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Box Office Thread 2016
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2883
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Mon Mar 14, 2016 8:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Zootopia drew $50M in its second weekend. It's ahead of Lorax's pace by $21M and Lorax was a $214M flick. So Zootopia should have a good chance at $250M.

Deadpool's total take is now $328M.

Force Awakens is still in some theaters and is now at $930M domestic.

The next two weekends will be headed by Allegiant (this weekend) and Batman vs. Superman (next weekend). We'll finally learn if all the hype Warner Bros. put into its BVS flick is going to draw big box office.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 14, 2016 1:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looking at the other $200M animated movies released between Jan-Apr:

Opening Weekend
$75,063,401 Zootopia
$70,217,070 The Lorax
$69,050,279 Lego
$43,732,319 How to Train Your Dragon

2nd Weekend
$50,000,000 Zootopia (-33.4%)
$49,846,430 Lego (-27.8%)
$38,846,020 The Lorax (-44.7%)
$29,010,044 How to Train Your Dragon (-33.7%)

Lego had a bit of an aid with its second weekend being Presidents Weekend.

Zootopia is $12M ahead of Lego, but will give a lot of that back on Monday due to Lego's Presidents' Day haul ($12.6M). But Zootopia crushed it Mon-Thu last week.

I agree that it's a $250M movie. It could end comfortably up higher than that (say $275M+) if it has a bit of a phenom vibe to it. Which is kind of does right now. That drop is in the Dragon range, and it had a strong $125M left in the tank. Zootopia is $50M ahead of that movie and growing... and Dragon banked $217M.

$125M would take Zootopia to $268M, but since it's still growing it's lead on Dragon by a lot, that $125M could be very conservative.

If it beats Dragon's 3rd weekend of $24M by say $10M (a nit impossible 32% drop), then $300M might not be out of the question.

It just has a vibe to it... hard to put a finger on it, but that it's doing big numbers doesn't feel too surprising.

Deadpool fell off GotG's weekend, which was predictable given it was GotG's Labor Day weekend. But the $10M locks up getting over $350M before it's done.

There was also talk of an Unrated Director's Cut getting a release later in the year. I wonder if that pushes it over $400M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 18, 2016 1:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As expected, Lego lapped Zootopia on its Presidents Day Monday. Zootopia them went back to creaming it on Tue-Thu to the tune of $6,280,604 ($2M per day). Zoo is back up to a $12M lead, and growing.

Mojo is predicting a $35M-$39M weekend.

I'm thinking this has a 50/50 shot at $300M. Batman-Superman is going to eat up the box office next week, but Zootopia seems to have its niche to itself.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri Mar 18, 2016 1:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

On another note, Mojo does not have a good projection for the latest in the Divergent series:

Allegiant (projected): $31.42M
Divergent: $54.6M
Insurgent: $52.2M

Thursday previews were down for Allegiant, at $2.35M compared to $4.9M for Divergent and $4.1M for Insurgent.

It's not a good forecast for Allegiant. Considering the first two flicks were $150M and $130M, Allegiant looks like it could be a major disappointment.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 18, 2016 6:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, does look like bomb city for a series that did okay business before. Hard to tell how much of a profit the second one made as the budget increased by $25M while the box office went south in the US and was flat worldwide. This one probably cranked up the budget even more as it was in production before the results of the second one.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Zootopia beat Lego's 3rd weekend by $6.7M and with a lower % drop. It's $18.8M up on Lego, which still had $74M in the tank.

If it simply matches Lego from here on out, it will get to $276M. But it's expanding it's lead every day Tue-Sun... by a wide margin.

Lego did $20M on it's 4th weekend. I think Zoo has a good shot at $300M, and if it tops that $20M next weekend, it will be a lock.

$300M out of a March opening... I'd say it would be a phenom.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2016 8:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Reviews are coming in for Batman vs. Superman.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/batman_v_superman_dawn_of_justice/

Not exactly glowing reviews. Man of Steel did $291M as a summer release. Maybe Batman vs. Superman gets enough interest to make a run at $300M, but I can't see it going any higher than that.

Regardless, I'm betting on the third Captain America film doing better business, given how well Marvel has built up interest in many of its flicks.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2016 1:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Agree that Cap3 is going to beat up Bat-Supe. Cap3 is essentially Cap3+Avengers 2.5+IM4+Spidey Reboot, except coming off a Cap2 that everyone seemed to loved rather than an Avengers and Spidey that folks didn't.

Whether it does $400M... who knows. The Cap movies have had issues getting to $300M. But IM3 did huge money off Avengers. Cap has built up good will, though his role in Avengers 2 wasn't as good as in Avengers 1. My guess would be an easy $300M, and probably at least $350M. It's chance at $400M is something we will see off its opening vs Avengers 2 and IM 3.

* * * * *

I'm getting really confident that Zoo is getting to $300M+

Zoo vs Lego
Mon: $3,724,578 vs $1,241,150
Tue: $4,686,529 vs $1,573,324

It's just going to town on Lego at this point. Lego had $72M left in the tank at this point, and Zoo is killing it while already having topped $209M. That's $281M now if it just matched the pace, rather than adding an additional $5.5M to the pace gap on a Mon-Tue of it's 3rd week in release. By Sunday we might hit the point where if you simply add what Lego had left in the tank, it will be over $300M if matches... at the same time as Zoo keeps pulling away.

It's pretty cool and amazing at this point. :)
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Thu Mar 24, 2016 1:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo projects a $171.8M opening for Batman vs. Superman.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4170&p=.htm

They have Zootopia projected to pull in $24.5M. It's at $212.9M as of Wednesday, and if it can pull in another $4M Thursday, that would get it past $240M.

I agree Zootopia looks like a $300M flick.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri Mar 25, 2016 11:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thursday showings of Batman vs Superman pulled in $27.7M, ahead of what Age of Ultron pulled in for Thursday but below what The Dark Knight pulled in.

Mojo is now estimating $166.2M for the opening weekend, which would still set a new record for a March opening weekend.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sat Mar 26, 2016 12:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And it's $82M estimated for Batman vs Superman on Friday.

Probably going to drop on Saturday; the question is how much. Still should be on track for more than $165M for the weekend.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Mar 27, 2016 8:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Final estimate is $170.1M for Batman vs. Superman. Now we'll see how well it holds up over time. It's a lock for $300M, but its total weekend ranks behind Iron Man 3.

Worth noting are the estimates for each day of the weekend:

BvS: $82M, $50.9M, $37.1M
IM3: $68.8M, $62.2M, $43M

Iron Man 3 didn't have the sharp dropoff from Friday to Saturday and beat BvS on Sunday. Iron Man 3 finished at $409M, but BvS isn't going to come close to that. It's pretty clear the legs aren't going to be there.

So while BvS will get to $300M and probably will hit $350M, it's not likely to get much further past that. While hitting that number is enough to justify more of the DC movies coming up, it's not as impressive as Deadpool, which had strong legs and is still doing fairly well at the box office. That movie drew $5M this past weekend and will pass $350M in the days to come.

I'll guess that BvS finishes around $365M,

As for Zootopia, estimates were at $23.1M for the weekend, which puts it past $240M. So its chances of reaching $300M are still good.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2016 9:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Weekend actuals:

BvS: $166M
Zootopia: $24M

So not as high as estimated for Batman vs. Superman, but a slightly better number for Zootopia.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2016 12:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

1st Mon
$15,040,496 BvS
$11,267,610 IM3

That's good for BvS in pulling back ground lost on Sat-Sun. It might get something of a Spring Break rub this week as a chunk of schools are closed. IM3 was a May 3 release, a long way away from the Summer and only the Memorial Day holiday to get a bump.

IM3 did 11/11/8/7.6 on Mon-Thu before $72M on it's second weekend (a -58.4% drop). This is going to be interesting to watch.

I agree with you, Bob, that BvS isn't likely to do that $409M. I do wonder how long it can stay reasonably close to IM3's pace. It's $4M back and has a chance to catch up a decent amount during these week days, before the drop on the weekend.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Apr 04, 2016 8:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Second weekend for BvS checks in at $52.3M. a 68.4 percent drop (62.1 percent if Thursday preview numbers are removed). It's now $23.5M behind Iron Man 3's pace.

Again, $350M is a safe bet for BvS but it isn't going to get to $400M. Might fall more into the $370M to $380M range for its domestic gross.

Zootopia added another $20M and is well ahead of The Lego Movie. In fact, Zootopia's fifth weekend exceeded the fifth weekend for Inside Out, although the latter faced some more competition during the summer.

Still, Zootopia is a lock for $300M and it might make a push for $325M. The Lego Movie had about $30M left in the tank after its fifth weekend and it sure looks like Zootopia will pull in that or more before its run ends.
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