The OtherArena Forum IndexThe OtherArena Forum IndexThe OtherArena Forum Index The OtherArena
"Best not to think about it. I know that's a problem for you... not thinking. " -Steve Yohe
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

Box Office Thread 2016
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 10, 11, 12, 13  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    The OtherArena Forum Index -> Entertainment
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 16862

PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2016 7:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Moana is a Thanksgiving release, and probably will have legs through 12/21 when Sing comes out.

Sing is going to get a major push. Illumination is on an insane role:

$368,061,265 Despicable Me 2
$336,045,770 Minions
$365,389,630 The Secret Life of Pets

First time they've released two movie in a year, so they have a hell of a lot of confidence in it.

At least one of those is going over $200M, possibly both, and one of them may be a phenom heading over $300M.

Passengers is screwed by Rouge One.

I saw a strong early review of Arrival that made it sound vastly better than the trailer. But it's stuck between Strange and Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them, so it's utterly screwed.

Strange is going to do better money than Ant-Man since there hasn't been a hit movie for people in that age range since Suicide Squad, which was released all the way back on 8/5. Good lord is that a long time. Only Sully has made more than $100M since then, just a shade over, and it's not a "hit" for the types of fans who going to action and comic book blockbusters.

If Strange is as good as Ant-Man, then it's going over $200M. Ant-Man made $180M, and it was in was a month behind the last blockbuster (JW). I think there's a bit of pent up "we want to see a movie" vibe that is hitting folks, and if it's good, people will go see it. Ant-Man opened to $57M, the second worst MCU opening ever. I think this opens stronger.

Don't see it as a $300M movie unless it's a GotG type of phenom: something different from the MCU that just clicks with the fans in a way that we don't expect. Don't think it's that, but who knows.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Steve Yohe



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2783
Location: Wonderful Montebello CA

PostPosted: Sat Oct 22, 2016 1:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like KEEPING UP WITH THE JONESES is going to bomb. If I was doing the PR I would have pushed like crazy that Gal Gadot (Wonder Woman) is in the movie. I think the public wants to see her right now & it's all the movie has going for it.---Yohe
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2848
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2016 8:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Though Rotten Tomatoes doesn't have a critic's consensus yet, most of the reviews for Doctor Strange have been positive.

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/doctor_strange_2016

If it does get good buzz, it may increases its chances of making a GotG-type of run.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2848
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2016 4:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Doctor Strange opens at $85M. It's the best opening Marvel has had for one of its first films focused on a single character... only Iron Man beat it.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=weekend&id=mcuintro.htm

Iron Man's legs were terrific and it finished at $318M. You would think that if audience like Doctor Strange as much as they liked the first Iron Man, that Doctor Strange will have the legs to get to $300M.

Will be interesting to how it does on its second weekend. I may need to plan on seeing it this weekend.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 16862

PostPosted: Sat Nov 12, 2016 10:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the initial comp to watch for Strange is Thor 2. Same November opening.

Strange got hammered on Monday, possibly due to the pre-election. But it's been ahead since then, and looks to be up $4M on 2nd Friday vs 2nd Friday. Vet Day had some to do with that. But it's now about $5M overall ahead of Thor 2's pace.

Way too early to project that to being so far ahead of Thor 2 that it will get to $250M. Thor 2 got to $208M, and had something of an advantage of coming after the back-to-back blockbuster success of Avengers and IM3. Strange would need to expand the gap even more over Sat-Sun and on into the coming week. There's a chance, but it's a ways off.

That said, my guess is that Marvel would be very happy with Strange doing a strong bump up from the $180M that Ant-Man pulled in, which is the current post-Avengers low for the MCU.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 16862

PostPosted: Sun Nov 13, 2016 11:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$43M vs $37M in the Strange vs Thor 2 comp. -49.4% drop vs -57.3%. Really good.

It's about $8M ahead of the pace of Thor 2. Seems like a lock that it will beat it.

Thor 2 got hammered in its 3rd weekend by the opening of Hunger Games, which pulled in a monster $158M on it's way to $424M. Thor 2 dropped all the way down to $14M that weekend. Don't expect Strange to drop that far, not for Fantastic Beasts to pull in $158M... though maybe I'm underestimating it a ton.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2848
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Mon Nov 14, 2016 10:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fantastic Beasts is going to be interesting. Like you said, John, I doubt it's going to do a massive opening like the Hunger Games sequel did. Harry Potter drew good box office but we're far removed from the last film and it doesn't seem like there's this major buzz around it.

On the other hand, we've seen movies like Jurassic World in which there didn't seem to be a major buzz, despite being far removed from the original series and that one did monster business, so who knows.

But Doctor Strange is showing good legs and that bodes well for its chances of reaching $300M.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2848
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Fri Nov 18, 2016 10:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

$8.75M for Thursday previews of Fantastic Beasts. Mojo projected a $92M opening weekend prior to those numbers coming in.

Though below the Thursday preview numbers for Doctor Strange, Beasts did better than Thor 2 at $7.1M and that opened at $85.7M.

Strange had $85M for its opening weekend, but I would think Beasts is in line for a similar number.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4242&p=.htm
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 16862

PostPosted: Mon Nov 21, 2016 2:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Beasts needs to have a strong Holiday week and weekend to avoid having to fight to get to $200M. This was a really bad opening relative to what the studio hoped would be a franchise starter.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2848
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Mon Nov 21, 2016 12:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The $75M opening weekend actually was up there with Order of the Phoenix (a summer release) so it really wasn't that bad of an opening.

A $75M opening should ensure $200M without much trouble. Phoenix got to $292M as a summer release and Beasts will get several weeks before the new Star Wars movie comes along.

Given that Beasts has received mostly good reviews, I think it will do well during Thanksgiving weekend. Also, because its audience is trending older than younger, that should keep it from losing too much to Thanksgiving releases that skew toward a younger audience.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 16862

PostPosted: Tue Nov 22, 2016 2:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Phoenix opened on a Wednesday. It had $62M in the tank before adding that $77M on Fri-Sun to take it to $139M by the end of Sunday.

Just can't comp those weekends because of the Wed openings. Mojo completely was missing the boat on noting those Wed openings for Phoenix and Half-Blood Prince, to such a degree that I'm totally gobsmacked by the people who know run the site. :(

Anyway, Deathly Hallows Part 1 is the comp to watch as a release prior to Thanksgiving.

$125,017,372 Hallows 1
$74,403,387 Beasts

$50M down, with Hallows 1 only getting to $295M.

Hallows 1 was at $219M by the end of the Thanksgiving weekend, and had just $76M left in the tank. I'd have to do more math than my brain can handle at 1am, but my thought is that if Beasts drops more than the -60.7% that Hallows 1 did on it's second weekend, then Beasts is pretty toast in getting to $200M. The problem is that even just matching that 60% drop, it will lose $20M over the weekend to Hallows 1 because it's dropping from a lower opening: that $74M vs $125M.

$50M down on opening weekend, whatever it would be down Mon-Thu where Hallows 1 drew close to $45M... if it drops $20M over the weekend, $200M is really bleak.

It's possible that it ends up with legs. The movie isn't drawing kids like the Potter movies did, and that's not likely to change. But if it somehow pulls a combo of older crowds and good reviews buzz, maybe it gets better legs than Potter movies did. They were famously frontloaded with the fanboys & girls going out opening night and opening weekend.

I just don't think the buzz got going for this, and it being an adult Potter World movie didn't seem to get Potter fans worked up to see it like they did Potter movies.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2848
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Fri Nov 25, 2016 9:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Moana drew $15.6M on its opening day Wednesday. That compares to the $15.1M Frozen drew.

Frozen finished with $93.5M for its five-day total during the Thanksgiving weekend, a record. Moana is in position to get as much or possibly more. This one bears watching.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4244&p=.htm

Mojo was projecting Beasts to finish at $58M for the Thanksgiving weekend (five days) and it pulled in $11M on Wednesday.

It's tough to find a comparison for Beasts. The first two Harry Potter movies were November releases but both opened two weeks before Thanksgiving.

However, Mojo projected $41M for Beasts on a three-day weekend (Fri-Sun), so if we were to assume that comes in, the $11M on Wednesday gives Beasts $52M without Thursday's number.

Mojo projected $85M for Moana and it looks like it will beat that number, so it appears Beasts may do the same...

...and just as I'm typing this, Mojo has updated with its Thursday estimates: $9.9M for Moana and $9.6M for Beasts.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

So let's do the math: Mojo projected Moana to pull in $23M for Wed-Thur and the estimate is more than $25M, while Mojo projected Beasts to pull in $17M and the estimate is about $20.5M, which means Mojo's original estimates are lower than what the actual numbers appear to be.

In other words... bet on Moana setting a Thanksgiving five-day record number and Beasts doing better than Mojo expected.

The attention should turn to how Moana does compared to Frozen from this point forward, along with how much more Beasts will pull in before Rogue One hits theaters.

But both films are locks for $200M, with the only question how much further each one gets... and with Moana, if it can stay ahead of Frozen's pace.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 16862

PostPosted: Sat Nov 26, 2016 12:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Beasts was $50M behind Potter 7.1 at the weekend. It's lost an averages of $2M a day on Mon-Thu.

Potter 7.1 did a close to $40M on the Fri-Sat after Thanksgiving, before falling off badly to $9.5M on Sun. I don't think Beasts will come close to that $40M given it did only $55M on it's opening Fri-Sat, so it's going to bleed more to Potter 7.1 before we see if it can pick up something on Sun. Then again, Beasts did only $18M last Sun, so that $9.5M would represent less than a 50% drop, which seems like a reach.

That's the worry in getting to $200M. Potter 7.1 only got to just under $296M. When you are down $50M after 3 days, then giving up another $2M a day before what ever it bleeds on this Fri-Sat, there's not a lot left of that original $96M of margin to under-perform Potter 7.1 while still getting to $200M. At some point, Beasts needs to stop losing every day to Potter 7.2. That point is likely going to need to be very soon after the Fri-Sat numbers come in.

Not at all ready to say $200M is out of the question. But it's in the touch-and-go stage where it needs to post some positive numbers. There's yet to be one that make me feel optimistic.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 16862

PostPosted: Sat Nov 26, 2016 1:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

On Moana, I think the one to keep an eye on in that chart is Tangled. Frozen was a phenom, as can be seen in these two charts:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=frozen2013.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=frozen2013.htm

Those weekend numbers into January were nuts, as were those weekly numbers in Christmas and New Years along with into mid-Jan. It had $100M left in the tank *after* the weekend of Jan 3-5, which is beyond insane these days for a movie release prior to Thanksgiving.

Moana should beat Tangled with comfort. But Tangled pulled in $48M over the weekend after its Wed release, getting to $68M. I think Moana needs to have some decent gap between it and Tangled if it's getting to $300M.

I also get that Zoo only opened at $75M earlier this year on it's way to that nutty $341M. But Zoo had terrific legs.

* * * * *

Strange is still beating Thor 2, with smaller % drops as well. It's about $16M up now. $225M looks like a lock. That space between $225M and $250M looks a bit large at the rate it's pulling in money, so I'm not sure. Thor 2 did a very small drop over its Thanksgiving Day weekend: -21.9%. Still, even if Strange matches that drop, it only would pick up another $2.8M over the weekend. It needs to beat Thor 2 by close to $44M to get to $250M, and that's a lot when you're down to pulling in the amount it currently is.

Kinda pulling for it, but feels like it's just out of reach barring a surprising weekend.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2848
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2016 10:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Moana drew $81.1M for Thanksgiving weekend, the second-best Thanksgiving opening. It's not going to catch Frozen, but it opened just ahead of Toy Story 2.

Moana has a shot at $300M, so it's hard for the studio to be disappointed.

Fantastic Beasts added an estimated $65.7M during the five-day weekend, so a $200M intake is secure. Its shot at going further depends on its legs after this weekend, but I'd imagine $250M is a safe bet.

Doctor Strange added $18.85M during Thanksgiving weekend. It has already passed $200M and I figure it will get to $225M without much trouble. $250M is a long shot, because its audience will definitely bleed once Rogue One hits theaters.

Again, though, the studio can't be disappointed with Strange's take. It did better business than either the first Captain America or Thor films, which were summer releases and whose characters are more well known than Doctor Strange.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    The OtherArena Forum Index -> Entertainment All times are GMT - 7 Hours
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 10, 11, 12, 13  Next
Page 11 of 13

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
The OtherArena topic RSS feed 


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group