The OtherArena

[Steve Yohe]

Has Matthew McConaughey goofy car & Hamburger commercials hurt his movie box office?---Yohe

[jdw]

He never was box office. Interstellar was Nolan.

[Bob Morris]

John brought it up in Yohe's review thread, but I'll pull it over here.

Venom set an October opening weekend record with $80.2M. With the reviews not being good overall, it remains to be seen if it has any legs.

I'm not sold that Venom will be a $300M film -- and it definitely needs legs to get to that mark. $200M appears likely, though.

A Star Is Born also had a good opening: $42.9M. That one has received more positive reviews and I've heard from several people that they liked this one.

I'm wondering if A Star Is Born might be one of those surprise films that does better than expected. $100M appears to be within its reach. If it has any legs, it could be in line for $150M, which would certainly be more than the studio would have expected.

The Nun, a September release, has done pretty well for itself with $113M so far on a $22M budget.

Crazy Rich Asians, which came out in August, has reached $169M and, if it sticks around in theaters long enough, could get to $175M.

If you are looking for domestic bombs, you look no further than the new Predator film: $50M after four weeks. Though its budget is $88M, I'm sure the studio hoped for $100M domestic and it has no chance of getting there.

[Bob Morris]

Mojo has a comp up for Venom.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=venomlogan.htm

Logan pulled in $88M its opening weekend and finished at $226M. So $225M would be the bar that Venom is trying to reach.

It's $7M behind Logan's pace, though, but it appears to be a safe bet for $200M.

[Bob Morris]

A Star Is Born outdrew Venom on Monday this week:

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

Venom should still finish above $200M, but A Star Is Born has better legs so far. It dropped just 33 percent from its second weekend (from $42M to $28M).

$100M is a lock for A Star Is Born and $150M is within its sights. It will be interesting to see how high it will get.

[Bob Morris]

$77.5M estimated opening weekend for Halloween.

How long it holds up at the box office remains to be seen, but this could be the second film opening in October that could reach $200M.

And it's a low budget film, too. ($10M estimated budget)

[Steve Yohe]

The trailer for Halloween introduced a new concept for a slasher movie & it looked interesting. I'll probably go see it during the week. It she kicks the shit out of the masked guy, it could be cool. ---Yohe

[Bob Morris]

Mojo is now doing a comp with Logan vs. Venom vs. Halloween.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=venomlogan.htm

Venom pulled in about the same as Logan did in its fourth weekend, and slightly outdrew it in the third weekend, after lagging behind it its first two weekends.

Halloween was behind Logan in the first two weekends.

Logan had $25M left in the tank after its fourth weekend. Venom only needs $13M to get there, so $200M is a lock.

Halloween has $126M through two weekends. Logan had $153M with $73M left at that point. $73M puts Halloween at just below $200M.

On the other hand, Halloween's budget is just $10M, so getting close to $200M is a huge deal there.

[Bob Morris]

A few notes about the recent box office:

* The most successful film for the Nov.-Dec. schedule, in terms of box office gross, thus far is The Grinch at $239.4M. Good domestic take for a film on a $75M budget.

* Ralph Breaks the Internet had been winning the weekend box office for several weekends and its $154M domestic take looks good. But then there's the budget...

$175M.

Yikes!

And worldwide take isn't helping it that much -- it's at $285M global take.

* The latest Fantastic Beasts hasn't exactly been a domestic success with $151M. With that said, the worldwide take has saved it with $596.2M global box office.

* Creed II has been a steady performer. It's passed $100M domestic take. The first film pulled in $109M and the second is in just its fourth week.

[Bob Morris]

* Aquaman is at $122.6M as of Wednesday. It got a boost on Christmas (Tuesday) but it's still well behind Wonder Woman's take of $138.6M.

While Aquaman might gain some ground during the New Year's Day weekend, I can't see it getting anywhere near Wonder Woman's total take.

I could see Aquaman surpassing Justice League, which finished at $229M. Whether it can get to $300M remains to be seen.

FWIW, Mojo is projecting $50M for Aquaman for this Friday through Sunday -- that's just a 26 percent drop, though. I think Mojo might be overestimating its chances, but we'll see.

* Bumblebee is at $40.5M, which I imagine is disappointing for the studio, given that the film got good reviews. I suspect people just haven't washed the taste of Bay's Transformers films out of their mouths.

Who knows... maybe it will find its legs if enough people like it.

* Spiderman: Into the Spider-Verse is up to $79.6M. A solid domestic take thus far. This one might get to $150M, which isn't bad for a film with a $90M budget.

* Mary Poppins Returns is at $60.8M, a solid number as well.

[jdw]

Aquaman is doing far better business than I expected. $300M is a lock now. Kids are back at school, so the weekday numbers are going to fall. Wonder Woman beat it up pretty good over the 3rd weekend, so $400M is out of the question... never really was on the table. I think that weekend number means $350M is out, so it's a matter of where between $300M and $350M it falls.

Monster movie internationally.

Who would have thought Supeman and Batman are the poor draws, while WW and AM do the big business. To me it's a massive proof that Snyder was fucked up beyond belief in his vision of the DC Murderverse.

John

[Bob Morris]

Aquaman passed Suicide Squad in domestic take through its fourth weekend and is quickly gaining on Batman v Superman.

BvS finished with $330M, while Squad took in $325M, but the latter film had better legs in its final weeks.

Aquaman is on its way to beating both -- how far is the question. But it should make it $335M, perhaps $340M.

It's possible the studio leaves it in for a while to see if it can reach $350M, but that's probably its ceiling. Still, it's a good sign for Warner/DC and probably an indication they need to focus less on a shared universe and more on just rolling out individual films that have appeal.