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Box Office Thread 2019
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$350M opening weekend, $1.2B worldwide opening.

Of secondary note, as Bob was pointing out earlier, Cap Marvel has held amazingly well the last in April:

$12,431,803 Apr 57
$8,611,527 Apr 1214
$9,105,610 Apr 1921
$8,051,000 Apr 2628

It passed Hunger Games 1 and Wonder Woman over the weekend. Hunger Games 2 got to $424M, while Cap Marvel is at $413M. It's sure feels like it has has $11M more in the tank - it's still in 2,435 theaters and was #2 this weekend. That means it's going to keep a decent number of theaters for a little while longer.

The MCU has had the following non-Avengers $400M movies (counting Civil War as being Avengers 2.5 rather than Cap3):

$700,059,566 Black Panther
$413,580,047+ Cap Marvel
$409,013,994 Iron Man 3

Two over those movies are for fresh tentpole characters of the *next* phase of the MCU rather than the current Infinity Cycle.

I would say the MCU is not dead yet. Mu guess remains that they will be happy with some smaller movies at the level like Doctor Strange and Ant-Man and the Wasp that they make for less money than these monster efforts, while using things like Black Panther, Spidey and GotG3 as tentpoles, working on figuring out what they want to do with Cap Marvel (which is more difficult than most), and figure out what they want to do with the Black Widow Miniverse if there's more than one "prequel" (which should draw even more than Cap Marvel *if* they make a quality movie).

That's not even touching on the Marvel Studios folks turning their attention to find someone who loves the Fantastic Four characters and gives those characters the same level of love they have in Spidey and Black Panther and GotG and countless other movies. I think there's zero doubt that there are some folks starting to spitball that group, knowing that if they nail it the MCU will have another tentpole group for the next Cycle. And they realize they don't have to rush it - GotG was the *10th* movie in the Infinity Cycle, yet played both a key role in the Cycle, a key role in making tons of money, and a key role in showing that the MCU could make money off non-Avengers Main Eventer Character movies.

Given Steve's love of the Fantastic 4, I'm really hoping that Marvel pulls off the reboot of them in the next 6 or so years.

And wait... that's not even talking about the X-Men. The Fox series effectively ends with Dark Phoenix. New Mutants is scheduled for later this year, but it's such a trainwreck that the latest round of reshoots haven't even happened... and Disney may just right it off from theaters and instead just stream it on Disney+ down road.

It's unlikely that Marvel is in a rush to reboot the X-Men series super fast, and instead will likely take their time to figure out whether they will be part of the MCU or in their own separate universe (which would fit of Deadpool also remains separate in that universe).

Anyway... they have a load of shit they can do.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Endgame has already topped Captain Marvel worldwide. That's just amazing.

I don't know if Endgame has enough to get $1B domestic, but I underestimated its opening weekend, so I'm not going to bet against Endgame reaching the $1B domestic mark.

There's no real competition coming along for some time, so it should at least take the next two weekends.

I mean... just a 50 percent drop off to its second weekend would put it $175M, and a 60 percent drop off would be $140M. Even at a 60 percent drop off, that's $500M when you take into account the Monday through Thursday draw.

Let's say it draws $150M its second weekend and $75M its third. Throw in weekday takes and that's likely $600M right there.

It will be tough to get to $1B... but as I said earlier, I won't bet against it now.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2019 7:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A billion will never be the same again.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2019 9:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Monday numbers:

Avengers Endgame: $36.8M
The Force Awakens: $40.1M

On one hand, Force Awakens had a better first Monday. On the other hand, that was when Christmas vacation was starting for many people.

Meanwhile, Avengers Endgame pulls in just $3.3M less on its first Monday when school is still in session.

If Endgame keeps enough ground on the weekdays while blowing past Force Awakens on the weekends, that's going to give it a real chance at $1B domestic -- which means $2B worldwide and then you're talking $2.5B worldwide.

And then... you're talking about a film that could challenge Avatar for the highest grossing film worldwide.

Just... wow.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun May 05, 2019 9:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

$145M estimated second weekend for Avengers: Endgame.

Of course, that estimate is coming in early on Sunday, so it's possible actual numbers will come in a bit higher.

Force Awakens -- which had its second weekend on Christmas -- drew $149M, so Endgame isn't that far from the mark.

It's still up in the air whether Endgame will have enough to push for $1B domestic. I suspect that will come down to how well it does leading up to Memorial Day, at which point school is out for more people and the potential for more viewers -- whether first-time or repeat -- will come into play.

Again, there aren't a lot of big releases in the coming weeks which appear to be a threat to win the weekend box office crown, at least not until Aladdin or Godzilla comes along.

But Endgame is the fastest to get to $500M domestic and is about to be the fastest to $600M domestic.

It's also doing very well overseas and is about to hit $2.1B worldwide -- meaning Avatar's worldwide record is very much in play.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 2:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Actuals came in: $147.3M domestic for the second weekend of Avengers: Endgame.

It's up to $621M domestic and $900M is a lock at this point.

It's also up to $2.193B worldwide -- meaning it's only a matter of time before it passes Avatar as the largest grossing film worldwide.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 6:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So I guess were going to now get a bunch of movies that have unhappy endings to set up the next in a series. It's like watching the end of a Bill Watts TV show.--Yohe
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 8:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nothing new. The Dark Knight and Empire Strikes Back were unhappy endings.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Tue May 07, 2019 12:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not the same. When it starts happening, I'll point in out to you. It will be films without endings for no reason but to make people return for another. Like with serials in the 1940's & 50's. Any movie that makes 2 billion will create copies.--Yohe
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Tue May 07, 2019 12:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not the same. When it starts happening, I'll point in out to you. It will be films without endings for no reason but to make people return for another. Like with serials in the 1940's & 50's. Any movie that makes 2 billion will create copies.--Yohe
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue May 07, 2019 10:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's more than just one film that led to Endgame.

They were dropping in bits and pieces of elements that set up Infinity War and, consequently, Endgame. They had two previous Avengers films that teased Thanos, plus we saw him in the first Guardians film.

Endgame is really about the culmination of the entire MCU and 20-plus films.

Dark Knight and Empire Strikes Back were trilogies, which aren't going away any time soon (and both films in question drew big box office for their time periods).

You can certainly point to, say, the theatrical version of It as one intended to be two parts (and the first part drew a lot of money).

But Endgame didn't just draw because of Infinity War. It drew because of 20-plus films already released.

Maybe the next Star Wars film rivals Endgame. On one hand, it ends a new trilogy, but on the other hand, Force Awakens had the nostalgia effect that Last Jedi didn't have.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2019 7:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord of the Ring had two movies without finishes that led to the third.

Potter 7 was split into two parts, with the first not having the real finish. That started the trend of "finals" being split into two parts, which we saw with both the finales of Twilight and Hunger Games... all three of those series being based on books where the final book was split into two movies.

One could say Potter 6 didn't have a finish as it led into Potter 7.

This isn't new. I think a lot of us weren't surprised when Avengers 3 was broken into 2 movies.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 2:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Endgame broke $650M on Wednesday, beating out Force Awakens by one day in the fastest to that mark.

It's lost quite a bit of ground to Force Awakens this past week, but it is staying ahead of Infinity War and the first Avengers film.

Infinity War had $200M left in the tank at this point, so now $900M isn't quite the lock I thought it might be.

I still think Endgame has a shot at catching Force Awakens for highest domestic gross -- it could make up some more ground on weekends and might see an uptick in business during Memorial Day weekend.

With that said, Endgame is up to $2.3B worldwide, so yes, it's well on its way to being the highest grossing film worldwide, regardless of where it finishes domestically.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 8:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Force Awakens' Thursday (i.e. today for Endgame) was January 1. That's going to be the last weekday that FA kicks the living shit out of Endgame.

FA pulled in $90M in the coming weekend, with just a -39.5% drop. Infinity War "only" dropped -45.9% in its third weekend. My guess is that Endgame will be in the -45% to -50% range for a this coming weekend, rather than going over -50%. That's still going to mean FA gains even more on Endgame over the weekend.

In the coming week, FA was in the $8.0M to $5.9M range Mon-Fri. Endgame could be below those as well.

FA was $36M above $900M, so Endgame has some margin to play with if it falls behind over the weekend... but not a ton. The questions are:

* how far behind is Endgame come Sunday, since it *will* be behind
* how quickly, if at all, does it reference the daily bleeding during next week or next weekend

I think it has far more than the $200M left in the tank that Infinity War did. This is a feel good movie, and once the crowds thin out (which will happen this weekend) you'll see more of the "I need to see this again" crowd than was seen for IW.

Does it have more than $250M? Don't know. Worth keeping an eye on how far it stays ahead of IW each day and on the weekends, and their respective % drops.
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 11:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wonder if the 356 million budget for Endgame was the largest of all time?
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