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Box Office Thread 2017
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Shades 2 got to $100M over the weekend. I was wrong on its legs. It sunk harder this weekend than Shades 1 did on its 3rd weekend. But the combo of the Valentine's Day spike and the much lower % drop on the second weekend made it easy to get to $100M.

Shades 1 had $19M left in the tank, which would take Shades 2 over $120M. But that bigger drop this weekend, along with the glut of big movies coming out over the next few weeks to eat into Shades 2's screen, makes me think it doesn't have $19M left. But I've been wrong on just about everything on this movie... so who knows. :P

* * * * *

Bat Lego is $50M back off Lego 1, and made $11M less this weekend. Its % drop was a bit worse as well. Clearly not getting to $200M. It made less on the 3rd weekend than Lego 1 made on its 4th weekend. Lego 1 had $48M left at that point (as opposed to the $74M it had left after its 3rd weekend). That $48M isn't unreasonable, perhaps shade it to $50M to be conservative. That puts it between $170M and $175M. That feels like a reasonable ceiling until seeing another week or so.

* * * * *

Wick is about $25M away from $100M. The % drops are good. But Logan is this coming weekend, then Kong. Don't think it gets there but it will be interesting if it can.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I suspect the studio leaves Shades 2 around for a while to see if it gets to $120M.

You're probably right about Lego Batman (which, BTW, is a really good film... I'll write more about in Yohe's review thread). I still think the studio will be happy with it, considering I don't think they expect Lego Movie to do as well as it did.

It will be interesting to see how Logan does. The previous Wolverine flicks have been middling at the box office, but they got middling to bad reviews, too. So far, Logan is getting more positive reviews and Rotten Tomatoes already has it Certified Fresh. That it's an R-rated flick might make one wonder if it will pull in the same audience, but then again, Deadpool didn't have that problem with an R rating.

The other question regarding Logan is how it competes for an audience against Get Out, which has been well received. As I said earlier, it will be interesting to see what legs Get Out has.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2017 3:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Logan pulled in an estimated $85M on its opening weekend.

That matches the opening weekend for the Wolverine Origins film, which was a May release. Origins finished at $179.8M and that film had weak reviews and no legs.

Still, it remains to be seen what Logan's legs will be like, but if it has any, it should have no problem reaching $175M. What it needs to do is avoid the massive drop Origins had... that one dropped all the way to $26.4M in its second weekend.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2017 3:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Meanwhile, Get Out pulled in $26.1M on its second weekend, just a 21 percent drop from its opening weekend.

$100M is a lock. If its legs keep holding up, it's got a good chance to reach $125M.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Logan's actual weekend total was $88M and it added $7.2M Monday. It's already $5M ahead of Wolverine Origins' pace. Even though Monday's box office dropped 70 percent from Sunday, it was still better than Origins.

Assuming Logan stays $5M ahead of Origins, it'll get to $185M, but not $200M.

ETA: Check that... The Numbers listed $8.6M for Tuesday's take for Logan, more than $4M more than Origins pulled its first Tuesday. If it holds up, that puts Logan at $104M, when Origins was at $95M at this point.

Assuming the $9M margin, Logan now has a chance at $190M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The one to watch are comps with Days of Future Past. DOFP us $14M up, but $12M of that is off DOFP's first Monday being Memorial Day. The other $2M was the opening Friday. If Logan can hold up for several weeks on the other days, it has a shot at $200M. DOFP went almost $34M beyond $200M, so even with the $14M on those two unique days, there's some margin.

DOFP did eventually get some summer weekdays, but Logan will get some Spring Break coming up.

Logan has some issues with a lot of competition coming up. Kong this weekend. Beauty and the Beast next. CHiPs / Life / Power Rangers the week after that. DOFP was down -64.2% the second weekend. Logan probably need to come in right at that number or better to have a shot at $200M.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sat Mar 11, 2017 12:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$20.2M estimated Friday number for Kong: Skull Island. Mojo was projecting $46M, so that prediction is looking good.

$10.3M estimate for Logan. On one hand, it won't get to the $42M weekend number Mojo projected. On the other hand, it still outdid Origins by $2M for its second Friday and was $1M ahead of Days of Future Past's second Friday. That might translate to a slightly higher second weekend than Days, which did $32.5M. Maybe Logan can get to $35M if it does enough Saturday business.

Get Out pulled in $6M. Its legs have been good. Will be interesting to see how far past $100M it goes.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

These are estimates, but it's very good for Logan:

$37,850,000 Logan (-57.2%)
$32,551,098 DOFP (-64.2%)

Shot at $200M is alive.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kong got beat up by Godzilla. Kong could have some okay legs as its reviews were okay. But Godzilla had even better reviews, didn't have strong legs, and just eeked out getting $200M. $32M down on the first weekend. Kong may not get to $150M.
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Dave Dymond



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PostPosted: Sun Mar 12, 2017 2:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just read an article that claimed that due to the $185 Million production budget for Kong, coupled with the insane amount the studio is spending on worldwide promotion, the film will need to make $500 Million to break even?!

Quote:
Despite the big opening, there is still a question as to whether this film can make a profit or even break even. With that $185 million budget and worldwide promotion costs, the film is expected to need around $500 million to get out of the red. 2014ís Godzilla barely hit that number ($529.1 million) when it opened to $93.2 million. But itís also worth noting that Godzilla was far more front-loaded throughout the weekend and had a mere 2.15 multiple, which is terrible even by blockbuster efforts. Skull Island will be aiming for closer to a 3.0 multiple and is likely to hit around $170 million to $180 million by the end of its domestic run. As is usually the case with blockbusters, foreign grosses will be key. The film got off to a $81.6 million start in sixty-five markets, with China and Japan still to come later this month.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Get Out continues to show strong legs. It pulled in $21M this weekend.

The way it's been able to keep doing such good business now gives Get Out a legitimate shot at $150M. Pretty impressive.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4274&p=.htm

Pulling this from Mojo's update, because it bears watching.

Quote:
Next weekend sees the release of Disney's Beauty and the Beast into over 4,000 theaters where it will become the first 2017 release to open over $100 million. Last year The Jungle Book opened with $103.2 million in mid-April before going on to gross over $360 million domestically. It seems safe to say Beauty and the Beast will top that film's opening as online ticket retailer Fandango.com is already reporting it is outselling Captain America: Civil War ($179.1 million opening) and is the fastest-selling family film in Fandango history, topping previous family record-holder, Finding Dory ($135m opening) as hundreds of showtimes across the country were sold out two weeks before the film even opened. Join us next Thursday when we take a look at just how high it may go.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's worth remembering that we're 26 years since the release of the animated Beauty and the Beast launched the modern animated blockbuster era. How many kids who saw that are now parents, or parents who took their kids are now grandparents. I've been low key on thinking about it since maybe it's not good, or something else that would keep it from being huge. But for some folks, this is kind of like the Star Wars of the genre. And we saw with SW7 how that got a buzz going for all those old fanboys like me, then when it delivered just went through the roof.

$500M is very possible when it's outselling Cap3, which made $408M. This thing cross over a lot of genres with the animiated tie in, the "family movie" tie in, the musical aspects, a major appeal to women, and the "date movie" tie in. This could be... really big.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dave Dymond wrote:
I just read an article that claimed that due to the $185 Million production budget for Kong, coupled with the insane amount the studio is spending on worldwide promotion, the film will need to make $500 Million to break even?!

Quote:
Despite the big opening, there is still a question as to whether this film can make a profit or even break even. With that $185 million budget and worldwide promotion costs, the film is expected to need around $500 million to get out of the red. 2014ís Godzilla barely hit that number ($529.1 million) when it opened to $93.2 million. But itís also worth noting that Godzilla was far more front-loaded throughout the weekend and had a mere 2.15 multiple, which is terrible even by blockbuster efforts. Skull Island will be aiming for closer to a 3.0 multiple and is likely to hit around $170 million to $180 million by the end of its domestic run. As is usually the case with blockbusters, foreign grosses will be key. The film got off to a $81.6 million start in sixty-five markets, with China and Japan still to come later this month.


Wild.

I would be surprised if Kong does a 3.0 multiplier.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jdw wrote:
It's worth remembering that we're 26 years since the release of the animated Beauty and the Beast launched the modern animated blockbuster era. How many kids who saw that are now parents, or parents who took their kids are now grandparents. I've been low key on thinking about it since maybe it's not good, or something else that would keep it from being huge. But for some folks, this is kind of like the Star Wars of the genre. And we saw with SW7 how that got a buzz going for all those old fanboys like me, then when it delivered just went through the roof.

$500M is very possible when it's outselling Cap3, which made $408M. This thing cross over a lot of genres with the animiated tie in, the "family movie" tie in, the musical aspects, a major appeal to women, and the "date movie" tie in. This could be... really big.


FWIW, Rotten Tomatoes has the movie at 69% Fresh with 77 reviews counted. Only 20 top critics have been counted so far.

On the other hand, RT shows that 98 percent of movie goers want to see, so it'll be interesting to see how far it goes.
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