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Box Office Thread 2016
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 04, 2016 11:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
Second weekend for BvS checks in at $52.3M. a 68.4 percent drop (62.1 percent if Thursday preview numbers are removed). It's now $23.5M behind Iron Man 3's pace.

Again, $350M is a safe bet for BvS but it isn't going to get to $400M. Might fall more into the $370M to $380M range for its domestic gross.


I wonder if it's even going to get to $350M.

$284,946,699 IM3
$261,457,793 BvS

IM3 has $124,067,295 left in the tank. That would take BvS to $385,525,088. The problem is that BvS has "lost" to IM3 by $40,977,803 the last five weekend days:

+$12,699,950 Opening Fri
-$11,616,130 1st Sat
-$9,221,058 1st Sun
-$4,463,832 2nd Fri
-$9,493,127 2nd Sat
-$6,183,656 2nd Sun

It won the weekdays last week by $4.8M, but that was largely due to (i) BvS getting Spring Break vs School Days advantage, and (ii) the +$3.8M advantage on Mon along.

My guess is that the Weekdays advantage vanishes this week for the most part if not entirely. Then there's IM3's $35.8M third weekend, which BvS won't be close to.

It needs to fall another $36M off the pace of IM3... and I think it might.

* * * * *

I think we can officially call Zootopia a Phenom, and it's at the point where is't almost impossible to predict how high it will go. That $19,325,291 that it made on it's 5th weekend basically has no precedent in modern animated movies. Setting aside Frozen since it's (real) 5th & 6th weekends came during Christmas & New Years weekends and Shrek 3 since the prior movie can represent the franchise, here are the recent Big Boys of Animation along with Lego since we've been tracking Lego vs Zoo:

$19,325,291 Zoo
$13,941,950 Shrek 2
$13,061,737 Up
$11,998,276 TS3
$11,544,080 Inside Out
$10,911,385 Lego
$10,134,120 DM2
$7,449,020 Minions

It's not just that no one has been in the $19M range: no one has come CLOSE.

Then look at how much those moves had in the tank:

$62,602,984 Shrek 2
$52,039,502 TS3
$50,214,665 Inside Out
$42,769,610 Up
$41,649,680 DM2
$33,242,630 Minions
$32,882,695 Lego

Other than Lego, all of those movies had Summer Weekdays to help their box office. So looking at what they did in the 4th Full Weeks:

$38,529,901 Zoo
$34,664,916 Shrek 2
$34,396,562 Up
$32,742,203 TS3
$28,172,662 IO
$25,888,880 DM2
$20,162,845 Minions

Zoo beat all of them as well, while having a much tighter 4th Weekend:

$24,022,288 Zoo
$23,492,677 Up
$23,316,920 Shrek 2
$21,015,958 TS3
$17,665,796 IO
$16,424,135 DM2
$12,387,375 Minions

It beat Up and Shrek 2 by under $1M on the 4th weekend, but then extended it during the weekdays thanks to some Spring Break help. Then it won the weekend by $7M+.

So...

I have no idea where this is headed. To ponder it having $60M left in the tank like Shrek 2 seems impossible since 2004 was a different world.

I could have included Nemo, which was just a year before Shrek 2 but seems like a lifetime ago in how the Box Office was made. It made $13M in it's 5th weekend, and had $85,723,301 left in the tank. It's impossible that Zoo has $85M left in that tank... Nemo just has extremely long, old school left.

But...

$19M 5th Weekend just doesn't make any sense. The movie doesn't have any comp until:

Apr-15 The Jungle Book
Apr-29 Ratchet & Clank
May-20 The Angry Birds Movie

I'm doubtful that Ratchet & Clank will take much market away from Zoo. Angry Birds is a heck of a long way off to have any impact: it's closer to the end of life for Zoo.

The Jungle Book is the bigger question. The trailers look exceptional, but they also look intense as all hell. There might be parents who don't want to take their kids to it. But even if it does take a bite out, Zoo still has no comp for one more week. In turn, most of the movies above had some comp:

TS3 --> Despicable Me in the 4th weekend
DM2 --> The Smurfs 2 in the 4th weekend
IO --> Minions in the 2nd weekend

Those are direct comp, while Jungle is a semi-comp... on the 7th weekend.

Perhaps that lack of comp has propped up Zoo, and when Jungle Book comes out it will hit the wall. But I'm thinking it at least has the $50,214,665 that IO had in the hopper at this point, based on that $19M weekend this week.

Really cool, amazing box office for the movie. There will be sequels, and I'm hoping that the team is as creative the second time around.

[edited fro the final Zoo numbers of $19,325,291]
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 04, 2016 5:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For Steve:

Big-budget films are getting worse ó and we can prove it
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Apr 11, 2016 9:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Through third weekends:

BvS: $296.6M
IM3: $337.6M

Batman vs Superman is now $41M behind Iron Man 3's pace.

Iron Man 3 had nearly $72M left in the tank and I suspect BvS will be slightly behind that. It would need $54M to reach $350M, which is possible, although it might limp along to it.

It has three more weekends until Cap Am 3 hits theaters, which is the film that will definitely bump BvS out of theaters.

And... I'll follow this with some thoughts on the upcoming summer box office.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Apr 11, 2016 9:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

And since we are three weeks away from the start of the summer box office season.

Captain American: Civil War

I suspect this one will be huge after the positive reception to Winter Soldier and early reports suggesting this one will be very good. After Winter Soldier drew $259M thanks to strong legs, Civil War should easily be a $300M film, and if buzz remains strong, it could be a $400M candidate.

Neighbors 2

The first film did $150M on an $18M budget, so it's not surprising the studio wanted a sequel. Rotten Tomatoes has a 73 percent rating for the first film, so it was well received and I think that gives the sequel a chance at $150M if this one is well received. The big obstacle to overcome, though, is that comedy sequels haven't always been well received.

Alice Through the Looking Glass
X-Men: Apocalypse

Two films competing for the Memorial Day crown, one the latest in Disney's attempt to redo a classic fairy tale, the other the final movie in the X-Men First Class trilogy. It's going to be interesting to see how both films battle for the audience.

On the X-Men film, not having the cast of the original trilogy makes it tough to compare to Days of Future Past. Then again, Jennifer Lawrence is a draw and Michael Fassbender is arguably one. So I'm guessing the X-Men film nears $200M.

The Alice film has Johnny Depp as the draw, but a lot depends on the reviews. Could be a $150M candidate, maybe $200M if it's well received.

But this is definitely going to be an interesting Memorial Day weekend.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2

The last film in the latest series did $191M. I'm surprised the studio put it one weekend after the two Memorial Day releases. The 2014 film wasn't exactly well received. I'm guessing this might be a $150M film, but I have to wonder if putting it right behind the X-Men and Alice is going to backfire.

Warcraft

It's based on the popular online RPG. This is a film that will depend a lot on the reviews and how well it's received by World of Warcraft fans. Could be anywhere from a bomb to a phenom.

Finding Dory

The sequel to Finding Nemo has come to fruition. Nemo drew $339M back in 2003, which is a strong number but arguably stronger back then. I imagine the studio is banking on this one approaching $300M. It could go even higher if it gets strong reviews.

Independence Day: Resurgence

Another film with a sequel after all this time, only a lot longer than with Nemo. The first one did $300M back in 1996. I can imagine the studio is hoping people who remember the first film will be spurred into seeing this one. This is like Warcraft -- it could be a bomb or a phenom.

The BFG
The Legend of Tarzan

A Disney movie and a new take on a classic character. Both come out around the Fourth of July. Don't know enough about either film at this point, but part of me wonders if one of them goes the route of The Lone Ranger a couple years back.

Ghostbusters

An all-female cast this time around. The 1984 film was a major phenom, drawing $284M at a time when such takes were not common. The new version is going to depend a lot on reviews, though there will be some intrigue from fans of the 1984 film.

Ice Age: Collision Course
Star Trek Beyond

The Ice Age franchise keeps on going. The last film made $161M so I imagine the latest one will get around that mark.

As for the Star Trek film, they've got a new director and we'll see if he goes away from the direction J.J. Abrams was taking it. I'm thinking this is a good bet for $200M, unless it's largely panned by critics.

Suicide Squad

And the latest in the DC Movie Universe. Unlike Batman vs. Superman, most of the characters are all hitting the big screen for the first time. It's going to need good reviews to get some legs going. If it gets reviews at the level of BvS, its take may more resemble the last Fantastic Four film.

Ben Hur

And here we go with a remake of a classic film. I don't know a lot about it to judge, but there you go.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 11, 2016 10:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
Through third weekends:

BvS: $296.6M
IM3: $337.6M

Batman vs Superman is now $41M behind Iron Man 3's pace.

Iron Man 3 had nearly $72M left in the tank and I suspect BvS will be slightly behind that. It would need $54M to reach $350M, which is possible, although it might limp along to it.


3rd Weekend
$35,770,094 IM3 (-50.7%)
$23,435,000 BvS (-54.3%)

IM3 on its 4th weekend made $19,324,592, so BvS is already down almost to that amount. It was losing by an average of $1M+ per weekday last week, $7M a day last weekend and $4M a day this weekend.

My guess is that BvS will lose by another average of $800K+ per weekday this week from Mon-Thu, so that's another $3.2M+ in the hole

BvS will do around $12.5M next weekend, which would drop another $7M.

That happens to be IM3's Memorial Day Weekend, where it pulled in:

$5,146,416 Fri
$7,533,154 Sat
$6,645,022 Sun
$5,368,815 Mon

BvS will be down to in the $1M-$5M weekday range by that Mon-Thu, so that's going to be another $4M in the hole from just that Monday. I'm guessing it will bleed in the range of $14M+ from Mon-Mon over the next 8 days, if not a bit more.

Just those 8 days will eat up $14M of that $20M margin that BvS would have on IM's pace to get to $350M. I'm pretty sure that would kill off it's chances at $350M, as it will keep bleeding to IM3.

* * * * *

Side tangent.

I don't think I posted this at tOA. I'll also toss it over in the Yohe Movie Thread for discussion as well. Wanted to toss it here for the box office implications:

http://io9.gizmodo.com/warner-bros-is-in-such-denial-over-batman-v-superman-1769391086

Quote:
Yes, apparently Zack Snyder has the same carte blanche to make Justice League, even after failing to turn the first-ever movie starring three of the biggest, most popular superheroes in the world, into a film that analysts believe wonít even make a billion dollars worldwide. Maybe that still sounds like a lot of money, but you know what actually made a billion bucks? Tim Burtonís needless 2010 Alice in Wonderland film. If you put Batman and Superman and Wonder Woman together in a live-action movie for the first time ever, donít you think that movie should probably outgross Iron Man 3?

I fully admit I did not see this coming. I just assumed, like every other movie studio, that Warner Bros would do everything it could to make as much money as possible. But nope! They... theyíre just going to let Snyder make a new entry in his DC Cinematic Murderverse, whether people want it or not. Cool.


When most of us were growing up, the biggest *mainstream* super heroes were Superman and Batman. No one else was close. The biggest star on the next level was probably Wonder Woman thanks to the TV show and the Justice League cartoons. After that, Spider-Man (because of the cartoon), possibly Hulk (tv show), and then people on lower levels.

This is the *first* even movie with Superman and Batman in them. This is Batman coming back after his last two movies made $1B worldwide each, and $533M & $448M in the US. So...

There is no reason that the first time these two get together shouldn't be the Biggest Thing In DC History. You have to have that expectation, and DC certain did.

Yet here it is laying a $350M semi-egg in the US, and worldwide it's at $783M and not heading to $1B.

It's really weird.

Of course DC is locked into these shooting and release timelines including have JL1 in Nov 2017, and insanely committed a ton to Ma & Pa Snyder to run a lot of these movies. It's a bit hard to pull out. Wonder Woman was the one opportunity to get less-dark on this stuff, but it's already in production for a summer release next year, and the creative team is likely locked into fitting it into setting up JL1 for later that year... so it's probably screwed over as well.

DC could have some box office mess. I'm guessing Suicide Squad is going to do okay. But if BvS had been a $450M+ box office monster (as it should have been) and had been a good movie (as it should have been in the right hands), then Suicide Squad probably would have challenged for $300M+. Now... I'd have some doubts.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 11, 2016 12:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Zoo look for the week:

6th Weekend
$14,353,000 Zoo (-25.7%)
$10,216,452 Shrek 2 (-26.7%)
$8,917,512 TS3 (-25.7%)
$7,701,309 Lego (-29.4%)
$7,414,528 Inside Out (-35.8%)
$6,521,389 Up (-50.1%)
$5,915,650 DM2 (-41.6%)
$5,148,125 Minions (-30.9%)

Wow.

Then look at how much those moves had in the tank:

$44,443,712 Shrek 2
$35,588,329 TS3
$36,068,372 Inside Out
$28,187,470 Up
$29,579,420 DM2
$23,128,935 Minions
$20,832,455 Lego

Other than Lego, all of those movies had Summer Weekdays to help their box office. So looking at what they did in the 5th Full Weeks:

$25,720,172 Zoo
$21,884,770 Shrek 2
$21,122,488 Up
$19,531,937 TS3
$18,275,845 IO
$16,288,730 DM2
$15,260,316 Lego
$12,414,590 Minions

So, it's not unreasonable to think that it can pull in more than that $44M that Shrek 2 had left in the tank. The question is where could that take it.

Here's where each was after the 6th weekend:

$396,782,535 Shrek 2
$379,416,551 TS3
$338,481,845 DM2
$320,393,339 IO
$312,916,835 Minions
$296,012,482 Zoo
$264,816,694 Up
$236,928,237 Lego

Other than Up and Lego, all of those movies where well ahead of it thanks to the opening weekend (including extended due to Wed releases):


$143,074,960 DM2
$128,983,060 Shrek 2
$115,718,405 Minions
$110,307,189 TS3
$90,440,272 IO
$75,063,401 Zoo
$69,050,279 Lego
$68,108,790 Up

That's what it's been running up hill against the whole time.

That it's cut Minions opening weekend lead of $40,655,004 down to $16,904,353 is really impressive, cutting another $9M off it over the weekend after knocking $13M off it over the past week.

My guess is that it's going to run down Minions' $336,045,770. It's at $296M right now, so $40M would put it past $336M. But IO's $356,461,711 looks to be out of range unless it's leg hold up huge: that's $60M to catch. $340M is possible, while $350M would be tremendous.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Apr 11, 2016 1:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jdw wrote:


Side tangent.

I don't think I posted this at tOA. I'll also toss it over in the Yohe Movie Thread for discussion as well. Wanted to toss it here for the box office implications:

http://io9.gizmodo.com/warner-bros-is-in-such-denial-over-batman-v-superman-1769391086

Quote:
Yes, apparently Zack Snyder has the same carte blanche to make Justice League, even after failing to turn the first-ever movie starring three of the biggest, most popular superheroes in the world, into a film that analysts believe wonít even make a billion dollars worldwide. Maybe that still sounds like a lot of money, but you know what actually made a billion bucks? Tim Burtonís needless 2010 Alice in Wonderland film. If you put Batman and Superman and Wonder Woman together in a live-action movie for the first time ever, donít you think that movie should probably outgross Iron Man 3?

I fully admit I did not see this coming. I just assumed, like every other movie studio, that Warner Bros would do everything it could to make as much money as possible. But nope! They... theyíre just going to let Snyder make a new entry in his DC Cinematic Murderverse, whether people want it or not. Cool.


When most of us were growing up, the biggest *mainstream* super heroes were Superman and Batman. No one else was close. The biggest star on the next level was probably Wonder Woman thanks to the TV show and the Justice League cartoons. After that, Spider-Man (because of the cartoon), possibly Hulk (tv show), and then people on lower levels.

This is the *first* even movie with Superman and Batman in them. This is Batman coming back after his last two movies made $1B worldwide each, and $533M & $448M in the US. So...

There is no reason that the first time these two get together shouldn't be the Biggest Thing In DC History. You have to have that expectation, and DC certain did.

Yet here it is laying a $350M semi-egg in the US, and worldwide it's at $783M and not heading to $1B.

It's really weird.


In reading some of the comments at IO9.com, I think a good point was raised regarding the difference between Marvel Studios and Warner Bros.

Marvel Studios hasn't been perfect with its work and several of its films have either been disappointments or subpar, but the one thing just about every film that studio has released, which the studio has done right, is staying faithful to the source material. They are at least going to the roots of each character, even if they haven't always done a good job putting it all together.

Warner Bros., though, seems to be too worried about making everything like Batman, given how much cash the Nolan trilogy pulled in and how films such as Superman Returns didn't live up to expectations. They aren't turning their characters over to people who want to respect the source material and instead are trying to do their own interpretations, plus they want to make everything grim.

Obviously, switching to people who stay closer to the source material and do more lighthearted stuff isn't going to guarantee a good film, but it at least would restore some faith in those who are big fans of the characters. And if you get the right people in place, you just might hit it big.

Marvel Studios did that with the first Iron Man, the first Avengers, the second Captain America and Guardians of the Galaxy. Getting just four big hits out of its series has been plenty to satisfy the fans of the characters, and when you throw in a few other films that, while there is debate about the quality of them, they could at least be called "pretty good" and they are generally happy with the overall movie universe, even if there are some bad movies in the mix.

I'm guessing Suicide Squad is going to have some trouble pulling in the audience, given that this is the rough equivalent of GotG, in that the characters aren't well known (The Joker is the exception and he's the antagonist) and Warner really needs a strong film to make it work.

Given that Gail Gadot has been praised for her work as Wonder Woman, one might think there would be cause for optimism about the Wonder Woman film next summer.

But they're going to have to demonstrate they can stay true to the character and not just make it dark and grim... and they especially need good writing and directing. Otherwise, they're going to find it much tougher to sell anything else that comes down the road.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 11, 2016 1:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
And since we are three weeks away from the start of the summer box office season.

Captain American: Civil War

I suspect this one will be huge after the positive reception to Winter Soldier and early reports suggesting this one will be very good. After Winter Soldier drew $259M thanks to strong legs, Civil War should easily be a $300M film, and if buzz remains strong, it could be a $400M candidate.


I agree that $300M looks like a lock. $400M is very possible, as this feels like the "sequel" to Avengers 2 similar to Iron Man 3 being the "sequel" to Avengers 1.

Avengers led to $312M --> $409M IM 2 --> IM3

Avengers 2 leads to?

The big difference is that people loved Avengers, and people didn't really love Avengers 2 all that much. On the other hand...

This has a good buzz, and may end up being thought of as the "real Avengers 2" despite not having Thor and Hulk and Hawkeye.

If it's good, in the sense of being a level of Avengers & Cap 2 "good", then $400M is very possible.

Worldwide is going to be an interesting one to watch. The Cap movies haven't done great overseas. I think that's where Tony being in this helps. This should get up around $1B worldwide if it does $400M here.



Quote:
Neighbors 2

The first film did $150M on an $18M budget, so it's not surprising the studio wanted a sequel. Rotten Tomatoes has a 73 percent rating for the first film, so it was well received and I think that gives the sequel a chance at $150M if this one is well received. The big obstacle to overcome, though, is that comedy sequels haven't always been well received.


The box office of the original was something else, especially when considering the opening weekend was $49M. That $150M wasn't massively front loaded.

It has a built in gimmick with the Sorority aspect, which on the surface would appeal to those who liked the first. This really depends on whether folks think it's as good as the first.

Hangover II did a great opening off the first one, and even though the $254M was "disappointing", it still was $254M. It was the 3rd one that got killed.

On the flip side, Ted 2 just got hammered despite the love a lot of people had for the first.

This could go either way. It's a nice window: two weeks after Cap, not a lot of comp other than Cap.


Quote:
Alice Through the Looking Glass
X-Men: Apocalypse

Two films competing for the Memorial Day crown, one the latest in Disney's attempt to redo a classic fairy tale, the other the final movie in the X-Men First Class trilogy. It's going to be interesting to see how both films battle for the audience.

On the X-Men film, not having the cast of the original trilogy makes it tough to compare to Days of Future Past. Then again, Jennifer Lawrence is a draw and Michael Fassbender is arguably one. So I'm guessing the X-Men film nears $200M.

The Alice film has Johnny Depp as the draw, but a lot depends on the reviews. Could be a $150M candidate, maybe $200M if it's well received.

But this is definitely going to be an interesting Memorial Day weekend.


XM:DofP did $233M, which looking back feels like a low number for a movie that:

* was widely loved by XM fans
* "saved" the series
* had Everyone in it that fans loved in prior movies
* helped wash away the stink of Last Stand and some of the prequels

This doesn't have the Old Guys, and there's no Wolverine barring a special cameo.

On the flip side, they're throwing a lot at the wall in the trailers, especially putting over JL.

They went from $179M for the first Wolverine to $142M for the first prequel XM to $132M for the second Wolverine. There isn't a lot of margin from $233M down to $200M. I'm not 100% that it gets there.

Alice is "the gangs all back together" off the first one. 2010 doesn't seem like a long time ago, but it could be. That one made $334M in the US, and an insane $1B worldwide when fewer films were doing it... just a nutty set of numbers. It was a March release, so didn't have the comp like it would get in Summer.

This is one of the great "who the hell knows" movies of the summer. :) Could be huge, could flop.


Quote:
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2

The last film in the latest series did $191M. I'm surprised the studio put it one weekend after the two Memorial Day releases. The 2014 film wasn't exactly well received. I'm guessing this might be a $150M film, but I have to wonder if putting it right behind the X-Men and Alice is going to backfire.


That was some nutty box office off the last one. It probably had the advantage of being very late in the summer: August. Good opening weekend ($65M), then the last bits of Summer Weekdays. It made $100M between it's opening weekend and Labor Day. That's really impressive for 3 sets of weekdays and an additional two weekends for a movie that opened to $65M.

The original series in the 90s opened strong ($135M total for #1), then fell off fast ($78M for #2 and $42M for #3). The franchise does having meaning to a lot of fanboys who watched it when they were young, and maybe now have kids. A bit of a crossover that probably helped it get to that $191M. I'm thinking your $150M is probably right, Bob. It could drop off even more and work to get over $100M, but I'm guessing $100M is easy but the $125M to $150M range is where it runs out of gas.


Quote:
Warcraft

It's based on the popular online RPG. This is a film that will depend a lot on the reviews and how well it's received by World of Warcraft fans. Could be anywhere from a bomb to a phenom.


This really looks brutal in the trailers. Yohe and I have seen it several times, and there doesn't seem to be much buzz from the crowd to see it.

It is in a bit of a soft spot of the release schedule. If TNMT bombs, and the Memorial Day movies frontload, perhaps this gets a benefit.

Quote:
Finding Dory

The sequel to Finding Nemo has come to fruition. Nemo drew $339M back in 2003, which is a strong number but arguably stronger back then. I imagine the studio is banking on this one approaching $300M. It could go even higher if it gets strong reviews.


Nemo is high on the list of "most loved Pixar movies". If somehow they pull a miracle out of the hat and it's as good as Toy Story 3 was relative to the rest of the series, then this thing will sail by $350M with ease and have $400M potential. If it's disappointing... it might frontload with a big opening weekend and then fall off struggling for much beyond $300M.

Inside Out did $356M as mentioned up a post. Nemo is way bigger in Pixar lore than IO has become. So the potential for box office is huge.

On the flip side, Pixar has not done well on sequels other than TS3. Monsters U wasn't off the charts box office, and Cars 2 did poorly... though Cars 1 wasn't exactly a beloved Pixar movie.

So...

If there's a Nemo:Dory = TS1:TS3 level of people feeling magical love for it, then Dory has a chance of chasing down Shrek 2, which even TS3 couldn't get to. If the magic isn't there... the box office is going to look disappointing after the comeback with Inside Out. That Dino did so poorly isn't a great sign for the studio.

One of the more interesting ones to watch.


Quote:
Independence Day: Resurgence

Another film with a sequel after all this time, only a lot longer than with Nemo. The first one did $300M back in 1996. I can imagine the studio is hoping people who remember the first film will be spurred into seeing this one. This is like Warcraft -- it could be a bomb or a phenom.


This didn't get the Transformers spot of July 4th. Really tricky to guess.

This has a chance to do Transformers type of money. There really isn't something in that niche anywhere around it's release date. I'd say Jurassic World doing big money is a sign that this could open strong.


Quote:
The BFG
The Legend of Tarzan

A Disney movie and a new take on a classic character. Both come out around the Fourth of July. Don't know enough about either film at this point, but part of me wonders if one of them goes the route of The Lone Ranger a couple years back.


BFG needs to get some buzz going behind it. If it's seen as a "kids movie", it's stuck between Dory on one side and Secret Life of Pets + Ice Age 5 on the other side. It really needs to break out of that.

Tarzan is the type of reboots that have been bombing, like the recent Pan. The director did the last four Potter movies, and nothing else other than a long television career.

I think if one of these comes through, it will be the Spielberg movie... but both have issues. This is a big "quality" issue for them to land as hits, but even Spielberg's Tintin was a terrific movie that ended up making limited box office.

I'm going to add one in here:

The Secret Life of Pets

The Illumination Entertainment folks have been making some hits. A lot of it revolves around Despicable Me.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?view=main&id=illumination.htm&sort=date&order=DESC&p=.htm

They have enough confidence in this movie to opening it in the Despicable Me slot after the 4th of July that DM+DM2+Minions all opened in, rather than sticking it in a safer Mar-Apr or Nov. There's a gap between Dory and it, and then a gap to Ice Age 5. The trailers look pretty decent, and it's gotten some pops from the crowd when I've seen it in theaters. I don't think it has DM2/Minions level box office unless it turns out to be a phenom, but $200M is very possible. It will have been a light May & June of animation up to this point.


Quote:
Ghostbusters

An all-female cast this time around. The 1984 film was a major phenom, drawing $284M at a time when such takes were not common. The new version is going to depend a lot on reviews, though there will be some intrigue from fans of the 1984 film.


I think people have been waiting for a Ghostbusters sequel / reboot, but this might not be what they were waiting for. :)

McCarthy's movie this weekend opened up at one of her weaker numbers among her "hits". Better than Tammy, which ended up below $100M, but not a ton better.

I'd be more optimistic if The Boss did The Heat or Spy level business.



Quote:
Ice Age: Collision Course

The Ice Age franchise keeps on going. The last film made $161M so I imagine the latest one will get around that mark.


Ice Age has been fading a bit off it's peak.

The last one came out on the heels of Brave and Madagascar 3, which both made $200M. I think how this does a largely dependant on how huge Dory is, and whether Secret Life of Pets turns into a $200M level movie. If that's the case, Ice Age will work to get to $150M and need to be seen as "really good" to get past that. If Secret Life of Pets bombs, then it might be a sign that folks were waiting for the first Ice Age in 4 years.


Quote:
Star Trek Beyond

As for the Star Trek film, they've got a new director and we'll see if he goes away from the direction J.J. Abrams was taking it. I'm thinking this is a good bet for $200M, unless it's largely panned by critics.


I think the sign of the confidence in this one is that they moved it way back out of May from the last one. It was a bad sign that ST-R2 (Star Trek Reboot 2) opened lower than ST-R1 after folks really liked ST-R1 for the most part. I had thought people were looking forward to #2. If they weren't, that's not a great sign for #3.

On the other hand, if Tarzan and Ghostbusters are bombs on some level, we're a long ways from Independence Day when it comes to an "action hit". So this could do $200M off a better opening day in the middle of the summer.


I'll add another:

Jason Bourne

That band is back together again, and they're putting "Jason" right in the title to make it clear that Damon is back. The last Damon one did $227M. That might be inflated as the finale, but the one before pulled in $176M.

I'm looking at this in the MI range of old franchises brought back to like with their old stars:

$195 MI4 (2015)
$209 MI3 (2011)

Those both came out since the last Bourne, and did business.

This should do no worse than $150M, and has a shot at $200M. As mentioned, it's a really light action season after ID, and some of the potential action movies could bomb. This also is more of an "actiony" action movie rather than the SciFi or Spectacle type.


Quote:
Suicide Squad

And the latest in the DC Movie Universe. Unlike Batman vs. Superman, most of the characters are all hitting the big screen for the first time. It's going to need good reviews to get some legs going. If it gets reviews at the level of BvS, its take may more resemble the last Fantastic Four film.


There certainly will be an audience for a Comic movie since there isn't one other than Cap. If it's "good", then big money. If it's not good, it will front load and fall off like BvS. Just how much it can frontload... hard to tell.

Quote:
Ben Hur

And here we go with a remake of a classic film. I don't know a lot about it to judge, but there you go.


Bomb... epic bomb. :)
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2016 10:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I had overlooked the Pets movie and the Bourne movie.

The Pets movie was like Zootopia to me, in that the trailers were terrific. If Pets gets anywhere near the praise and buzz Zootopia got, it should definitely do big business.

The Bourne franchise with Matt Damon back is certainly a good bet to do big money.

You may be right about the Independence Day sequel becoming one along the level of Jurassic World. JW wasn't exactly a favorite among critics and it still did monster business. And there are still quite a few people who love the first ID to this day, even if it hasn't held up well for others.

So... yeah, I think the new Independence Day film could be the favorite to win the summer box office crown, although Cap Am 3 could challenge for it.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2016 1:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My Jurassic World comp wasn't a prediction of the level of $$$ that it would make. :)

More in the sense that it's a 90s throwback that's coming out after a long time before movies. It's possible that people will go out to see it. Kinda of in the Transformers spot of the summer, and there isn't anything in that area where people are blowing stuff up in a spectacle like that. It could pull a "open big & fade" and end up over $200M, but not a ton higher. It could do $300M. Or it could catch fire like the goofy original did and get up over $400M, as a $306M movie in 1996 is pretty much the equiv of getting over $400M today. Or it could go nuts like JW did.

It has a wide range of possibilities, maybe more than any other. Even the comp to the Transformer slot of the Summer has a wide range of possibilities:

$319,246,193 T1
$402,111,870 T2
$352,390,543 T3
$245,439,076 T4

I'd forgotten how much T4 fell off. That did a $100M opening weekend, then had trouble adding $150M to that total.

So... who knows. :)

On Bourne, I think it could do the money that the last MI did, which is close to $200M. Damon is also coming off a very popular movie that was trickier to market.


Quote:
So... yeah, I think the new Independence Day film could be the favorite to win the summer box office crown, although Cap Am 3 could challenge for it.


I think Cap 3 is going to set a bar that ID can't reach unless it has a JW freakiness. I'm thinking Cap 3 is going to easily do the $459M that Avengers 2 did, and should chase $500M... if not blow buy it. That early viewing buzz was strong, and all the positive Spidey buzz is only going to help. Big, big, big money... could chase The Dark Knight's $534M for #6 all-time, and if the vibe is really strong, it could chase $600M.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed Apr 13, 2016 11:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Speaking of Spidey, I just noticed something with the trailer and how they are doing Spidey.



That Spidey's eyes on the costume narrow as he starts talking... well, that's just awesome.

Also, the title of the 2017 Spidey movie has been released: Spidey, Homecoming, and it goes out July 7, just after the Fourth of July.

http://io9.gizmodo.com/marvels-spider-man-movie-is-going-to-be-called-spider-m-1770659781
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Bob Morris



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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Wed Apr 13, 2016 11:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jdw wrote:
My Jurassic World comp wasn't a prediction of the level of $$$ that it would make. :)


Nor was mine. :)

I was thinking more along the lines about how JW wasn't exactly a favorite among critics, yet everybody who remembered growing up when the first Jurassic Park hit theaters went out to see it and took the kids with them.

That's what I'm wondering about with the Independence Day flick. And considering the first one did big business during a decade in which $300M films were a major deal, that's why I'm wondering if it does well enough to get near $400M.

Plus, I don't think anyone could have predicted JW's massive take. That one definitely came out of nowhere.

We'll see what happens, but it's definitely an interesting summer movie season, in that you have a couple titles that look like they'll be locks to do big business, but you have several wild cards that could surprise.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 13, 2016 6:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The more one reads about how much Spidey they have in Cap 3 and how much the early viewers loved both Peter & Spidey... yeah, this thing is going to make a ton of money. This is what the movie has going for it:

#1 - Cap 2 sequel
#2 +- Avengers 2 sequel (essentially Avengers 2.5)
#3 - IM3 sequel
#4- Spidey Reboot in the freaking MCU (essentially free Spidey Reboot Beta Testing)

They've got an honest to goodness young actor to play Peter for a change: Holland was 19 when he filmed his stuff, rather than the 26-27 when Tobey and Garfield did their first. Granted, Tobey was super youthful relative to his age at the time, but it's nice that they actually get someone who is closer to High School aged Peter.

#1 was liklely going to mean it was going to up Cap 2's box office given how much folks liked Cap 2.

#2 + #3 was then going to crank it up more, as while folks might not have loved Avengers 2, it still did $450M. Then add in that Tony is the co-star, making this Cap 3 + IM4 even if they're calling it a Cap movie... well that adds more.

But we keep forgetting that #4 part. Amazing Spider man made $262M while Amazing 2 made $202M. Those might be disappointing relative to the Tobey trilogy, it does show that there is a built in Spidey fan base ("D'oh!"). There's a lot of cross over between that fanbase and the MCU fanbase, but it's another layer.

Cap fans want to see this. Tony fans want to see this. The Spidey fans that have been waiting for something better than Amazing want to see this. Avengers fans want to see this.

Huge.

Not Star Wars huge. In that case we could pretty much base our Hugeness Guesses off the fact that JW made all that crazy $600M+... and almost NO ONE wanted to see a new JW movie more than they wanted to see a new good SW movie.

We don't really have that same standard with Cap 3. As close as I can guess is that it's got to be in the IM3 to Avengers 2 range at worst. Then if it holds up on the second weekend rather than be massively front loaded, it's headed past $500M to "somewhere". $200M + $100M means it's headed well over $500M - those are the numbers Avengers and JW did.

Heck, Deadpoll did $180M while BvS did $209M. So Cap 3 has to be in the $200M range. :)
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 14, 2016 5:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jungle Book is pulling in 94% on the Top Critics TomatoMeter with 32/34 giving it the thumbs up.

Mojo is predicting a $79M opening weekend. I've seen some others in the same range.

This is a really hard one to predict. The only kids movie we've had so far that opened big was Zootopia with $75M. This does look from the previews like it might be too intense for very young kids, so I wonder if some parents will shy away from it. But it could be big, especially if it's good... which seems to be the case.

* * * * *

Side note: This could be a really big year for Disney:

03/04/16 Zootopia
04/15/16 The Jungle Book
05/06/16 Captain America 3
05/27/16 Alice Through the Looking Glass
06/17/16 Finding Dory
07/01/16 The BFG
08/12/16 Pete's Dragon
11/04/16 Doctor Strange
12/16/16 Rogue One

Some of those could go in either direction of Bomb/Hit. BFG and Pete's Dragon could both bomb, but it's possible that one of them ends up like Zootopia and (I think) Jungle Book and bank a good chunk of change.

Dr. Strange probably will end up being a $150M-180M movie like Ant-Man rather than a $333M phenom like GotG, but $150M isn't a bad piece of coin for a lesser Marvel character.

Dory is likely to kill it, especially since people went nut over the 20+ minute preview.

Rogue One will do $400M as long as it Does Not Suck.

Cap 3 will be a monster.

I'm wondering if Disney will top Universal's record from last year $2,444,868,557:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/studio/chart/?yr=2015&view=company&studio=universal.htm

Which just pipped Disney's $2,280,175,181:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/studio/chart/?yr=2015&view=company&studio=buenavista.htm


Disney is already sitting on $621,372,133 thanks to Zoo and the money SW7 made this year:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/studio/chart/?yr=2016&view=company&studio=buenavista.htm

That's actually behind 20th Fox, which has Deadpool & KFPanda3 along with all Revenant's money almost entirely being made in 2016:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/studio/chart/?yr=2016&view=company&studio=fox.htm

But... it does look like Disney has a load of potential, especially if Jungle Book joins Zootopia as another pre-Summer big hit leading into Cap 3.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Apr 18, 2016 7:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

$103.5M estimated opening weekend for The Jungle Book.

It's among the biggest April opening weekends and it's a lock for $300M. I think $350M is well within its grasp, too. $400M depends on its leg.

The live action Alice in Wonderland drew $334M after a $116M opening weekend in March, but Alice didn't draw the massive praise Jungle Book is getting. So you would think Jungle Book would have better legs.

The flipside: Alice drew $62M its second weekend. So Jungle Book will need to avoid too much of a drop-off in its second weekend to have a shot at $400M.

But, as John said, Disney is en route to one of its best years ever.
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