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Box Office Thread 2015
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 19, 2015 10:41 am    Post subject: Box Office Thread 2015 Reply with quote

Mojo predicted a $42M weekend and $49M 4-day for American Sniper.

It pulled in an estimated $89M over the three-day, and is projected to now do $105M on the four-day.

Obviously the first major hit of the new year.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 30, 2015 1:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Batshit crazy second weekend for Sniper, pulling in $64M+. Was over $215M by the end of Thursday, and won't really be challenged this weekend. Looks like a $300M movie, which is pretty much a Phenom for a movie of its type.

Mojo doesn't even have a comp chart for it, since it's pretty unique in the business it's doing.

It has no chance of finishing the year as #1 with Avengers, HG 3.2 and Star Wars 7 all coming out. There are other movies like FF7 that will probably top $300M as well. But you wonder if it can lay down a marker that leaves it in the Top 5 by the end of the year.

Not a fan of the movie, and it's not one that I'm rooting for to put up some cool numbers. But can't ignore that it's doing nutty business.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sniper is one of those films that I think a lot of people initially went to see because they think it's a "patriotic" film, when it's really a "war can do funny things to the people who fight it" film. Or they thought they had to rally behind the guy it's based around.

The reviews I've read basically say the same thing: It's a good film overall, but really lacks character depth. I don't know if I'll ever check it out, though.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2015 11:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not saying it's an awful movie. It's generic, with a lead character who isn't interesting other than he killed a lot of people. The screenplay is mediocre / generic, the wife character is mediocre / generic (there are movies to be made focusing just on the *wives* of these two wars). That it got nominated is gobsmacking. :/
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 17, 2015 12:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Holy crud... Fifty Shades of Grey made $93M over the four-day, and another $158M over seas (now up to $172M overseas). Good lord.

Sniper pulled in another $19M to go past $300M. It continues to decline at a slow rate: down just -29% over the weekend. It doesn't have $400M baring an Oscar miracle leading to a ton of people going to watch it (again). But it sure looks like it has the legs to get to $350M.

SpongeBob is already over $100M, pulling in $40M over the holiday weekend.

Kingsman did a decent $41M that gets lost under 50Shades. Don't know how much it will have in terms of legs.

* * * * *

Focus is the week after the Oscars. Will Smith's first movie since After Earth, which really was his son's movie. It's Will's first non-Summer/Winter Box Office Wheelhouse release since Hitch way back in Feb 2005. Other than Seven Pounds and After Earth, Smith has a long string of $140Mish and beyond movies going back to 2002. On the other hand, he release just two movies in 2009-2014. You could argue that he was the most bankable actor of the 2000s (2002-2008 really), but that's been quite some time. Just MIB3 since then doing good business. You wonder if he's pissed away his box office through (i) inactivity and (ii) a really bad choice of using himself to get over his son.
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 27, 2015 6:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

50 Shades isn't a phenom:

$85M Opening Weekend ($93M four-day holiday weekend)
$22M 2nd Weekend (-73.9%)

Per Mojo:

Quote:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4029&p=.htm

It's the second-biggest decline ever for a movie playing at over 3,000 locations; the worst belongs to the Friday the 13th remake, which fell 80 percent on this same weekend in 2009.


Mojo thinks it will be down to $10M this weekend. It's up to $136M right now. $200M doesn't seem likely, but it's $11M up on the first Twilight movie, and beating it every day from Sun-Thu in the second week. Twilight got to $192M, so there's a little margin to work with there if it keeps up with Twlight's pace.

With luck, it won't. ;)

Big test this weekend for Will Smith. Mojo is predicting a $21M opening, which is even lower than the $27M that After Earth did. That would be a bad sign for Will. 54% TomatoMeter over at Rotten Tomatoes, which isn't the worst but not a solid strong movie either.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2015 2:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$19.1M for Focus.

Will Smith might need to rebuild his career by (i) pairing up with another big star for a Big Movie, (ii) getting into the comic book movement, or (iii) tapping into his past successes for a sequel.

He has Concussion due on Christmas:

"A look at how American football players suffer from major head injuries and life-long debilitating problems as a result of repeated concussions and efforts by the National Football League to deny it."

This is... odd. Smith is playing a doctor who discovers CTE. This doesn't read like a hit, and instead like it's trying to get Oscar attention... though you don't release Oscar movies on 12/25 anymore. Ridley Scott production, though he's not directing. This is... odd.

Suicide Squad is in pre-production:

"A secret government agency run by Amanda Waller, named A.R.G.U.S creates a task force comprised of super villains. They call it: the Suicide Squad because sometimes... they don't come back. They are assigned to execute dangerous tasks in exchange for shorter prison sentences. "

That's directed by Fury's director. Margot Robbie at Harley Quinn, Smith as Deadshot, Jared Leto as The Joker. August 2016 release. Smith getting in on the comic book craze.

Bad Boys 3 is suppose to be in the works, supposedly the script is done. Michael Bay wants to do it, and of course Martin Lawrence does. Smith went for the safety of Men In Black 3 when doing his "comeback" in 2012. Couldn't be surprised if he looks to the safety of BB3 is things flop with Concussion and Suicide Squad.

John
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$67,877,361 opening last weekend for Cinderella and $52,263,680 for Divergent 2 this weekend.

Already have a number of $100M movies, and we're only in late March:

$163,839,685 50 Shades
$158,838,829 SpongeBob
$122,516,793 Cinderella
$114,597,783 Kingsman

Cinderella pulled in $34M on it's second weekend. Mojo chart on similar movies:

http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=weekend&id=aliceoz.htm

It's $22M behind Oz which came out at about the same time and ended up making $234M. I tend to think that means it's going to come up a bit short of $200M. I don't think the Maleficent box office is terribly relevant given that movie has Summer Weekdays to make up for lower weekends than Oz (and Cinderella). Still, Cinderella should get up around $170M+ or $180M+. $95M cost, and it's also made $131M overseas already... this is going to be a very profitable movie.

Kingsman was still pulling in $4M over the weekend, so it has some legs left. It's made $180M overseas, so it's closing in on $300M+ in box office world wide on a $81M cost. The creator and director stated before it even came out that they'd like to do a sequel if it made enough money. My guess is that at that level of Box Office / Cost ratio that Fox is going to try to line people up, including Firth is he wants another payday.

Divergent 2 is in the same ballpark as the first one ($52M for 2 vs $54M for 1). 1 ended up making $150M, so this looks like a safe bet to get to $100M as well.

Taken 3 isn't getting to $100M like the first two, and Run All Night has bombed with it probably being stupid to release it so close to Taken 3.

Focus remains a stunning bomb at just $49M, another $71M overseas. They did make it surprisingly cheap: $50M budget. Given Smith use to be in the $20M or so range, one wonders if he took a big chunk of the back end in return for a lower upfront. Anyway... this does take a major bite out of his former glory as a King of the Box Office, if not the #1 draw in his prime. We could toss of his last movie as being the fault of his kid, but this one is hard to explain away. Mentioned in the last post that he's already locked into his releases for later this year and 2016, with Bad Boy III a ways from hitting.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Mon Mar 23, 2015 6:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SPOILER ALERT!!!!

Firth dies in the movie. It's the kid returning.

Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2015 10:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

By Jove, is Colin Firth returning for a 'Kingsman' sequel?

Quote:
We never see the body or a funeral after the good guys save the day, and it might be because director Matthew Vaughn told us he has plans for Firth’s possible return:

“A lot of people are very upset that Colin might not be in the sequel but I’m coming up with ideas at the moment. If people buy tickets in America, I’ve got a feeling we’ll figure out a way for having Colin back.”


The thing is based on a comic book. You know comic books, Steve. Everyone dies... and everyone comes back.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri Mar 27, 2015 9:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I know we still have a full month before the summer box office season officially kicks off, but it's slow at work before the baseball games, so I figured I'd examine what's on the schedule.

* Avengers: Age of Ultron

Of course, all eyes will be on this one to see what it does, given that the first Avengers drew $623M in domestic box office alone. As we go through the releases on tap, there just isn't that many that scream "big box office attraction." You have to wonder how much of that is because of the Avengers flick. I'm sure there will be plenty of speculation that this flick will set opening weekend records.

* Mad Max: Fury Road

And here we go with dipping into a cult franchise from the 1980s. I know very little about what it's all about. I have no idea whether or not it might be considered a sleeper. I would guess studio expectations are low, since the 80s flicks did modest, but not big, business. Then again, who knows what the production budget is.

* Tomorrowland

Disney seems to be pretty big on this flick, giving it the Memorial Day weekend. Again, don't know much about it, but they've got Brad Bird of Pixar fame directing, and George Clooney in a prominent role, so I would imagine Disney has high hopes for it. Could depend a lot on reviews and word of mouth.

* Poltergeist

This summer's box office schedule is filled with a bunch of horror flicks, this one based off a 1980s flick. I remember watching the original and how much it freaked me out, and how one of my friends remarked there was no way the original should have had a PG rating (we were all 10 years old when we watched it!). Again, it got the Memorial Day weekend, so the studio probably thinks it can do good business. But I wonder if the glut of horror flicks this summer, plus this being yet another remake of a previous film, might dampen interest.

* San Andreas

The Rock headlines this film. Yeah, that's about all I've got. Some of his films have done decent business. We'll see what this one does.

* Jurassic World

And Steven Spielberg got somebody to do another Jurassic Park flick. The first one did strong business ($357M in 1993), but it declined in later installments. I'm guessing the studio and Spielberg think the time is right to give it another go. We'll see if it works.

* Inside Out

Pixar's latest installment. Pixar films usually do good business, but there was no film from the studio last year. Perhaps taking a year off has whetted people's appetites for another flick. With Pixar, it always seems that the films that do the best business are the ones that get the strongest word of mouth. I suspect this one will be no different.

* Ted 2

This movie was going to happen, regardless of how Seth McFarlane's other movie projects fared. I would expect a lot of anticipation for this one, and it will likely outperform the first flick's opening weekend. How well it performs overall depends on its legs, something the first flick definitely had.

* Magic Mike XXL

Interesting how this film got the July 4 opening (July 1 is really all about pulling in the July 4 box). What made the first film so impressive was a low budget with a very high rate of return. There's no word on the budget for this one, but one would have to think the studio kept it low again. If so, it has a good chance of a high rate of return.

* Terminator: Genesys

So they are bringing Arnold back for the Terminator series. What's interesting is the first flick did modest business, but became popular on cable and movie rentals, that it propelled the second flick to monster business. The other two have done modest business, so I suspect the studio was up for another flick, but certainly seems to hope Arnold's return will give it a boost. And then there's the July 4 opening to consider.

* Ant-Man

The wild card of the summer box office. They're not even going to the Hank Pym version, which would immediately suggest an eventual tie-in with The Avengers (and for all we know, they may try to tie it in, anyway). Ant-Man hasn't been a big name among the Marvel superheroes, but neither were the Guardians of the Galaxy, and we all know how that one turned out. If Marvel Studios can draw $200M from Ant-Man, then it bodes very well for the studio's future and what interest should be like in its forthcoming films that aren't tied to Avengers.

* Pan

Another fairy tale character getting a new interpretation in film. We've seen new interpretations of the likes of Sleeping Beauty and Cinderella draw plenty of interest. Remains to be seen if it carries over to this installment of Peter Pan. For comparison, the 1991 interpretation, Hook, did $119M back in 1991, a good number.

* Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation

And they continue with Tom Cruise headlining a franchise. The last one they did in 2011 did more than $200M. I suspect this one could do the same, especially since the competition doesn't appear to be strong.

* Fantastic Four

Fox gives it another go with the franchise. If it does at least $200M, then you would figure the studio will keep rolling with it. If it bombs, though, I'm betting Fox just gives it up, even if they seem intent on building to an X-Men/FF flick.

I don't have much more to add about other films, except to roll out this list of horror films that will come out along with Poltergeist: Before I Wake, Insidious Chapter 3, The Gallows, The Gift, Sinister 2, Regression. Just seems like a lot for one summer.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 27, 2015 10:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A lot to get at there, so I'll do some bites over the next few weeks. :)

On Inside Out, one has a little bit of faith because it's directed by Pete Docter and it's his story. He's done the original Monsters Inc. and Up, with Up being the last great original movie Pixar did before going into their recent mode of sequel-rama (3 out of the last 4). Conceptually, this sounds like it could be a really good Docter-style movie:

Quote:
Riley is uprooted from her Midwest life when her father starts a new job in San Francisco. Riley and everyone else are guided by their emotions — Joy, Fear, Anger, Disgust, and Sadness. The personified emotions live in Headquarters, the control center inside Riley’s mind, where they help advise her through everyday life. As Riley and her emotions struggle to adjust to a new life in San Francisco, turmoil ensues in Headquarters, when Sadness accidentally causes herself and Joy to get lost within the rest of Riley's Mind. Although Joy, Riley’s main and most important emotion, tries to keep things positive, the remaining emotions conflict on how best to navigate a new city, house and school, while Joy and Sadness trek through the rest of Riley's Mind (including "Imagination Land" and "Dream Productions"), the latter slowly discovering the bright side of life


There's a heck of a lot to play with there, with the contrasting "adventure" of Joy & Sadness with Riley's own in the Real World. Like Up and Monsters, it's one of those concepts where you read it on paper and think it either nails it or ends up weak, and having Docter at the helm makes you feel much more comfortable.

Whether it turns into being a semi-phenom like Up ($293M, most since Nemo and only topped since by the super phenom of TS3) or settles into a more typical Pixar $200M to $250M range is hard to tell. Monsters 2 did $268M in the US, and $743M worldwide to trail only TS3 and Nemo as the biggest worldwide Pixar movies ever. Kind of a sign that Pixar isn't dead after Cars 2 and Brave were well below the Up level (let along TS3).

* * * * *

Pixar has one more original coming out (The Good Dinosaur) later this year before it's back into sequel zone with Finding Dory in 2016 and TS4 in 2017.

One other movie talked about as being likely on the slate at some point is a sequel to The Incredibles. Bird has talked about writing it. Bird tends to direct what he writes. He's coming off a three year cycle of working on Tomorrowland for Disney, so a guess is that Disney/Pixar is going to want to lock him up before he heads off to something else. I think that's one of the things that will be most interesting to watch with Tomorrowland - is it any good. Like you say, Disney has a load of faith in it by placing it on Memorial Day weekend. It's Bird's first full creative movie (i.e. Write & Direct) since Ratatouille, which was way back in 2007. I love Incredibles, and am hoping that Bird still has "it" leading into doing a sequel.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 01, 2015 5:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
* Mad Max: Fury Road

And here we go with dipping into a cult franchise from the 1980s. I know very little about what it's all about. I have no idea whether or not it might be considered a sleeper. I would guess studio expectations are low, since the 80s flicks did modest, but not big, business. Then again, who knows what the production budget is.



This strikes me as a *possible* $100M movie, but hard to see it getting to $200M without it being something of a mini-phenom. The placement between Avengers 2 and the mass of releases starting on Memorial Day feels like they're trying to carve out a window for a good opening, then hope to do "okay" over Memorial Day weekend, then "whatever" after that.

The original Mad Max movies all made less money that we think they did. Miller hasn't done an action movie in 30 years... literally since the last Mad Max movie, and has been very prolific either.

This feels really weird. :)


Quote:
* Tomorrowland

Disney seems to be pretty big on this flick, giving it the Memorial Day weekend. Again, don't know much about it, but they've got Brad Bird of Pixar fame directing, and George Clooney in a prominent role, so I would imagine Disney has high hopes for it. Could depend a lot on reviews and word of mouth.


Agree that Disney looks to be thinking big on this. You'd think this is going to hit $200M if it's any good.

Quote:
* Poltergeist

This summer's box office schedule is filled with a bunch of horror flicks, this one based off a 1980s flick. I remember watching the original and how much it freaked me out, and how one of my friends remarked there was no way the original should have had a PG rating (we were all 10 years old when we watched it!). Again, it got the Memorial Day weekend, so the studio probably thinks it can do good business. But I wonder if the glut of horror flicks this summer, plus this being yet another remake of a previous film, might dampen interest
.

Fox also must be high on this given the release time. It's a bit of counter programing to what had been released up to that point, as Before I Wake isn't likely to do much business. While it's "horror", it's more mainstream horror that a slice & dice 'em up horror movie. Insidious 3 is coming out a few weeks later, and 2 made $83M.

You have to think this is going to make $100M before it dies out.


Quote:
* Jurassic World

And Steven Spielberg got somebody to do another Jurassic Park flick. The first one did strong business ($357M in 1993), but it declined in later installments. I'm guessing the studio and Spielberg think the time is right to give it another go. We'll see if it works.


This is the big release right as schools are getting out. The last one made $181M in the US, but really died overseas. Godzilla made $200M in the US, $528M overall. My guess is that this will do some good business unless it's a totally shitty movie... as in Transformers level bad. :)

Quote:
* Ted 2

This movie was going to happen, regardless of how Seth McFarlane's other movie projects fared. I would expect a lot of anticipation for this one, and it will likely outperform the first flick's opening weekend. How well it performs overall depends on its legs, something the first flick definitely had.


Totally agree.

If this isn't a good movie (depending on whether one thinks Ted 1 was a good movie or not), it could go two ways: Hangover 2 or Hangover 3.

Hangover 2 opened with a monster $85M, and finshed with $254M that was less than the $277M that Hangover 1 made. Much bigger "sequel" opening, then didn't have the legs because it wasn't as good at 1.

Hangover 3 opened massively down at $41M (even less than 1), and then limped to just over $110M. Basically a bomb after two huge $250M movies.

Seth just made a massive bomb in A Million Ways to Die in the West. I'm thinking there's no way that Ted 2 doesn't open to at least the $54M that Ted 1 did... but if it's a dog, it's going to die after that.



Quote:
* Magic Mike XXL

Interesting how this film got the July 4 opening (July 1 is really all about pulling in the July 4 box). What made the first film so impressive was a low budget with a very high rate of return. There's no word on the budget for this one, but one would have to think the studio kept it low again. If so, it has a good chance of a high rate of return.


Have no idea how this is going to work, given the first one was a sneaky $110M+ at the box office. :)


Quote:
* Terminator: Genesys

So they are bringing Arnold back for the Terminator series. What's interesting is the first flick did modest business, but became popular on cable and movie rentals, that it propelled the second flick to monster business. The other two have done modest business, so I suspect the studio was up for another flick, but certainly seems to hope Arnold's return will give it a boost. And then there's the July 4 opening to consider.


They're pushing the hell out of this. Arnold has bombed at *everything* he's done since returning to film, with the exception of his small roles in Expendables. The last Terminator movie did $125M coming a year after Bale did The Dark Knight. It actually wasn't a bad movie for the genre, but even Bale couldn't carry it to much. This doesn't look to have a ton of chance.


Quote:
* Ant-Man

The wild card of the summer box office. They're not even going to the Hank Pym version, which would immediately suggest an eventual tie-in with The Avengers (and for all we know, they may try to tie it in, anyway). Ant-Man hasn't been a big name among the Marvel superheroes, but neither were the Guardians of the Galaxy, and we all know how that one turned out. If Marvel Studios can draw $200M from Ant-Man, then it bodes very well for the studio's future and what interest should be like in its forthcoming films that aren't tied to Avengers.


Massive wild card. Like you say, it is the "next Marvel movie" after Avengers.

Ant-Man is a nobody to the main stream movie goer, but so were the GoaT's... and frankly so was Iron Man before they started making movies. I get that a lot of these guys mean a ton to comic book fans, but to non-fans or even casual fans, these are Superman, Batman, Spidey, etc.

What GoaT proved is that (i) folks will now go out in certain numbers to see a Marvel movie, and (ii) if it's good it can rake cash. Though there still is the interesting issue of Cap 2 being flat out one of the best Marvel movies, one of the most accessible, and with some of the best action, and it "only" pulled in $259M. If Ant-Man isn't as good as GoaT or Cap2, then does this have the opening and legs to get to $200M? Will be really interesting to watch.


Quote:
* Pan

Another fairy tale character getting a new interpretation in film. We've seen new interpretations of the likes of Sleeping Beauty and Cinderella draw plenty of interest. Remains to be seen if it carries over to this installment of Peter Pan. For comparison, the 1991 interpretation, Hook, did $119M back in 1991, a good number.


The last one was a dozen years ago and did $48M in the US. It felt a bit with that, and to a degree with this one, that it's been done before. I think if Ant-Man does business, this gets buried in terms of doing $150M - $200M+.

Quote:
* Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation

And they continue with Tom Cruise headlining a franchise. The last one they did in 2011 did more than $200M. I suspect this one could do the same, especially since the competition doesn't appear to be strong.


Cruise has lost luster over time, but Edge of Tomorrow did $100M, Reacher and Oblivion did $80M... so that seems like his low end. He was in that same low range leading into MI4, and like you say, it did a huge $200M, in the neighborhood of as much as the series ever made. There was a five year gap from MI3 to MI4, and a four year gap to this one... probably shouldn't hurt.

Totally agree with you that this should do business. It seems to be the one thing people still buy Cruise being Cruise in to turn out in big numbers. It's well positioned two weeks after Ant-Man and a week before...


Quote:
* Fantastic Four

Fox gives it another go with the franchise. If it does at least $200M, then you would figure the studio will keep rolling with it. If it bombs, though, I'm betting Fox just gives it up, even if they seem intent on building to an X-Men/FF flick.


Fox badly wants this to go big.

The last ones did $154M and $131M, and $330M / $289M worldwide. The first was released in 2005, so it was already in the first part of "modern era" after X-1, Spidey 1, X-2 and Spidey 2 jacked up interest in comic movies.

It's August... who knows.

One more that you skipped:

The Man from UNCLE.

It comes the following week. Guy Ritchie's last two movies have done $209M and $186M. Of course those had Iron Man as the star, not Superman. :P

They're making this on the cheap: $75M. Per wiki, it's why Soderbergh dropped out and Ritchie took over. Clooney was attached when Soderbergh was, but dropped out right before Soderbergh.

Hard to tell what it does as well. Kingsman just did some business, so maybe this does as well.
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Midline Shift



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PostPosted: Sat Apr 04, 2015 6:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I get that a lot of these guys mean a ton to comic book fans


I was a pretty big comic book fan way back when, mostly X-Men but also Avengers, Spidey, Thor, Guardians, etc. and I know next to nothing about Ant-Man. I know he was tied to the Avengers and I think Wasp was his wife, but that's it. With all of the characters available I was pretty surprised Ant-Man got his own film, especially since he wasn't in the Avengers film. I'm really interested to see how it does creatively and financially.


Simon
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 06, 2015 12:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think they're throwing some stuff at the wall to see what people will come out to see. Just a guess, but guys like this would never get a "blockbuster" type of movie is Marvel had their full slate of rights all in house:

Fox
X-Men / Deadpool
Fantastic Four

Sony / Columbia
Spider-Man
Ghost Rider

Stuff like Ant-Man would get a Feb-Mar or Sep-Oct release as a smaller, cheaper movie. X-Men, Spidey and FanFour would be eating up major spots... to the degree that you wonder if something like Guardians ever would have been made.
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