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Box Office Thread 2015
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Fri Jan 01, 2016 3:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$29.1M for Force Awakens on New Year's Eve. Passed $650M.

If Mojo's new estimate holds up, it passes Avatar this weekend.
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Sat Jan 02, 2016 4:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Friday's estimate is $34.46M. Puts it on track for a $100M weekend take.

When I went to the theater for a 10:30 a.m. showing Friday, the theater was about 85 percent full. I can only imagine how many people showed up for later showings.

With the holiday break over, I can imagine weekday business will drop off, but it will be interesting to see how weekend business fares in the weeks to come.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 02, 2016 4:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Avatar is at $760,507,625 domestic all-time - it had that Special Edition release that pulled an extra $10M+.

Last weekend's estimates came in lower when the officials came out. The Thursday number is still an estimate as well. It's possible it's going to come up a bit shy of $760.5M come the officals. If it gets past it this weekend, we're looking at an easy $900M+ movie domestically. JW was at just past $500M on it's matching Sunday, and had $152M lest in the tank. SW is destroying JW's pace, and has to have even more left in the tank. If it gets to $760M+ by the end of the weekend, it probably has closer to $200M left in the tank than $152M... that's $960M.

$900M easy, probably $950M pretty easy. The only question after the weekend looking towards the 4th weekend next week is whether it's getting close to locking into $1B domestically.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 03, 2016 6:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Big drop to $19M on Sunday, and flat Saturday after a strong Friday. Kinda strange box office on Sat & Sun. Flat Sat after New Years day is odd. Then the big drop on Sun to only $2M above JW doesn't make a ton of sense.

Projected at $740M, which is comfortably short of Avatar's $760M.

Unless the estimates are conservative (which they weren't last weekend), this might mean that $1B domestic is out of reach. Still feels like $900M unless it falls off strongly post-holiday.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 04, 2016 5:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is 2 B a lock world wise at this point?
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 05, 2016 9:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lock. It opens in China this weekend. It was already at $1.5B without China, with money still left in the tank in every market.

It's still likely to top Avatar's $2.7B.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 05, 2016 10:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Weekend actuals: $90.2 million. Not the record for January weekends, but hard to be disappointed about that number.

I figure it passes Avatar for the domestic total by the weekend. Numbers might be lower this week now that kids are back in school, although some of the college students might still head to the theater to watch it again.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed Jan 06, 2016 1:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Monday's box office put Force Awakens past $750M.

The $8M take Monday was a sharp drop from the previous Monday, but that was to be expected with the holidays over.

Tuesday's take was estimated at $7.9M, so it will officially pass Avatar today.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2016 1:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$764.4M take for Force Awakens as of Wednesday. We have a new domestic box office all-time champ.

The road to $800M starts now. :)
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2016 10:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another weekend box office crown for Force Awakens, although it didn't appear that would happen at first.

Force Awakens drew an estimated $41.6M, but The Revenant drew an estimated $14.3M while Force Awakens drew an estimated $10M on Friday.

Force Awakens blew past Revenant on Saturday and Sunday, though, and now sits at $812M domestic.

Jurassic World had $96M left in the tank at this point, but that was with a summer run, so I would suspect Force Awakens will fall behind the pace on the weekdays, but it may do enough on weekends to pick it back up.

Force Awakens needs $88M to reach $900M domestic, and I think that's a reasonable estimate for the rest of its run.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2016 1:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$42,353,785 vs $29,242,025 SW vs JW weekend now that the actuals came out.

JW won its first weekday on Thu, and first weekend on Fri since the original Sat on the first weekend. Both are flukey: that was JW's Thu & Fri leading into the 4th of July on that Sat of the weekend. The Mon-Wed were tighter, but again it was leading into the 4th. JW may start taking some of the weekdays due to still being in the Summer vs the Holidays being over for SW (save for MLK Day next Monday and then Presidents Day likely getting a lower spike). But the Weekend gap between the two remains large, and much larger than it looks due to the artificial nature of that Friday gate JW did.

I think SW has much more than the $96M left in the tank. I wouldn't be surprised if it has enough left to get it to $950M. It also will likely get a re-release of some type prior Episode #8 or Episode #9 to take it over $1B.

SW ($15,476,285) & ESB ($13,276,241) were re-released prior to RotJ. Those numbers don't look big, but they were 50th & 57th for 1982. Those slots made $65M (Exodus: Gods and Kings) & $56M (Dracula Untold) in 2014, and look like both slots will be comfortably $50M+ when all the 2015 releases end their runs.

Worldwide is trickier. $2B is a lock. The $53M in its first two days in China. The twiter guy who specializes in China's box office predicted $150M total from China, but has scaled that back to $135M. I think he might be extreme in those low number, though he's also pointing to weak word of mouth. It will top Titanic world-wide, but Avatar at $2.7B looks like it might be tough.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2016 10:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SW is drawing a lot of older people & I think it will hang around in theaters a lot longer that most big hits...Marvel or JW or whatever. There is nothing like SW. The first one was in theaters for over a year. It's part of American culture. We'll see.--Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 17, 2016 12:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$25M weekend for SW compared to $18M for JW on the same weekend. They're estimating it will do another $6M on MLK Day compared to $2M that JW on its comparable summer Monday. JW had $60M left in the tank at the time. Pretty safe that SW has more in the tank than that, but absent the Oscar nomination, it doesn't likely have $100M left to get to $950M.

Rev is doing good business with another $29M, and the Oscar nominations. It probably will have good legs, so perhaps $150M+ based on the estimate of $93M by the end of MLK day.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 5:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another $14M for SW, back up into 2nd place.

Both Jurassic World and Avengers were in the $11M range for their comp weekend, so SW is still ahead of their paces. JW had $41M left and Avengers had $51M (thanks to the summer starting and getting Summer Weekdays finally).

For their entire 6th weeks, JW & Avengers made right around $17M. SW should be around that neighborhood, probably a little north of it.

It should end up with more than that $41M that JW had left in the tank, but might not have more than the $51M of Avengers. That's in the $920M to $930M range.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 05, 2016 4:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Star Wars is at $899,071,469 as of Thursday. It will go past $900M today.

Hmmm... might be a good night to see it for a second time. :)
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