The OtherArena Forum IndexThe OtherArena Forum IndexThe OtherArena Forum Index The OtherArena
"Best not to think about it. I know that's a problem for you... not thinking. " -Steve Yohe
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

Box Office Thread 2016
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... , 11, 12, 13  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    The OtherArena Forum Index -> Entertainment
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 16862

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2016 1:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
Moana drew $81.1M for Thanksgiving weekend, the second-best Thanksgiving opening. It's not going to catch Frozen, but it opened just ahead of Toy Story 2.

Moana has a shot at $300M, so it's hard for the studio to be disappointed.


I like the Tangled comp more than TS2 both because it's more recent and because it's favorable to Moana without being unrealistic. It's $12M+ above Tangled, and has beaten it every day, with around $2M+ a day over the weekend. I have a feeling that will continue to grow, and $250M is pretty realistic.

The comp to Zoo gets complicated when looking at:

* those Sat-Sun numbers
* Zoo's ridiculous legs
* Zoo's insane weekday numbers in March

I pointed to Zoo getting a break with the various spring breaks around the country:

Mon-Thu Daily Averages
$4,387,931 Week 1
$4,952,621 Week 2
$4,119,939 Week 3
$3,626,903 Week 4

That's bonkers sustained numbers for a kids movie in non-Summer/Christmas weekdays. That was $68M in the coffers in addition to the $207M that it made on the five weekends that wrapped around those weekdays.

That's the key thing to watch for how far past Tangled that Moana can go: will it do say a $3M weekday average rather than the $1.5M that Tangled started off with, then quickly fell from in the second set of weekdays, and then down from there.

There's a long ways from $250M to $300M. I think $275M would be pretty tremendous, though it's not yet a lock.


Quote:
Fantastic Beasts added an estimated $65.7M during the five-day weekend, so a $200M intake is secure. Its shot at going further depends on its legs after this weekend, but I'd imagine $250M is a safe bet.


It's about $63M behind Deathly Hallows Part 1. That eliminates $250M unless it has unexpected legs.

$200M is still at risk unless it stops losing every day to Potter 7.1. Sunday was closer, and Potter 7.1 dropped down to averaging $2M a day Mon-Thu this week. Beasts really needs to stabilize and stop that bleeding. It's just $33M of margin now.

My guess is that it does stop that, no later than next weekend when Potter 7.1 took another huge -65.3% drop. On the other hand, after that it stabilized a bit, and there was nothing at all in the 2010 holiday release schedule that was remotely like Rouge One. Tangled doing $200M (nearly on the dot) was the biggest release that season after Potter 7.1. So its a bit of a catch-22.


Quote:
Doctor Strange added $18.85M during Thanksgiving weekend. It has already passed $200M and I figure it will get to $225M without much trouble. $250M is a long shot, because its audience will definitely bleed once Rogue One hits theaters.


$18M ahead of Thor 2, and still beating it. Just matching Thor 2 takes it to $225M, which I agree seems no trouble.

The big tell will be next weekend where Thor 2 fell all the way from $11,085,296 to $4,811,545. If it can avoid that level of drop, then Strange has a chance to get into the mid-$230Ms or perhaps even $240M. Agree that it needs more legs to make a run at $250M.

Quote:
Again, though, the studio can't be disappointed with Strange's take. It did better business than either the first Captain America or Thor films, which were summer releases and whose characters are more well known than Doctor Strange.


I think they love the numbers its doing. It's going to pass Thor 2 world wide as well. They're doing back flips for these numbers. :)
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 16862

PostPosted: Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Beasts was ahead of Potter 7.1 by a hair, which locks up getting to $200M. The weekdays had been pretty tights as well.

Potter 7.1 had $50M left in the tank. Mentioned before that I think Rouge One is going to impact Beasts soon, and that there was nothing like that in Potter 7.1's cycle, not much of a Christmas. $50M might be a bit high, even if Beasts does better than Potter 7.1 between now and the release of Rouge One.

* * * * *

Moana beat Tangled by $6M to $7M over the weekend. Beat it comfortably on Mon-Thu as well, and is now up by about $26M.

Sing doesn't come out until 12/21, so it's two more weekends without comp. It does have the indirect comp of Rogue One in two weekends, but that shouldn't kill it.

Tangled slowed its decline greatly over the four weekends: -33.7%, -38.8%, -26.8% then a jump up of +52.5%. It showed some nice legs into early Feb, which is why it was able to get to $200M. It's hard to tell predict Moana's decline given Sing, which has a chance of being very big.

It's going to get to $200M without a problem given the start. $250M... hard to tell given Sing.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2848
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Sun Dec 04, 2016 2:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo has been comparing Beasts to Hobbit and Oz: The Great and Powerful.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=fantbeasthobbitoz.htm

I think the better comparison is Beasts vs. Oz. It's slightly behind Oz's pace in the third weekend, but if it can keep it close, it should be a $200M before Rogue One hits theaters. The question then is how much further it goes after that.

There's one more weekend before Rogue One goes nationwide. I could see Moana win another weekend. Beasts... not sure if that finishes second or not.

-------

With all this said, the question will be how much Rogue One can pull in on its opening weekend. It's not going to prominently feature one of the "big three" of the Rebels from the original trilogy, although Darth Vader is supposed to appear.

I would imagine the Star Wars name alone makes it a safe bet to be a $300M flick, but how much more than that remains to be seen.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2848
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Fri Dec 09, 2016 10:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Office Christmas Party pulled $950,000 from Thursday previews. Mojo was projecting a $20M opening weekend for Party, but based on the comparison to Sisters (which Mojo used in its preview), the Thursday numbers would suggest closer to $15M for Party (Sisters had $769,000 on Thursday and finished the weekend with $13.9M).

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4248&p=.htm

And it wouldn't surprise if Moana finishes ahead of Party this weekend.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 16862

PostPosted: Sat Dec 10, 2016 1:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
Mojo has been comparing Beasts to Hobbit and Oz: The Great and Powerful.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=fantbeasthobbitoz.htm

I think the better comparison is Beasts vs. Oz. It's slightly behind Oz's pace in the third weekend, but if it can keep it close, it should be a $200M before Rogue One hits theaters. The question then is how much further it goes after that.

There's one more weekend before Rogue One goes nationwide. I could see Moana win another weekend. Beasts... not sure if that finishes second or not.


The release dates make them a little hard to comp. Hobbit was in that slot to take advantage of Christmas, while Beasts will be faded. Oz is an entirely different beast, since it's not a "sequel" to a recent popular line of movies.

Deathly Hallows Part 1 still is a good comp: same universe, and the Thanksgiving release.

The positive is that it beat it on the week:

$23,563,500 Beasts
$21,687,764 Potter 7.1

About half of that gap was from the weekend, the other half on Mon-Thu. Both are good signs.

Potter 7.1 had $51M left in the tank. The big question is the one we've been talking about for a couple of weeks: the impact of Rogue One, when Potter 7.1 had nothing like that on the horizon.

$200M is a total lock, and I think $225M is pretty safe unless it gets totally crushed by Rouge One. It will probably pick up about $13M from Fri-Thu before Rougue One hits, and that's about 38% of what it needs. Good shot.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2848
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogue One brought in $29M from Thursday previews, the largest number this year.

For comparison, Batman vs. Superman pulled $166M its opening weekend ($27M Thursday, started off well but declined greatly) while Captain America: Civil War pulled $179.1M to start ($25M Thursday, its decline during the weekend wasn't as bad as BvS).

Mojo projected $166M for Rogue One's opening weekend but its Thursday numbers point to Rogue One beating Civil War's opening weekend... perhaps not by a lot, but I could see it approach $185M.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2848
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Sat Dec 17, 2016 9:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogue One had an estimated $71M for Friday, which includes Thursday's previews. That's less than both BvS ($81M) and CapAm3 ($75M).

With that said, it remains to be seen what its Saturday take will be. Given that it's generating mostly positive reviews, it shouldn't take the massive turndown that BvS had (37.9 percent drop from Fri to Sat) but may be more in line with CapAm3 (18.9 percent drop).

Either way, a $180M opening weekend doesn't appear to be in the cards. But a $160M opening might be achievable.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Steve Yohe



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2783
Location: Wonderful Montebello CA

PostPosted: Mon Dec 19, 2016 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So 155 mil. You guys happy with that?--Yohe
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 16862

PostPosted: Mon Dec 19, 2016 9:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hard to tell. These are the comps for the year:

$179,139,142 Cap 3
$166,007,347 Batman v Superman
$155,091,681 Rogue One

The difference is that Rogue One has the equiv of Summer Weekdays from now until 1/2. It's got 9 of those, along with the weekends.

It will catch up with BvS' pace very quickly, probably by Thu, then kill it on the weekend.

Cap3 will take more time, but it will chase it down before 1/2 is done.

I do think that what the $155M means is that it won't catch Dory's $486M for the #1 spot this year in the US. It would need strong holds in the coming two weekends along with extremely strong weekdays on these 9 weekdays to have a chance. Don't think that's likely.

I think it's a lock to do $400M, highly likely to top Cap3, and probably do in the range of $425M to $450M. I'd guess the lower end of that until we see what it does Mon-Sun.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2848
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Tue Dec 20, 2016 1:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Per The Numbers, Rogue One pulled an estimate $17.7M Monday.

For comparison, that's better than Hunger Games: Catching Fire, which opened at $158M and drew $12.3M.

Catching Fire finished at $424M, so Rogue One is on the path to $425M.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2848
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Wed Dec 21, 2016 10:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

And The Numbers has a $17.6M estimate for Rogue One. Should mean Rogue One passes $200M today.

Will be interesting to see what it does this coming weekend, given that Christmas falls on a Sunday and there will likely be a lot of people with a day off either Friday or Monday.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if Rogue One passes $300M this weekend.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 16862

PostPosted: Wed Dec 21, 2016 10:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looking at the 2016 Crown:

1st Mon
$19,571,283 Dory
$17,595,150 Rogue One
$15,040,496 BvS
$13,291,876 Cap3

That's pretty much what I expected. R1 is going to cut into that opening lead that BvS and Cap3 have, taking advantage of these Holiday Weekdays. It will be a bloodbath next week as BvS averaged $3,210,624 on Mon-Thu and Cap3 did $4,577,483. R1 will run both of these down.

On the flip side, Dory averaged $19,564,407 this Mon-Thu, and then $11,017,937 for the second Mon-Thu. Mix in the good weekend legs, and then continued good Summer weekday numbers after that, and it will eventually run down the $20M lead R1 had over it. Dory will wear the Crown for 2016.

The Catching Fire comp is interesting. Despite the win on Monday, CF does very good business the rest of the week. I don't know if R1 will take in more money Tue-Thu, and that $74M that CF did on the 2nd weekend is very robust. I think R1 will beat it up in the 2nd weekdays due to the holidays, and maybe that opens up a gap that reflects a shot at $450M. But a bit too early to tell.

John
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jdw
Site Admin


Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 16862

PostPosted: Thu Dec 22, 2016 11:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another decent day for Rogue One on Wed: up $6M for the day on Cap3's first Wed. Holiday weekdays are helping it as expected. It's just $10M down, and will pass it no later than Monday.

Not a bad opening for Sing at $11M. Moana did $15M on it's opening Wed, then was down on Thanksgiving before spiking back up over the weekend. Sing will beat it up on the Thu take, then maybe lose the weekend before beating the heck out of Moana on the Mon-Thu holiday weekdays. Moana is probably on its way over $200M, especially with the spike these two weeks on the weekdays. I wouldn't be surprised at all of Sing doesn't end up around that number either.

Passengers looks like it's bombing. Hard to tell if Assassin's Creed isn't frontloading on Wed with the game's fanboys and if it will fall off over the weekend.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2848
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Tue Dec 27, 2016 11:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogue One's second weekend was down from Catching Fire's second weekend... $64.3M for Fri-Sun versus $75.1 for CF in that same period.

But with that said, Rogue One pulled an estimated $31.7M on Monday, which beat up on Catching Fire's $10.5M for the following Monday. So the box office for the Christmas "weekend" was spread out for Rogue One over four days.

Rogue One is now just $6M off Catching Fire's pace and it has a chance to catch up this week, plus it will benefit from another holiday weekend.

Sing has pulled in $76.6M thus far.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2848
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2016 3:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

2nd Tuesday numbers

Rogue One: $22.5M
Catching Fire: $4M
The Dark Knight: $9.6M
Finding Dory: $14M

I know it's Christmas vacation but that's still a very impressive number. Not only did it blow Catching Fire away, it blew away Dark Knight (another film Mojo was comparing Rogue One with), which was a summer release with great legs. On top of that, Rogue One did better business for its second Tuesday than Finding Dory, another summer release.

Pulling in $20M on each of the next two days would put Rogue One at $380M and, if it did that kind of business, I'd be shocked if it dropped more than 50 percent from Christmas weekend to New Year's weekend.

I'm thinking Rogue One will reach $450M at this point. I don't know if it will catch Dory, but if it doesn't drop off that much from Christmas weekend to New Year's weekend, it will have a shot.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    The OtherArena Forum Index -> Entertainment All times are GMT - 7 Hours
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... , 11, 12, 13  Next
Page 12 of 13

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
The OtherArena topic RSS feed 


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group