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Summer Box Office Thread 2008
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2815
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2008 9:06 am    Post subject: Summer Box Office Thread 2008 Reply with quote

As with last year, I'll do a thread in which we can discuss the box office of the summer movies without discussing spoilers.

Iron Man: Up to $222 million and was second to Narnia 2 in this past weekend's box office. The movie's legs have been really good and $300 million is definitely within its reach.

Narnia 2: Opened at $56 million and should reach $200 million. How much more it gets depends on its legs.

Speed Racer: Up to $29 million through its second weekend and it's going to find reaching $100 million extremely tough. It's going to end up a money loser given its $120 million budget.

Where Speed Racer had its problem was with Iron Man, a movie that received such high praise that Speed Racer would need an equal amount of praise to draw a strong box office. But given how the critics have been nearly unanimous in their praise for Iron Man, and that word of mouth is clearly helping that movie's cause, Speed Racer was in trouble.

Indy 4 is coming. The big question is whether it can set the new Memorial Day box office record.
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corrado



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2008 10:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Iron Man's success has been jaw-dropping. It had a monster opening, and yet its able to have very good legs too. Barring either Indiana Jones and/or Dark Knight having phemoneal openings/legs, it may have a chance at being the top-grossing film of the year. Also, nice comeback for Robert Downey JR who may have 2 big hits this year as I think Tropic Thunder coming out this August, will be the sleeper film of the year.

I was surprised that speed Racer failed to make $20 mil 1st week, and finish in 3rd place as well. I knew it was going to be lame but I didn't expect a total catropshe. It may not make $50 mil. Which means its likely to be one of the biggest bombs of alltime.

I'm also kind of surprised at Narnia 2's underwelming opening. I never got how the 1st narnia was one of the biggest blockbusters that year. It looked like it would be an epic flop. Sort of like what Golden Compass turned out to be. Perhaps this is a sign that the Narnia movies will always play 2nd fiddle to the Harry Potter and LOTR movies.

Besides Indiana Jones and Dark Knight, Wall-E the latest Pixar movie and Tropic Thunder will be the next to be blockbusters. You can't go wrong with Pixar and Tropic Thunder looks to be the funniest movie of the year.

I have my doubts on Hancock though. It may be a smash, but it could also be a flop too. Advance reviews have been medicore but I am Legend had similar reviews and that was a blockbuster.

I do think X-Files 2 will really flop at the boxoffice. It looks very bland and generic. Not like the first 5 X-Files seasons and movie.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2008 10:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Speed Racer really sucked!---Yohe
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2008 10:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Narnia 2 isn't good either. Look for a 60% drop this week.--Yohe
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Jeremy Billones



Joined: 07 Aug 2006
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Location: Alexandria, VA

PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2008 1:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Speed Racer did not suck.

Unfortunately, what Speed Racer did was try to be a movie in the spirit of the original series, which meant it wasn't nearly as (ahem) sophisticated as Batman Begins or even Iron Man. Which meant it didn't have an audience: fans of the original are grown up now and expect more, while kids today have different favorites (and tastes).

A movie that makes $50M Domestic might be a bath for its financers, but isn't a flop. Neither was Evan Almighty, which made $100M Domestic but (like Racer is projected to) barely covered its production budget with Foreign receipts.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2008 3:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jeremy Billones wrote:
A movie that makes $50M Domestic might be a bath for its financers, but isn't a flop. Neither was Evan Almighty, which made $100M Domestic but (like Racer is projected to) barely covered its production budget with Foreign receipts.


Speed probably projects in the $50M to $60M range, but not topping $60M. Too much competition for theaters when you come out in early May and lay an egg. Vegas had a small drop, so it's going to keep more of its theaters. In fact, it could come up short of $50M. It's at just $30M, which means it would have to earn 40% of it's box office after it's opening two weeks. I don't think a movie without legs it going to do that.

The Forbidden Kingdom, for example, made $38M of it's $50M by the end of the second weekend. It's down to pulling in under $2M now, and it should have another big drop in theaters next weekend (2100 down the last two combined).

It might get a little action this coming Memorial Day Weekend, but I don't think it will close to enough to launch it towards $60M.

John
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eron



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PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2008 4:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm hearing mixed about Speed Racer, Narnia 2 and even Indy. Makes Iron Man look immaculate, but you really have to look at the arguments.

Speed Racer was a way of presenting Speed Racer to a new generation. I doubt it was ever supposed to sell to the old audience that remembered it, other than bringing their children to it. It honestly has no A class stars in it either, or even B class who could be catapulted to A (Like Iron Man and Downey), so it was relying entirely on its look, style and promotion. While it had a lot of look and style, the promotion was pretty weak.

Narnia 2 is dealing with the fact that it expects the audience to grow up with the film much like Harry Potter, but that might not be true. It's a lot darker film, but I find that to be the right move. Being a Narnia reader, I just don't know where they'll go after the third film. I'd actually end it after Dawn Treader.

Finally, Indy, I don't have a clue how it is, because I either hear, "Indy is a fantastic throwback to the days where CG wasn't needed" or "Indy has been ruined by Spielberg and Lucas' obsession with CG". I'm still seeing it. It is mother fucking Indiana Jones. I hope it makes $2 Billion so I can still get Indy 5.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2008 5:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Speed Racer and Narnia 2 both would have been helped had they received that high praise Iron Man received. Iron Man is certainly that type of movie that may not have had the initial size of an audience that more popular superheroes such as Spidey and Batman would attract, but the strong reviews from critics and moviegoers alike is clearly helping.

A similar comparison would probably be the first Pirates of the Carribbean movie... a movie in which some people probably weren't sure what to make of it, but the strong reviews convinced more people to see it over time.

Indy 4 will certainly be the top movie this coming weekend, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Iron Man finish second. Narnia 2 didn't have the impressive opening weekend that the first Narnia did and while many people are familiar with the first book, the rest weren't as popular.

If Iron Man pulls in another $30 million this Memorial Day weekend, it could be on its way to being the summer box office king, unless Indy 4 opens to strong reviews like Iron Man did.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Tue May 20, 2008 11:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can't believe you believe that Speed Racer doesn't suck. Terrible. Boring to the max degree. CG gone goofy.---Yohe
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed May 28, 2008 9:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Indy 4 drew $126.9 million for Memorial Day weekend. Second behind Pirates 3 for largest Memorial Day weekend.

Iron Man finished third wih $26 million, behind Narnia 2 with $29 million. Still, Iron Man's legs remain quite good, as it's up to $252 million total.

So Iron Man should be a $300 million franchise. Whether Indy 4 gets there depends on its legs.

Narnia 2 may not even reach $200 million, considering how much it dropped off.
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eron



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PostPosted: Wed May 28, 2008 12:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
Narnia 2 may not even reach $200 million, considering how much it dropped off.


Movies like Narnia and Golden Compass always get protected by their worldwide numbers. Narnia 2 may be considered a disappointment but there will always be the money to continue. Golden Compass was considered to be a flop until the international numbers came in. They are now considering making the sequel and reverting back to the book and ignoring the changes they made, selling it almost directly to the international crowd and going small with US.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed May 28, 2008 12:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Compass did $300M Foreign and $70M US. Budget of $180M. The US is painful to them because I suspect they thought the could fall out of bed and do $150M on it in the US.

On doing the other two movies, they do have some issues on budget as well, and what Craig and Kidman will want. If I recall, they got Craig before his Bond movie came out. His tag is like up. Plus the cost of movies is going up everywhere. Beyond that, there just wasn't positive vibes on the movie, and I'm not sure even with the $300M non-US that it got good buzz outside the US. It makes for a risky investment of $200M+

Narnia's non-US isn't so hot so far: $51M. On the other hand, it is having a slow release elsewhere. It hasn't opened in the UK ($78M for first one) or France ($34M), doesn't look like it's opened in Germany ($27), and just opened in Japan ($57M). I would be a bit surprised if it does $450M+ like the first one did Foreign, and of course it won't come close to the $290M+ in the US and $740M+ world wide that the first one did. But it will rake in the budget costs.

The strange thing is that I would have thought this was one of the easier to sell of the rest of the books. The series bounces all over the place in the history of Narnia, but Caspian does retain the Pevensie kids in key roles. Lucy and Edmund are back in Dawn Trader, as is Caspian. It seemed that these three were the ones to hook in a core fanbase as it's going to take the fans sticking with it after that as it bounced around with less involvement of the Pevensie kids.


John
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corrado



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PostPosted: Sun Jun 01, 2008 10:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/sex-reign-at-no-1-may-be-only-one-day/

Bit of a surprise this week as Indiana Jones' reign as top movie at the boxoffice was shortlived by "Sex in the City" as Sex was the top movie this weekend at the boxoffice making an estimated 55 million. It should be noted that the strength of Sex's top spot was due to its monster 26.6 million it made when it opened on Friday. Even though it declined by 30% yesterday, it still made the top of the charts.

Indiana Jones was second making 46 million. A decline of 54% from last week. I would expect it to be ahead of Iron Man till 2 weeks from now.

Iron Man squeaked ahead of Narnia 2 making 14 mil to Narnia's 13 million.

Next week Kung Fu Panda should be #1 but I wouldn't be shocked if Zohan sneaks ahead of it. Panda should have more kids viewing it so that's the favorite. I would expect Indiana jones to be at least 3rd place while suffering another big decline.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 01, 2008 12:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

corrado wrote:
Indiana Jones was second making 46 million. A decline of 54% from last week. I would expect it to be ahead of Iron Man till 2 weeks from now.

Iron Man squeaked ahead of Narnia 2 making 14 mil to Narnia's 13 million.


It will be ahead much longer than that, granting Iron Man legs. Iron Man was down 48% its second week before settling into 38% to 32% drops. It also is in the stretch where it's losing theaters as new movies come out. Jones hasn't yet.

Jones is correctly the "#1 Movie In America", as you pointed out that SitC beat it just one day. It's not going to lose much by way of theaters due to that.

The gap between the two is rather huge: Jones is pulling in 3 times as much a day. It's going to take weeks even if Iron Man has "unbelievable legs" for that to go away. Given the theater drops, that's really tough.


John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Jun 01, 2008 5:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Indy 4 is well on its way to being a $300 million franchise domestically. Iron Man still has a shot at that mark.

Hard to say if any other movie this summer will get to that point. The second Batman movie might do so, but it will need really need to capitalize on the fanbase Batman Begins generated. Having strong reviews ala Iron Man would also be needed.

I would expect Pixar's newest movie to be a $200 million franchise in the States, which is about the norm for Pixar. Off the top of my head, I believe most Dreamworks pictures, aside from the Shrek franchise, have ended up in the $150 million neighborhood, so that's probably where Panda will end up.
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