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Box Office Thread 2016
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 5:52 pm    Post subject: Box Office Thread 2016 Reply with quote

I guess it's time for a new one of these.

2015 movies such as SW and Rev can stay in the other thread.


Last edited by jdw on Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:17 pm; edited 1 time in total
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 11, 2016 1:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The current top opening week of the year is:

$41,282,042 Kung Fu Panda 3

KFP3 will likely pass Ride Along 2 as the #1 movie of 2016 this weekend, somewhere in the $80M range. KFP3 is pretty clearly on it's way to $100M+, though it's not getting to the first two movies:

$215,434,591 KFP
$165,249,063 KFP2

So the questions are:

* does the R-rated Deadpool top the $41M mark on the opening weekend
* will it top KFP3 as the early leader
* how quickly will it get there

Seems everyone thinks the first is a total lock.

I've seen one person put their estimate as high as $93M for the four day weekend, which would mean getting to KFP3 very fast. I don't know if that's realistic.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Feb 14, 2016 8:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Deadpool's opening weekend is estimated at $135M.

Highest grossing weekend ever for an R-rated film. It's already blown past Kung Fu Panda 3 and it will easily be a $300M film. If it has legs going into its second weekend, it could be a $350 film.

Pretty clear Fox won't be giving up the X-Men and its related franchises any time soon.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2016 11:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Sunday number is impressive. The Fri vs Sat gave it a look of being frontloaded, but then it held up strongly on Sun.

How insane is the $132M?

Look at this chart:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?view=main&id=marvelcomics.htm&sort=opengross&order=DESC&p=.htm

It destroyed the opening weekend of Cap 2 & Thor 2 (and of course the first Cap and Thor), topped Iron Man 1 & 2, topped every X-Man, topped GotG.

Stunning, insane number.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 17, 2016 8:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Mojo comp is Deadpool vs. X-Men Days of Future Past and Deadpool was way ahead for its Friday through Sunday numbers, although its Monday numbers (both opened on a weekend with a Monday holiday) were about the same.

DoFP finished at $233.9M but given the mostly positive reviews for Deadpool, I can see it getting to $300M.

The bar has been set for the rest of the superhero flicks coming out this year.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 17, 2016 11:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the difference on the holidays is that everyone gets Memorial Day off, while some people don't get Presidents Day off. I know it was a work day for Scott and that his school was open for business. That $19M for Deadpool is impressive.

The weekend remains nuts: $47M-$43M-$43M, with Sun being slightly above Sat.

Yeah, I agree... it does look like a $300M movie. There isn't anything in the coming weeks that really takes a big bite out of it.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 18, 2016 6:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's continuing to beat up X-Men:DoFP by about $3M a day on Tue-Wed.

Well over $200M this weekend. Who knows... this might be a $350M movie.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo projects $63M for Deadpool this weekend.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4159&p=.htm

If it gets that much, $350M would be within its reach.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Feb 22, 2016 2:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Weekend take for Deadpool was $56M. At $236.8M now.

Days of Future Past had $71.6M left in the tank after its second weekend, and if Deadpool matches that, it will get to $308.7M.

Doesn't look like $350M is in its grasp but it might reach $325M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 22, 2016 3:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the XM:DOFP comp doesn't work. Deadpool opened $42M higher, and had less of a drop: vs -57.4% -64.2%.

Deadpool is $60M ahead of GotG, and beat it by $14M over the weekend with a similar drop: -57.4% vs -55.3%. It doesn't have the benefit of Summer Weekdays that GotG had, and the R-rating hurts it as a "kids movie". So it's not unreasonable to say that Deadpool doesn't have $157M left in the tank like GotG had after its second weekend.

But...

If it has $113M left in the tank, that gets it to $350M.

And that might not be unreasonable.

1st Tue-Thu
$28,347,600 GotG
$28,201,034 Deadpool

Toss out the Monday since it was a mostly-holiday for Deadpool. The rest of the week that were pretty spot on, and then Deadpool beat it on the weekend by $14M.

GotG made $25M on a strong -40.4% drop. It had a great -31.5% drop it's 4th weekend, then an exceptional -0.7% drop on its 5th (Labor Day Weekend).

I doubt Deadpool is going to math any of that, starting with next week. Except... it could match GotG's 3rd weekend with a 55.5% drop. And it probably will do better than that.

It's got a $60M lead on GotG. It's going to get reeled in by GotG, but perhaps only in terms of "pace" rather than final number. Looking at the release schedule, there really isn't any reason why it doesn't do closer to $30M (46.9% drop) next weekend rather than $25M. I still haven't seen it, and suspect there are others who haven't and want to, along with the fanboys seeing it a second time.

I'm thinking it has at least a 50/50 chance of getting to $350M. If it hits that $25M, and basically protects almost all of that $60M lead over GotG, it's going to be up over $280M. Should be able to get to $350M from there.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 24, 2016 7:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Deadpool vs GotG
2nd Mon: $4,465,513 vs $5,343,905
2nd Tue: $5,158,806 vs $6,609,534

Those aren't bad "losses" for Deadpool, especially since it's likely to win the weekend comp by enough to make up for $4M-$5M lost in the weekdays. It's still $58M ahead of a movie that made $333M. It can lose over $40M of that lead and still get to $350M.

I think we can tag this with the phrase of being a "Phenom". If this thing made $200M in the US, that would have been tremendous. It's going to hit $300M early next week. Pretty nuts.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 26, 2016 5:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gods of Egypt looks like it's going to be a massive bomb. Horrid reviews: 9% from Top Critics on the Tomatometer. The thing cost something like $150M, and isn't going to make $50M in the US and probably will bomb worldwide as well.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Mar 01, 2016 8:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Late on this, but Deadpool won another box office weekend with $31.1M while Gods of War drew just $14.1M.

Deadpool added another $2.3M on Monday and is at $287M+.

Yeah, it's looking more like a $350M film.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 02, 2016 9:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Zootopia has a chance at being a strong hit. A lot of animated hits released in Feb-Mar over the years:

$176,387,405 Ice Age (3/15/02)
$128,200,012 Robots (3/11/05)
$195,330,621 Ice Age: The Meltdown (3/31/06)
$97,822,171 Meet the Robinsons (3/30/07)
$154,529,439 Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who! (3/14/08)
$198,351,526 Monsters Vs. Aliens (3/27/09)
$217,581,231 How to Train Your Dragon (3/26/10)
$123,477,607 Rango (3/4/11)
$214,030,500 Dr. Seuss' The Lorax (3/2/12)
$187,168,425 The Croods (3/22/13)
$257,760,692 The LEGO Movie (2/7/14)
$111,506,430 Mr. Peabody & Sherman (3/7/14)
$162,994,032 The SpongeBob Movie (2/6/15)
$177,397,510 Home (3/27/15)

Basically one a year since 2005 after Ice Age went through the roof a few years early to show it's a good window for an animated movie. Some "good" hits in there, and some flat out huge ones.

Zootopia is getting getting strong early reviews: 13 of 13 top critics are positive, and some very positive.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 07, 2016 5:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Zootopia hit the biggest Disney Animation Studios opening ever:

$75,063,401 Zootopia
$67,391,326 Frozen*
$56,215,889 Big Hero 6
$49,038,712 Wreck-It Ralph
$48,767,052 Tangled

* This is Frozen's "second weekend" but it was released only in 1 theater it's opening weekend. The second weekend is the real opening weekend. It also did $26M on that Thanksgiving Weekend Wed-Thu, making the $67M even more impressive.

$400,738,009 Frozen
$222,527,828 Big Hero 6
$200,821,936 Tangled
$189,422,889 Wreck-It Ralph

Frozen of course was an utter phenom. Zootopia isn't likely to be that. But given the money BH6 and Tangled did, this is a pretty robust sign of it doing very strong money.

It also wasn't Friday Frontloaded:

Fri: $19,500,008
Sat: $31,636,202
Sun: $23,927,191

That strikes me as a good sign.

* * * * *

Deadpool fell behind GotG for the first time on a weekend:

$17,202,212 GotG
$16,725,929 Deadpool

Guardians also has a monster $22,906,851 Fri-Mon coming up for it's Labor Day four-day weekend. So Deadpool is going to fall off the pace quite a bit.

However...

$311,484,061 Deadpool
$251,456,069 GotG

It's $60M ahead of a movie that had $81M left in the tank. Deadpool only need $39M of that $81M to get to $350M. It was still pulling off $2M+ each day Mon-Thu last week, so it's still likely to average $1M on the four Weekdays... and probably do $8M+ on Fri-Sun next weekend. That's $12M off that $39M, probably over $13M... a third of the day.

I have a feeling it's going to get to $350M.

One hopes Ryan Reynolds has a piece of the movie, and frankly that Morena Baccarin does as well. :)
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