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Box Office Thread 2017
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

WW passed $400M on Tuesday. Depending on whether it gets pulled quickly from the theaters or not, it looks like it could have another $6M+ left in the tank given how much it's still beating up Suicide Squad by. It's right around $800M world wide.

* * * * *

Spidey is still raking money in. It got ahead of SS's pace on Friday, but then SS's Labor Day weekend number on Sat-Mon put Spidey back $3.6M. Come Tuesday, Spidey knocked almost $1M off that. It will knock another $2M off on Wed-Thu, then pass it against on the weekend.

It's also knocking $1M a day off of BvS's lead. Passing SS's $325M is a total lock at this point. It's beating up SS by such a comfortable margin that you have to think it will pass BvS's $330M as well.

* * * * *

Dunkirk takes a $13.5M lead over Intersellar heading into the other movie's Thanksgiving Holiday. Not sure if it's enough of a gap to get to $200M given Interstellar has those two good stretches of box office coming up. These coming Wed-Sun numbers will be interesting to see.
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Annabelle: Creation pulled in $35M, which is a good take for a horror film. It's already surpassed The Dark Tower, which is only at $34.3M after it second weekend.

Dunkirk added $11.4M this weekend and is at $153.7M. I'm looking at The Numbers right now, so not sure how it measures up to Interstellar, but maybe Dunkirk can reach $200M.

Spidey HC added another $6M and should still have a shot at passing BvS and Suicide Squad.

Wonder Woman is in less than 1,000 theaters and still pulled in $1.4M. It looks like it will have enough left in the tank to get to $405M, possibly $407M, but $410M may not be within its grasp. Still, a very impressive showing.

Nut Job 2 bombed big time this weekend -- just $8.9M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dunkirk lost $7.2M to Interstellar on Wed-Sat as Interstellar got its Thanksgiving Week bump. It picked up almost $400K on Sun, which is a shade under what it won last Sunday by, though about the same % up (114% up last Sun and 113% up this Sunday.

It's $6.7M up right now. It's going to pick up ground in the coming couple of weeks, and its Labor Day number will give it another bump. But there's that decent Christmas-New Years run that Interstellar had late. It needs to beat it up something good on the coming weekdays to have a shot at $200M. I can't even figure out a % rate at this point because factoring in that Christmas run is complicated this far out.

I don't know if Dunkirk can bank enough before than to have a run at $200M. I'm thinking finishing ahead of Interstellar right now would be the goal. After Labor Day I might be able to get some pace numbers... but... Interstellar's box office is tough to comp when you're released in July.

Mojo also added the last Star Trek and MI5 to a comp chart:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=basic&id=dunkirksd.htm

MI5 got to $195M, so Dunkirk needs to get ahead of it. Right now it's down $4M in the box office, and slowly picking up. Dunkirk has an added benefit of an extra week before Labor Day. That does mean it's going to get beat up in two weeks by MI5's number, but then comeback and beat it up after... and have an extra week of Summer Weekdays Mon-Thu leading into it that go up against MI5's post Labor Day. So...
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So I guess now is as good a time as any to look at the winners and the losers of the summer box office season.

WINNERS

Wonder Woman: It's set the bar for the DC Cinematic Universe going forward, with a $400M+ take and still doing good business.

Guardians of the Galaxy 2: Finished at $388M -- though it didn't have the legs of the first film, it still had a strong showing.

Spiderman, Homecoming: It had conservative estimates at first, but is up to $306M and has revitalized interested in the character.

Dunkirk: Even if it doesn't reach $200M, it's still doing good domestic business that the studio should be quite pleased.

Baby Driver: A $34M budget and a $100M domestic take. Can't be disappointed with that.

Girls Trip: It's going to reach $100M and its budget is $19M, making it another inexpensive film that drew big.

LOSERS

King Arthur: Just a $39M domestic take. I doubt any sequels will be approved.

Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: Supposedly it's doing fine in Europe, but a $38M domestic take thus far and a $177.7M budget -- yeah, that's not good.

Baywatch: Had they kept the budget lower, the $58M domestic take wouldn't have been bad. But it's a $69M budget, so...

The Mummy: $80M domestic take, $125M budget. And they want this to launch a cinematic universe.

Transformers, The Last Knight: Michael Bay's work with the franchise goes out with a whimper at a $129M domestic take.

Nut Job 2: $8.3M right out of the gate is not a good sign.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 8:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Add Dark Tower as another box office loser. It's only at $42M with a budget of $60M.
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Ken Viewer



Joined: 04 Aug 2006
Posts: 319

PostPosted: Sun Aug 27, 2017 6:35 pm    Post subject: MOVIEPASS; One 1st Run Film Daily for $10 a Month Reply with quote

I gave up my online subscription to the Los Angeles Times because they instituted overlay ads on top of every news article that outsmarted AdBlocker. But I hope they've been covering MoviePass -- a ticket subscription-service that claims it allows you one free movie in a theater, per-day, for $10 per-month.

They purportedly pay the major chains full-price per-ticket, and the chains include AMC, Edwards and others which they had signed up when they charged subscribers much more per-month. IMAX, 3-D and other premium formats are excluded from the deal. AMC is howling about the increase in business -- which they say they do not want despite the added revenues and extra concession sales.

I checked the theaters in Manhattan that are listed as taking MoviePass and out of the some-odd 36,000 screens accepting the service in the U.S., there are some fine ones listed but neither of the most-convenient multiplexes for me are part of the deal. Other AMC theaters downtown are listed as accepting MoviePass, even though, in theory, if people could find one digital movie per-day to see for 365 days, the cost to subscribers would be about 35 cents a showing.

Anyway, if you haven't already checked and are interested (and I hope questioning), go to www.MoviePass.com and enter your zip code to see the list of theater locations assertedly accepting the pass. I don't believe the convenient local theaters here in Manhattan show that many different movies in the course of a year.

The New York Times reported this weekend that AMC stated "... MoviePassís approach to pricing could damage the movie industry long-term because it 'will not provide sufficient revenue to operate quality theaters nor will it produce enough income to provide film makers with sufficient incentive to make great new movies.'" Huh? The theaters are alleged to get full retail price per-ticket.

But both AMC execs, and I, don't understand how MoviePass will ever make any money according to the current formula. MoviePass apparently used to charge some $50 per-month for a subscription.

The company declined to explain how it makes money by selling memberships at the lower rate. I'd ask a business expert like Donald Duck if he would take my telephone call whether if he owned AMC, for instance, would he extend credit to MoviePass.

But I would have given them the $10 for a month's subscription if I could verify that theaters convenient to me would accept their pass. Even if the theaters let me in for free, if I have to spend $30 round-trip on a taxi ride (the subways no longer run with any regularity in Manhattan and the buses take an hour to go ten blocks), it's no deal.

Besides, I tend to bring food into a theater with me and if the subways worked, the rats would take my food before I could get on the train to get to a theater. (In rat-MMA, biting is permitted.)

Ken
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 1:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fucking rats man!--Yohe
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Ken Viewer



Joined: 04 Aug 2006
Posts: 319

PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 7:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

From ABC-TV network news:

The rat must have smelled whatever food this guy had partially eaten and wanted whatever crumbs that were stashed in the fellow's coat:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwIS9Yf2j0U

Ken

(Board Administrator: please delete this post if you feel it doesn't belong on TOA.)
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Comic Book Adaptations
#5 $409,013,994 Iron Man 3
#6 $408,084,349 Captain America 2
#7 $406,658,251 Wonder Woman
#8 $403,706,375 Spider-Man

WW will go into Labor Day Weekend right around $407M. It should end up passing Cap 2. Iron Man 3... don't know. It's digital release on Amazon Video and iTunes was yesterday, and it's DVD and Blu-ray releases are 9/19/17.

It might get there. It needs to cut a good deal of the of the $2M gap on Fri-Mon. It did $1.68M this past weekend as it expanded it's theaters quite a but: 803 --> 2,210. Not clear how many it will hold over this weekend.

Would be pretty amazing if it ends up in the Top 5.

* * * * *

I think Dunkirk will end up short of Interstellar's number. It's ahead now, but is starting to bleed.

Spidey will finish somewhere over $325M but if it gets to $330M it won't go far beyond that.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A good weekend for Dunkirk pulling in $5.6M. That pushes its lead over Interstellar back up to $8M for the first time since its 5th Friday.

My Interstellar vs Dunkirk chart was a little messed up after the 3rd week for Interstellar. Correcting that and with this weekend, I'm more hopeful of Dunkirk finishing ahead of Interstellar. Still, Interstellar has $9.2M that it banks in the coming two weeks as it wrapped it's salad days over the Christmas to New Years period. It only had another $3.5M in the tank after that. A big chunk of Dunkirk's $8M lead is going to get wiped out over the next two weeks... frankly, staring on Tue as Interstellar banked $2M in the coming Tue-Fri heading into Christmas. Dunkirk's summer weekdays are over, so it's going to dip.

It will be an interesting race. I think Dunkirk has the $8M left in the tank it will need to finish ahead, but it's going to be tight.

* * * * *

A great $2.5M four day for WW this late in its release leaves it just over $500K to get to $410. It passed Iron Man 3 to hit the Top 5 of comic book adaptations. It will only hold a top 5 spot until next May/June when Avengers 3 knocks it down. But this has been an amazing run.

* * * * *

$4.7M for Spidey as it cut half the distance to $330M. Pretty sure it's going to get there. SS has just under $4M left in the tank. Kinda think it's a lock that Spidey has more than $1M left in the tank that SS had at this point.

* * * * *

This was a really bad summer at the box office, and overall its been a bad year. 6 out of 8 months are down compared to last year, and that includes all of May-Aug.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's the all-time rankings for superhero films at the box office.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=superhero.htm

I'm guessing DC/Warner will leave Wonder Woman in the theaters for at least a couple more weeks to see how close it can get to $415M.

The take for the first Avengers film is no doubt why a few involved with Justice League aren't expecting that film to hit it big. I don't think anything would have gotten Justice League to $600M -- true, better writing and directing would have helped Batman v Superman, but it's really the difference between a $300M film and a film that challenges for $450M, not $600M.

Plus Justice League will eventually run into Star Wars VIII, so no matter the buzz for JL, it's not going to reach Avengers level.

JL might, though, threaten for $400M if it does generate good buzz and Thor 3 doesn't. The first two Thor films didn't reach $200M -- though Thor 3 might take some of JL's audience, it might not take enough if audiences aren't as thrilled with it.

For the time being, though, I'll bet on JL being a $300M film and Thor 3 in the $150M range, though either film (or both) could be boosted with good buzz.

Again, though. we know Star Wars VIII is going to blow every 2017 film away.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thursday previews for It pulled in $13.5M.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4322&p=.htm

Mojo's projection of an $85M opening for It seems likely now. A good showing for It would certainly inject some life into this year's box office, which hasn't been strong overall despite a few big hits.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 2:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think IT's going to be big. The trailer was real good & there is nothing else to see.--Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You were right - it's really big.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

$117M opening weekend for It. Second largest opening for an R-rated film behind Deadpool, largest opening for any horror film.

"It" will best Get Out, which is the highest grossing horror film this year, and if it has any legs, will surpass The Exorcist for the highest grossing horror film of all time. Given how well Deadpool did over time, I'd say "It" should easily be a $300 film.

Speaking of Exorcist, that was truly a phenom in its time -- a 1973 release that drew $232.9M.
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