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Box Office Thread 2015
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Insane business:

http://variety.com/2015/film/box-office/star-wars-the-force-awakens-box-office-advance-1201662572
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Wed Dec 16, 2015 2:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I got my ticket yesterday for Friday at 00:30 like in the AM. The 2:30 & 3:00 in the AM shows were sold out. My show they added a day ago. The seats are reserved so no waiting. I figured I could handle that, & maybe the kids will be in bed.

I watched #3 the other day & it was terrible. And so was #4, So why shouldn't this one. It's going to suck. If they try to make the same film...it will be bad. Killing off the old stars will be a poor idea.---Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 16, 2015 10:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The reviews are insanely positive. You're just being a grumpy old man. ;)
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jdw wrote:
Insane business:

http://variety.com/2015/film/box-office/star-wars-the-force-awakens-box-office-advance-1201662572


That settles it. It's going to shatter Jurassic World's opening weekend.

I'll call it right now. $250M opening weekend
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 16, 2015 3:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, the midnight showing will shatter all records. Friday will break all records.

Jurrasic did this:

Fri: $81,953,950
Sat: $69,644,830
Sun: $57,207,490

Avengers 2 did $84.4M on it's first Friday, and Potter 7.2 did $91M on it's first Friday. This might do $100M on "Friday" since so many people are going to see it on Thursday / early Friday AM.

I kind of said as much when Jurrasic did it's business. No one was clamoring for another Jurrasic movie when the series died. People have been going insane for this movie since it got announced, then went insane when Han & Luke & Leia would be in it... then went insane with each trailer.

The big thing JW has over this is Summer Weekdays. But school is getting out, so that doesn't matter a ton. From comments people are making from the premier, this has major "I'm going to see this several times" factor going on as well.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Fri Dec 18, 2015 5:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Grumpy old man liked Star Wars 7.--Yohe
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri Dec 18, 2015 10:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Revising the entire post for this reason:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4132&p=.htm

$57M on Thursday night!

It shattered the Harry Potter 7.2 number and exceeded the all-time gross of Revenge of the Sith.

You're definitely looking at $250M with Thursday and the rest of the weekend, but I'm still sticking by $250M projection for Friday through Saturday.

Even if my projection is off, you're definitely looking at close to $300M for the first four days.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 18, 2015 11:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lotta money. :)
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 18, 2015 8:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Update to $120M "Friday" estimate and $215M weekend estimate.

That might be a little conservative, since Mojo's earlier pieces indicated that if it did $100M (not $120M) and then fell off like Age of Ultron on Sat-Sun, it would do $226.5M. So doing $215M off a $120M Friday would be dropping quite a bit off Ultron.

$81,953,950+$69,644,830+$57,207,490 Jurassic (getting $208,806,270)
$84,424,532+$56,526,635+$50,319,942 Ultron (getting $191M)

Disney would be projecting it beats by JW by close to $40M on "Friday" and then finish just $6M or so beyond it for the entire weekend (i.e. lose by $34M on Sat-Sun). That seems like a lotta fall off.

I think we all know this is going to be massively frontload: SW fans have to see it. But I'm also reading a lot of folks talking about "need to see it again". Some of that might be seen in the legs, but I got the sense that some of those folks were going to see it again this weekend.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sat Dec 19, 2015 7:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jurassic World hit $81.9M on Friday, went down 15 percent to $69.6M, then 18 percent drop to $57.2M.

Assuming a 15 percent drop from Saturday, that's $102.4M for Force Awakens, which if it holds up, would push it $222.9M for Friday and Saturday.

If it does $102M, an 18 percent drop from that results in $83.9M. Add that to the previous number and you get...

$306.8M for its opening weekend.

I can't see Force Awakens dropping too much from its first day, especially with so many people who planned to see it Saturday (many likely because Friday showings were sold out).

My parents pre-ordered tickets for a Christmas showing and not many seats were left. That tells me a lot of people who tried to reserve tickets on Friday (and even Thursday) had to settle for Saturday and Sunday tickets.

So even my $250M estimate for its opening weekend may be conservative. Yeah... I think you have to start thinking Force Awakens is a legitimate threat to reach $300M for its opening weekend, and it will definitely pass $300M for its grand domestic total once you include Thursday's numbers.

Start rolling out the race to Avatar's all-time gross. It's going to be threatened.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2015 1:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thursday's numbers are counted in the "Friday" of $120M.

Disney itself was the one projecting "$215M+" on Friday at the same time they were predicting the $120M for "Friday", which seems to have held up onto their Saturday comments. I don't know if they're trying to be conservative to avoid saying $250M and come in under, or if they have a good sense of how things are shaking out.

My guess is that what they're looking at is this:

$57,000,000 Thu/Fri early AM
$63,000,000 True Friday

To get to $300M, they're going to need to do $180M on Sat+Sun. That would be probably $100M on Sat and $80M on Sun, just given how Sun are always lower than Sat.

I just don't think it's going to spike up from $63M on its true Friday to $100M on Sat, and then top that $63M with $80M on Sunday.

Mojo indicates the industry predictions are now in the $225-240M range. I can't see them being off that wrong to $300M.

$250M is possible. That would need $130M over Sat+Sun. JW did just under $127M on Sat+Sun. $250M would break JW's record by $42M, which alone is pretty amazing.

Sunday should be interesting once the reports roll in.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2015 2:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Funny how much it wiped out every other movie out there and all of them saw their % drop big time.--Yohe
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2015 7:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for the clarification about Friday's numbers.

Mojo estimate is $238M for the weekend number. New record for the weekend, though Saturday and Sunday numbers will follow short of Jurassic World.

Still, Jurassic's total take will be threatened, perhaps Titantic's if Force Awakens has good legs through the holidays.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4134&p=.htm
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 21, 2015 1:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like Disney was being conservative with the estimates to not disappoint. Final number was $247,966,675, lower on "Friday" but higher on Sat & Sun than the initial estimates.

$119,119,282+$68,294,204$60,553,189 Star Wars (getting $247,966,675)
$81,953,950+$69,644,830+$57,207,490 Jurassic (getting $208,806,270)
$84,424,532+$56,526,635+$50,319,942 Ultron (getting $191M)

Just missed the Saturday record, but broke the Sunday record.

JW's coming weekdays:

$25,344,820 Mon
$24,342,515 Tue
$19,895,470 Wed
$17,822,580 Thu

Just a bit over $87M in those four weekdays.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Dec 21, 2015 2:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Having stood corrected on the Friday number, I will say the next two weekends will be interesting to watch.

I think Force Awakens has a good chance to catch Jurassic World's domestic total, but if it keeps its legs going, it could surpass Titanic. If its legs are strong enough after the Christmas and New Year's holiday, then the comp to Avatar may have to come into play.

Again, I think a lot of people are going to show up at the theaters during the holidays to see the movie, especially since it's been well received. So it should keep doing strong business. The only question is how it fares once school is back in session, which was the one advantage Jurassic World had (coming out in the summer means no school days to worry about).
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