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Box Office Thread 2016
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 29, 2016 6:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dory might be in play. Mojo think it will do $60M on Fri-Sun, which doesn't count the 1/2 "New Years" holiday. It will pull another $18M or so on Thu. It's going to get deep into the $400M+ range by the end of Monday, perhaps over $450M. That would need only another $37M or less to get to Dory.

Mojo may be wrong on how much it holds. But if it get to $440M+ by the end of Monday, then topping Dory is likely.

It's got a shot at $500M, which I didn't think would happen after the opening.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A billon world wide??--Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 30, 2016 10:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hard to tell. It hasn't opened in China, and won't until 1/6. Korea opens this week. Also because of the holidays, a lot of the box office overseas is slow reporting.

It's certainly possible. If it ends up doing close to $500M in the US, it will do $500M+ overseas.

* * * * *

Sing is doing very good business and looks to be on its way past $200M. Moana looks like it will get there by today. An extremely strong year for animation with Dory ($486M), Pets ($368M) and Zoo ($341M) being phenons while Moana and Sing will get past $200M, Trolls will ends up past $150M, KFP3 just short of it ($143M), Angry Birds ($107M) getting over $100M and Sausage Party ($97) just short.


Ice Age 5 was the monster bomb of animated movies, pulling in a stunningly low $64M. That's almost $100M less than any prior Ice Age did in the US, and it ended up doing $470M less world wide than the last one did. That's studio killing levels, especially when Blue Sky's last movie (The Peanuts) didn't do any money overseas either. Their next movie is Ferdinand with a release date right before Christmas next year. A lot of risk. Their recent sequels have been poorly reviewed. But I hate to see us stuck with Pixar/Disney, Illumination & DreamWorks totally dominating the field. We need Blue Sky and Sony Pictures Animation to keep their shit together, and for more things like Kubo to pop up.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 4:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogue One drew an estimated $18.1M Friday, which puts it at $393M.

It beat Dark Knight by $6M and that one pulled in $41M in its third weekend. Rogue One staying ahead by $6M each night would give it $59M for the three-day weekend.

$450M is a lock and it's coming closer to a sure thing to pass Finding Dory.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 02, 2017 3:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$49.5M for Rogue One for Fri-Sun. That's still well ahead of The Dark Knight, which finished with $533M as a summer release.

Dark Knight had $140M left in the tank after its third weekend. I don't know if Rogue One has that, but doing just half that number puts it just shy of $500M.

Beating Finding Dory is a safe bet at this point and it wouldn't surprise me if it breaks $500M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogue was quite a bit off the $59M that Mojo predicted for its Fri-Sun. I'd chalk more of that up to the current Mojo predictor not being as good as the ones in the past. The -22.6% drop wasn't that bad. The Monday drop was bigger, but that could be post-New Years and the football.

It's sitting at $439M. It's going to quickly get hit with school weekdays, which will take a massive bite out of its Mon-Thu numbers from here on out. It's going to have to make the vast majority of its money on Fri-Sun coming up to get to $500M. MLK Day may help a bit.

Two Towers and Return of the King both has $70M+ left in the tank after New Years Weekend. That probably bodes well for R1 getting to $500M. Movies are more frontloaded now, bit that's a decent margin.

* * * * *

Moana is still doing well relative to Tangled, beating it pretty much every day. Tangled has $32M left in the tank. Matching that gets Moana to $245M. Not sure if it's going past that, as Tangled did have better drop and gain % over the last two weekends. But anywhere between $240M to $250M would be a great success.

Sing made a killing over the holidays. It's nearly $60M ahead of Moana after their respective 2nd Mondays. It doesn't look like there's a big animation movie until Lego on 2/10. It feels like Sing is going to pass Moana. Way to early to tell if it has the stuff to get to $300M. There frankly isn't a Christmas animated movie in the past decade plus to look for a comp. Thanksgiving is the standard release time for the late year animated blockbusters. This weekend will give us a look at the legs. My guess... it should get past $250M with some comfort, but $300M will be tough.

Again, this is an amazing year for animated movies when it comes to box office.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 5:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like Moana a lot, so I was disappointed in it's boxoffice. I thought it did better than what it actually did, considering how much it cost to make those cartoon movies.--Yohe
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogue One's actual draw was $15.9M on New Year's Day. As for Tuesday's estimates:

Rogue One: $6.2M
Dark Knight: $5.6M

Slightly ahead of TDK, which was a summer release, so it's still doing reasonably good business even with the holiday season ending.

It's now reached $447M, so it needs just $53M to reach $500M.

Underworld opens this weekend... it might cut into Rogue One's weekend total, but there's an outside chance Rogue One wins the weekend crown again. Dark Knight did $26.1M in its fourth weekend and Rogue One has a good chance to do as much as that. If it does anywhere near $25M, then $500M will be a lock.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 9:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fourth weekend

Rogue One: $21.9M
Dark Knight: $26.1M
Catching Fire: $13.6M

Rogue One slipped behind TDK this weekend but remained well ahead of Catching Fire. Pushed Rogue One's take to $477M, so it's going to pass Finding Dory without much trouble.

I think the best comp at this point would be Catching Fire, which had $67M left in the tank at this point. Again, drawing just $50M would put Rogue One at $527M.

So we have a $500M film on our hands... the question is how far past $500M it gets.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yep. Good weekday numbers Tue-Thu last week as well. $500M+ in the US, and $1B world wide.

It needs another $240M world wide to catch Cap3 as the #1 world wide movie of the year. That might be out of reach barring stronger legs in China and elsewhere, along with a decent chunk of money left in the US.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2017 2:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogue One is set to pass $500M this week... it's already above $498M as of this weekend.

Sing is continuing to show good legs. It pulled in another $13.8M this weekend to increase its take to $233M, passing Moana's $231M.

Hidden Figures, a limited release during the Christmas weekend, has been doing very well since its nationwide release. It pulled $25M on its first national weekend and added another $20M this weekend. Though it went nationwide as of Jan. 6, it's technically a 2016 release because of its early limited release.

Haven't started a 2017 thread yet because no film to be released this year has done well... though in a few weeks, The Lego Batman Movie hits theaters and that might be the first blockbuster of the year, depending on reviews.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Took the sticky off this. We can keep up with R1 & Sing & Co in this, and hit the new 2017 movies in the other.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hidden Figures is the late sleeper hit of 2016. It's closing in on $120M, and still pulling in $10M this past weekend with a light decline. Probably will pick up an Oscar or two, so it's not done yet.

LaLaLand is also closing in on $120M, but with a little less juice. Best Picture would give it an additional boost.

These two are going to end up in the top 20 for 2016.

Arrival and Passengers are going to end up right around $100M. Arrival is closer, but it took a big dip in theaters after a boost last weekend. This weekend was Passengers late-boost weekend. They're both in grind it out mode, and it may take a while to get past $100M, but they have a decent chance given how close they are.

Sing and Moana moved up into the #10 and #11 spots for the year. Too much of a gap to Suicide Squad for Sign to move higher. Still, animation will end up #2, #4, #7, #10 and #11 for the year, with a CGI/motion-capture remake of an animated movie ending up #5. Quite a year for the genre.

* * * * *

Rouge One joins every Star Wars movie in being the #1 movie of it's year, with the exception of Attack of the Clones which got crushed by Spidey. SW8 will top again this year.
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