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Box Office Thread 2020

 
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2882
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:15 pm    Post subject: Box Office Thread 2020 Reply with quote

$37M opening weekend for 1917.

They actually slipped in a limited release in 2019 so it would be in time for Golden Globes and Oscar nominations, but this was the wide release, and that's a pretty good number.
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 10, 2020 2:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Birds of Prey opened at $33.25M, below the studio's projection of $45M.

The studio seems to be thinking of Shazam as a comp, because Shazam opened at $53.5M. The studio did take into account that Birds of Prey is an R-rated film (Shazam was PG-13) but perhaps not as much as it should have.

At any rate, the positive reviews might be enough to get Birds of Prey to $100M domestic. There aren't a lot of films in the coming weeks that would greatly cut into its audience in the coming weeks, so it might have a shot at that mark.

Of course, if people were expecting a female superhero flick to do big numbers, Black Widow and Wonder Woman are going to be much better bets.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Feb 17, 2020 10:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sonic the Hedgehog opened at $57M. Mojo is projecting it could reach $70M with its four-day total once President's Day estimates come in.

The $57M is a better opening than the Pokemon movie that debuted last May. That one finished at $144M -- of course, it was going up against Avengers Endgame.

Still, $150M is in the bag for Sonic and, if it has any legs, could get to $200M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 17, 2020 3:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Was surprised to see that. Sonic has been around for so long that I didn't think it would be anything big.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pixar's next film, Onward, will debut March 6.

Pixar films usually do good business, so it will be interesting to see how that release does.

In the meantime, it's probably Sonic's business to lose in the coming weeks. Mojo is already projecting $30M for this weekend and it's up to $77M now.
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corrado



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PostPosted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So a whole bunch of movies got moved out of their current slots, and into TBA/later this year/2021.

No Time to Die moved from April to November.

Quiet Place 2 and Mulan moved from later in the month to TBA.

And F9 moved from May to next April.

Black widow moved to TBA.

The latest Minions movie is delayed due to the animation studio working on the film closing.

This might be the worst box office year in history depending how long this virus lasts.
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corrado



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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And Wonder Woman 1984 moves to Mid August.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And I think they will be moved again. Unless Trump cures everyone by Easter.--Yohe
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corrado



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Location: LI

PostPosted: Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Disney moving a lot of its 2020 slate to later in the year and beyond.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/black-widow-mulan-nab-new-release-dates-jungle-cruise-delayed-a-year-1286854

Also, Top Gun moves to Christmas time, and the latest Minions movie will be released next June.

Im still surprised that the latest Trolls movie is still set for release next week. They're still billing it "in theaters and on demand". Seems strange to push it in theaters with nearly every theater closed now.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

They put a bunch of movies that were supposed to hit theaters straight to On Demand, or moved quickly there.

Won't be surprised if more titles get moved there, just to get them out to the public.

$6 for On Demand isn't that far removed from the price of a movie ticket. Hollywood gets its cut either way.

It's the concessions where the movie theaters really make their money.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed May 27, 2020 3:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Now that more states are easing restrictions and movie theaters are starting to open up, probably worth looking at planned releases and their scheduled dates.

I'll stick to those that would be the major releases, in which the studio is likely hoping for it to go big.

July 24: Mulan

Aug. 7: Sponge Bob on the Run

Aug. 14: Wonder Woman 1984

Aug. 21: Bill and Ted Face the Music

Aug. 28: New Mutants

Sept. 4: A Quiet Place II

Oct. 16: Halloween Kills

Nov. 6: Black Widow

Nov. 20: Godzilla vs. Kong

Nov. 25: No Time to Die

Dec. 18: Dune

Dec. 23: Top Gun: Maverick

I will try to get some thoughts on each film later, but it's going to be interesting to see if people are...

* Willing to head to the theaters late in the summer, when they are thinking about returning to school and perhaps unsure about going to large indoor gatherings.

And...

* Willing to head to the theaters in the winter months when expectations are that COVID-19 cases will rise.

I will say that, in looking at cases in which there were major spikes, movie theaters don't seem to be effected.

With that said, that all depends on what people believe themselves and whether or not they are willing to risk going to a movie theater.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2020 12:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If I had invested huge money in a major movie, that might be a hit, I'd wait a year. The only film that I see on that list, that is interesting, is James Bond. It's been weak all year.---Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2020 4:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm interested in Wonder Woman 2 and Black Widow. Then again, I'm an MCU fan, and liked the first Wonder Woman
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Fri May 29, 2020 3:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Top Gun might be good, The trailer looked great. I think Cruse actually flys the jets. I read that & it sounds like him.

If they do, what I think they're going to do to do with Godzilla vs King Kong...I'm going to riot like there doing in Minnesota. --Yohe
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2882
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So my box office thoughts about the films in question:

July 24: Mulan

Disney was hoping this would be the latest animated to live-action/CGI film to go big. It will be one of the first major releases since stay-at-home orders have been relaxed.

Aug. 7: Sponge Bob on the Run

I threw this one into the mix because maybe that's the kids film that gets a lot of interest when they want to see something before it's time to go back to school.

Aug. 14: Wonder Woman 1984

I'm sure DC/Warner want this one to go big. Good chance of it happening if people feel comfortable going back to theaters.

Aug. 21: Bill and Ted Face the Music

Hard to figure what this one will do. I'm not sure how much nostalgia there is for Bill and Ted, but it could surprise.

Aug. 28: New Mutants

This one has been delayed for years. It was produced before Disney bought 21st Century Fox Studios. It has no ties to the X-Men films.

Sept. 4: A Quiet Place II

The first Quiet Place film drew big business. I imagine the studio is hoping for a repeat.

Oct. 16: Halloween Kills

I believe the last Halloween film did good business, so this one could follow suit.

Nov. 6: Black Widow

It goes from leading the summer box office to leading the holiday box office. This one could go down as the biggest film of 2020 if there's enough excitement for it and positive reviews.

Nov. 20: Godzilla vs. Kong

After the last Godzilla film flopped, I imagine the studio is simply hoping the "marquee matchup" will bring in the fans.

Nov. 25: No Time to Die

The latest James Bond film and it was getting a lot of hype before the pandemic.

Dec. 18: Dune

This is supposed to be closer to the actual book, unlike the original film that left a lot of stuff out. Maybe this one could surprise.

Dec. 23: Top Gun: Maverick

Tom Cruise has had a lot of success with the Mission Impossible series. Now he gets to revisit a past film. This one was getting a lot of hype before the pandemic, too.
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