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Box Office Thread 2017
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2848
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 1:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
Mojo's estimates are that Last Jedi will draw $220M for its opening weekend.

Comparing each day's box office to Force Awakens (LJ on left, FA on right, LJ is estimates at this point).

$119.1M vs $104.7M
$68.2M vs $63.9M
$60.5M vs $51.2M


Here are the actuals, Force Awakens first, then Last Jedi (last post I wrote, it was actually FA first, then LJ, not the other way around as I had written).

Friday: $119.1M vs. $104.6M
Saturday: $68.2M vs. $64M (actually $63.99M, but I rounded up)
Sunday: $60.5M vs. $51.3M

The estimate Mojo had were pretty much spot on.

If you round up Force Awakens' opening weekend, it comes out to $248M, so with $220M opening for Last Jedi, it's $28M behind FA's pace.

The Numbers then came in with the Monday estimate of $21.6M for Last Jedi -- that's down a fair amount from Force Awakens ($40.1M), but an important note is that more schools were open Monday than they were in Force Awakens came out, so it's not really the best comparison. Numbers has more here:

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/227410830-Last-Jedi-Pulls-in-21-6-million-on-Monday-for-241-6-million-Four-Day-Total

What will really tell the tale about Last Jedi is what it pulls in its second weekend, plus its Christmas haul and the haul throughout next week when school isn't in session most places. That's when Last Jedi has the chance to gain some ground and give itself a shot at $900M.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2017 8:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks at The Numbers article, I would be more hopeful if they didn't use the word "hold". To get to $800M, SW8 needs more than "holds". They need "spikes". As in they need to get up into the $30M+ range for some of the rest of the week. I doubt it's doing $149M and $90M the next two weekends. It's $47M back of SW7, and can bleed $136M to get above $800M. But even if it averaged $30M a day Tue-Thu, that's dropping another $12M to SW7 heading into that monster weekend and then SW7 averaging $28M next Mon-Thu.

Without a very quick spike, $800M is a problem. Then the key comp in the $200M+ Opening Chart is going to be JW:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=openingweekendshowdown.htm

The lead is uncomfortably narrow relative to a movie that made $652M. Not saying $700M is at risk. But SW7 needs to get a jump on it's lead over JW to make $700 a safe number.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$700M is in some doubt. It's fallen behind JW, but will probably jump back ahead by the end of Wed:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=openingweekendshowdown.htm

It kind of needs to jump considerably ahead of it by the end of 1/1 to get to $700M. JW is "only" a $650M movie, and it has a lot of summer weekdays ahead of it while SW8 has kids getting back to school starting next week.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$27M for Last Jedi Tuesday and $21M more on Wednesday.

It's still behind Force Awakens' tally but it's gaining ground on Jurassic World and Avengers. I'd find it hard to believe that it's going to fall behind those two with New Year's weekend coming.

As long as it stays close to Force Awakens, it's going to improve its chances of getting to $700M. Obviously, it's not going to reach the heights Force Awakens reached, but it's still in good position to finish well ahead of Jurassic World, as long as it keeps pulling in the audience in the coming days.

If it can at least maintain the Force Awakens money next week (keeping in mind that more kids will be out of school next week as opposed to when Force Awakens hit theaters), it's got a shot.
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Bob Morris



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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting estimates for Last Jedi for New Year's Day weekend

Fri: $19M
Sat: $19.9M
Sun: $13.6M
Mon: $15.7M

It was well above Jurassic World on Friday, dipped below it Saturday and Sunday, then New Year's Day came along and it's up way above it -- even well above Force Awakens. Certainly that's the power of a holiday on Monday.

The question is how it fares the rest of the week when school won't be in session for everyone. It definitely needs to do business similar to JW to beat it out... JW did $81M in its third week and Last Jedi is estimated at around $66M, so it needs at least $15M Tue-Thur to have a shot at topping JW.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Monday was New Year Day....everything is over but going shopping or the movies.

Sunday was NY eve. They shut the theaters down early & let the workers go home. Not a good movie day...at least late.--Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Based on Rogue 1, it might have $100M left in the tank... maybe a bit more, maybe a bit less. $700M looks out. I do think they would badly like to see it get above JW for #4 domestic.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lost in the talk about Last Jedi is the performance of Jumanji.

Christmas weekend (Dec. 22-25): $55.3M
New Year's weekend (Dec. 29-Jan. 1): $66.2M

Amazing that Jumanji did better business in its second weekend compared to its first.

It's at $185M domestic so far and $200M is a lock. Though the third weekend very likely won't outperform its second, it's still showing strong legs and, if it can at least do half of its first weekend take, would be in position to reach $250M.

I don't know if it has enough to reach $300M, but that another film released around the same time as Last Jedi has a realistic shot at $250M is pretty impressive.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Last Jedi adds $7.8M on Tuesday, which is roughly in line with what Force Awakens and Jurassic World earned.

Jumanji, though, continues to be the big story. It outdrew Last Jedi again with $10.2M. It's going to be interesting to see how long Jumanji can keep its current pace.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jumanji has a decent shot at being a $300M movie. No competition at the box office over the next couple of weeks. It looks like it was hurt on it's opening weekend by the close release to SW8. But decent reviews, decent word of mouth, likable cast... it could have the legs to get to $300M. Pretty much a lock to finish ahead of DM3 as the #8 movie this year. That it will destroy Justice League and Furious 8 is pretty amazing.

Coco is slowing down. Looks like it will limp to get to $200M.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So let's look at what would be the biggest box office successes, disappointments and bombs this year.

The top 10 box office successes:

1. Last Jedi: Won't catch Force Awakens but hard to be disappointed by what will be a $600M domestic take.
2. Beauty and the Beast: Big followup on the live action Jungle Book with a $500M take and the studio is now preparing for a live action Lion King.
3. Wonder Woman: A $400M take and proof that a female director and lead can sell a franchise.
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: Fell shy of $400M and kept the run of success for the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
5. Spider-Man: Homecoming: Pulled in more than $300M and got everyone interested in Spidey's first solo film that's integrated into the MCU.
6. It: Biggest September debut draw ever, biggest draw for a horror film and there's the second part to come.
7. Thor: Ragnarok: The most successful Thor film and a prelude to Infinity War.
8. Logan: Continued to show there's a market for R-rated superhero films and a fitting way to end Hugh Jackman's run as Wolverine.
9. Jumanji: A surprise December hit, especially when it was going up against Last Jedi.
10. Get Out: $175M domestic take on a $4.5M budget and the third-highest domestic grossing horror film ever.

Your five biggest box office disappointments:

1. Justice League: Though $200M domestic wouldn't be considered a bad thing, the studio certainly expected at least $300M for the big DC team-up.
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales: The Pirates franchise is losing steam and with $172M domestic on a $247M budget, I'd be surprised if they make another film.
3. War for the Planet of the Apes: Critics loved it but it failed to generate an audience, falling short of $150M domestic.
4. Transformers: The Last Knight: This franchise is clearly suffering from burnout with just a $130M domestic take and only saved by its popularity in China.
5. Blade Runner 2049: Like the film it preceded, those who watched it loved it but it couldn't catch on to wider appeal.

Your five biggest box office bombs:

1. The Mummy: Intended to launch a new cinematic universe and instead killed the whole thing.
2. The Great Wall: $150M budget, $45M domestic take. I can't even recall any buzz around this film up to its release.
3. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: Supposed to be more popular in Europe, but a $41M domestic take on a $177M budget is never a good sign.
4. Ghost in the Shell: An attempt to turn a popular animated film into live action but it failed to catch on, with a $40M take against a $110M budget.
5. King Arthur: Legend of the Sword: A $175M budget and a $39M domestic take. If the intent was to launch a series, it failed.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wolf Warrior #2 cost 30 mil---made 409 mil.

Planet of the Apes cost 150 mil...made 490 mil.---Why stop there?

The Mummy cost 125 mil...made 409 mil.-----Someone will see that & want more.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales made 794 mil...cost 242 mil---there will be more if Johnny needs $.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You look at the 2017 world wide list of films & I wonder who the true movie stars are anymore. I would say Tom Cruse might be #1. I don't think you can call any actor in a Marvel or any other superhero movie as being the force that is the boxoffice draw. Maybe Wonder Woman, but what else has she done that has made super star money. Marvel, Bond, & DC are franchises. To say that the actor is the star, is like saying a WWE wrestler is a box office star. Any of them could be replaced.

Jackie Chan is a star.

The world has tons of celebrates but doesn't have many stars. Maybe because young people don't know the difference.

Today, it seems you define a star by how many directors or insiders want to work with them.

Maybe true movie stars only help low budget films?---Yohe
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jumanji added another $36M this past weekend. It's in better position to hit $300M now.

Last Jedi went down to $23.5M. Though it's going to reach $600M without a problem, it's likely to fall short of Jurassic World now, given the declining interest.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jumanji pulled in $28M this weekend. That's not including MLK Day -- it's expected to draw $35M for the four-day weekend.

So Jumanji will be a $300M film, which is a big accomplishment considering it went up against Last Jedi.

Meanwhile, Last Jedi will be passing the $600M mark by the coming weekend.
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