla -- Could be the sleeper, if the reviews are good. They seem to be taking the approach for World War Z, focusing more on the humans than the monster.


Sleeper... or could flop. Really hard to tell. The ad/trailer campaign is yet another post-apocalyptic vibe, but looks pretty cool (though I hope Godzilla turns out to be the Face here with the stupid humans the Heels :P ). But monster movies... it could go bad.

I think a lot of its box office will be dependent on what's around it: Spidey prior and X-Men after. If X-men is as strong as Mojo thinks ($290M), then there's no way Godzilla does $230M - they're back-to-back weekends, and prior to Summer Weekdays. If Spidey is a phenom (as in zooming towards $300M), there probably isn't enough air for Godzilla between Spidey and X-Men. Example:

Star Trek last year was coming off a well reviewed / liked reboot. Problem? Stuck close to a red hot Iron Man 3 and having Fast & Furious 6 surprise everyone by how hot it was over Memorial Day Weekend. Trek 2 ended up doing $228.

I'm not sure that Godzilla has the pull of Trek 2 coming off the reboot.


Quote:
Guardians of the Galaxy -- Another potential sleeper, but it doesn't have heroes with mainstream appeal and it comes out in August. More likely it will need strong reviews to get $200 million.


The big thing: if this is Good, it's going to do a lot of money. There just isn't any comp the balance of August (unless Lucy and Expendables 3 do far better than projected), and we'll be far removed from the Super Heros of May. If this gets some good reviews and buzz, I could see this zooming past $250M.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri May 02, 2014 2:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo's forecast for Amazing Spidey 2:

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3833&p=.htm

They figure it should do at least $81 million, based on the early Thursday numbers.

With that said, a comment from one of my co-workers, who got a text message from a friend of his who saw it Thursday night:

"Electro's origin reminded me of Riddler's origin in Batman and Robin."

Oh, and too many villains on top of that. Along with Electro, they will introduce Rhino and get The Green Goblin rolling.

ETA: And then there's Rotten Tomatoes:

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_amazing_spider_man_2/
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri May 02, 2014 3:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Top Critics is brutal:

78% Amazing Spidey
37% Amazing Spidey 2

Amazing Spidey
Average Rating: 6.9/10
Critic Reviews: 45
Fresh: 35 | Rotten: 10

Amazing Spidey2
Average Rating: 5.8/10
Critic Reviews: 46
Fresh: 17 | Rotten: 29

The average ratings isn't massively different, but the Fresh/Rotten is a wild swing.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun May 04, 2014 8:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo's weekend estimates:

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

Amazing Spidey 2 is below Cap Am 2's Friday number.

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3835&p=.htm

Something tells me that wasn't what the studio was hoping for.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2014 9:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Spidey looks below Cap every day, though Sunday looks very close in the estimates. Mojo predicted $91M heading into the weekend, and it looks to have come in around $92M.

It's hard to see Spidey toping Cap's number, which is on it's way to be comfortably above $250M. Mojo predicted $225M for Spidey, and that doesn't seem unreasonable at this point. It has next weekend largely to itself before Godzilla comes out on 5/16. That should take it a good disatance towards $200M. Amazing Spidey 1 did $34M on it's second weekend, but that was after a Tuesday 7/3 opening, so its second weekend was the 11th-13th days of release, frontloaded with a holiday and all those summer weekdays. AS-2 isn't going to drop down to $34M, but it's also not going to be picking up big weekday numbers since kids are still in school.

John
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2014 12:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cap is a much better movie.--Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri May 09, 2014 3:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cap 2 keeps plugging away:

5th Week
$9,996,534 Cap 2
$6,526,047 Thor 2

It's still beating Thor 2 everyday, though the weekday numbers are getting closer. Thor 2 had $10M left in the tank at this point, while lit looks like Cap 2 probably has $15M or so left in the tank. I'm guessing $255M+ for it. Depends a lot on how much Neighbors bites out of it this weekend, and Godzilla next weekend before the avalanche of summer movies hits.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun May 11, 2014 7:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Friday's numbers are in:

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

A good start for Neighbors, while Amazing Spidey 2 was hit hard.

Spidey will be limping to $200 million at this point.
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