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Summer Box Office Update: Weekend of July 28-30
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:12 am    Post subject: Summer Box Office Update: Weekend of July 28-30 Reply with quote

Via BoxOfficeMojo.com

Although Miami Vice ended the reign of Pirates 2 as the top weekend movie, the $25,723,815 Vice pulled in is a pretty underwhelming number. Its budget was $135 million and it will be hard pressed to pass that mark given its opening.

Pirates 2, on the other hand, may not have been the top movie this weekend, but the $20,606,578 it pulled in has pushed it past the $350 million mark. It currently stands at $358,485,761 and still has a shot at $400 million if it doesn't drop off too much at the box office in the coming weeks.

Regardless, Pirates 2 is your top summer blockbuster, hands down.

Cars is going to end up second behind Pirates, as it surpassed X-Men III this past weekend. The total gross through this past weekend for both:

Cars: $234,802,642
X3: $233,369,859

Cars didn't open to the huge weekend X3 had, but Cars had the legs X3 didn't. I'm sure Pixar is very happy with how Cars has done at the box office.

On other notes:

* Superman Returns is going to be considered a box office disappointment. It's up to $185,794,683 as of this past weekend and it may not even reach $200 million. Doesn't bode well for the future of the franchise.

* The Ant Bully and My Super Ex-Girlfriend will go down as your latest box office bombs. Ant Bully didn't even break $10 million for its opening weekend ($8,432,465) and Ex-Girlfriend has pulled in all of $16,751,286 through its second weekend.

On the subject of Ant Bully, I suspect people got their computer animation fix from Cars, Over the Hedge and Ice Age 2 (all which have done well at the box office). Even Monster House has done better than Ant Bully.

If people have gotten their fill of computer animated movies, that doesn't bode well for The Barnyard, which is to premiere this weekend.

As for other weekend movies, I suspect Talladega Nights will draw fairly good opening numbers given Will Ferrell's fanbase, but I don't think it will do big numbers. No summer film yet to be released is going to catch Pirates, Cars, X3 or even Da Vinci Code

* I did want to address something John brought up on the old forum as it pertains to the numbers Pirates 3 might draw.

I don't think Pirates 3 is going to catch Star Wars' numbers. It will have to contend with Shrek 3, and if the first two Shrek movies are any indication, Shrek 3 could do big box office numbers and siphon away some of the money Pirates 3 could generate. Spidey 3 will have been in theaters for a few weeks prior to Pirates 3 debuting, but if Spidey 3 has legs, it could also cut into Pirates 3's numbers.

I will say I don't think X3's Memorial Day weekend record will be broken next year, given that three movies with large fanbases (Shrek 3, Pirates 3, Spidey 3) will all be vying for viewers during the 2007 Memorial Day weekend. They may combine to beat X3's number, but I don't think any of three will beat it individually.

But X3 got to where it was at simply because the Memorial Day competition wasn't that strong.

Pirates 2 certainly had its fanbase that was going to make it big at the box office, but it would have been interesting to see how it would have fared against stronger competition. Superman Returns was only going to challenge it if it had received strong reviews from critics and the fans who first went to see it (as in, the levels the Spidey and Shrek franchises reached), and when it didn't, the path was pretty clear for Pirates 2 to become a monster hit.

But who can say for sure. Shrek 3, Spidey 3 and Pirates 3 all have excellent chances at $300 million each, a good possibility of $400 million each, and one of them just might make it to $500 million.

Either way, with three franchises with large fanbases (and that's not including the next Harry Potter movie, set to debut in July 2007), I expect the summer of 2007 will be a hot one for the movie industry.
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corrado



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PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also of note, John Tucker must die did better than expected. Making 14 mil last weekend. it'll probably decline next week.

The Ant Bully adds to the dismal summer WB has. With Superman, and Lady in the Water also tanking

As for this month of releases, yeah Talledga Nights will be #1 next week. And perhaps World Trade Center will also do well. But the dark horse will be Snakes on a Plane. It'll have a big opening week in 2 weeks, but will decline sharply soon after.

AS for the Barnyard, yeah it'll tank. It seems for the most part, unless your company is Pixar or Dreamworks, most CGI crap flops. That's something to keep in mind, as there's at least 3 more CGI movies out in the months to come.

And yes next summer will be very hot at the box-office. 4 big franchises (6 if you count the latest Pixar offering and the sequel to Fantastic Four) Plus the Simpsons Movie (which got a great reaction when animatics of it were shown at Comic-con and you get a record-breaking summer perhaps.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2006 12:18 am    Post subject: Re: Summer Box Office Update: Weekend of July 28-30 Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
Pirates 2, on the other hand, may not have been the top movie this weekend, but the $20,606,578 it pulled in has pushed it past the $350 million mark. It currently stands at $358,485,761 and still has a shot at $400 million if it doesn't drop off too much at the box office in the coming weeks.


Pirates has been a lock for $400M for a couple of weeks. The only thing the $20M last week (and it's weekday toll this week) tell us is whether it would stay ahead of Shrek2's pace. And the answer there was "probably not"... which was pretty amazing, since the answer should have been a strong "No!".

I think this weekend's box office will kill of its chance at catching Shrek2. Friday's number was behind Shrek2's on this weekend of release, so Shek2 is still realing it in... just far more slowly than I would have thought. Pirates has been doing very strong Saturday and Sunday box office - both last weekend were better than it's Friday. The heatwave probably helped, and it did feel rather hot today. So Pirates probably will finish the weekend still ahead of Shrek2's pace... and probably stay ahead of it until next weekend.

Unless it gets yanked out of the theaters faster than most blockbusters, it should end up in perhaps the $420M range, +/- $5M. The only movie of this scale that I recall getting a seemingly fast yank were the two Spidey's, which seemed to get to DVD pretty quick.

I think this one would stay out longer if they thought they had a shot at Shrek2. They really don't, so I don't see it being left out there as long at some that are left out for ages. :)

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2006 12:52 am    Post subject: Re: Summer Box Office Update: Weekend of July 28-30 Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
* I did want to address something John brought up on the old forum as it pertains to the numbers Pirates 3 might draw.

I don't think Pirates 3 is going to catch Star Wars' numbers. It will have to contend with Shrek 3, and if the first two Shrek movies are any indication, Shrek 3 could do big box office numbers and siphon away some of the money Pirates 3 could generate. Spidey 3 will have been in theaters for a few weeks prior to Pirates 3 debuting, but if Spidey 3 has legs, it could also cut into Pirates 3's numbers.


I didn't know Pirates was coming out on Memorial Day weekend. I thought it was in its same old spot later in the Summer, and that given the monster success of this one, folks would run like hell from it. :)

There had been buzz that after the increase in box office by the most recent Potter movie that the series would go back to November release dates rather than the "every 18 months" cycle they slipped into with the 3rd and 4th movies. I can totally understand Pirates taking Memorial Day weekend to avoid the direct competition.

I tend to think Pirates is making a mistake moving up to 5/25. They really should move it back to the similar 6/29. Die Hard4 would move off that date. It would give Pirates the week before the 4th, then weekend after the 4th (which is Wed), and then being the clear #2 movie the weekend of Potter (getting the benefit of people getting shutout by sellouts). I think Potter would then cut into its "weekday" legs, but by that point Pirates2 would already have been through the roof.

Shrek3 vs. Pirates3... I don't know who will win. I think Pirates3 will cut significantly into Shrek3. Shrek2 pulled in $72M it's second weekend, which just beat out a huge opening by The Day After Tomorrow - $69M. I think we all know that Pirates3 if it's even *decent* is going to pull in another $130M on its opening weekend _with_ Memorial Day tossing in another ridiculous amount of money to the total. It's going to be really hard to pull in $72M in three days while another movie is pulling in $130 - I just don't think there are enough folks going to the movies in one weekend to pull in that number. :)

On the other hand, Shrek2 pulled in $128,983,060 from Wed-Sun on its opening. We can safely say it's going to do a shitload more than that. $108M of it was on the weekend, and it should top that.

I *think* that Pirates3 may end up topping Shrek3 since it's closer to "school's out" time while Shrek3 is further away. More time of being able to do decent weekday box office should help it. And Shrek2, while having great legs, didn't have this level of competition until it ran into Potter3. That cut the movie down to $37M, which was a 47% drop, vastly bigger than its second week drop against the non-direct competition of The Day After Tomorrow.

Pirates also has, at the moment, no opposition that second week. That's good for Shrek3 - it's going to be #2 again in all likelihood, and with good numbers. But Pirates looks to do a wacky high number there.

John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2006 2:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Couple of counterpoints

* As I recall, Shrek 2 was going up against Spidey 2 for at least a couple of weeks. So Shrek 2 did have more competition than just Harry Potter 3.

* Spidey 3 will still be in theaters Memorial Day weekend next year. There are certainly going to be people who figure to wait until the Memorial Day weekend to watch a movie, and if Spidey 3 gets good reviews, those people will almost certainly pick Spidey 3 because its longer run in theaters means it's closer to the eventual end of its run, and these people figure the lines will be shorter because more people have already seen it.

So Spidey 3, along with Shrek 3, will be cutting into Pirates 3's number.

Again, I really don't see Pirates 3 equalling the opening for Pirates 2 on Friday through Sunday numbers alone. On the other hand, if Pirates 3 gets good reviews from critics and fans, it'll have good legs and pull in a strong number the following weekend.

With the Spidey franchise, the second movie got a more favorable response from critics and seemed to be the same with fans. If Spidey 3 gets an even more favorable response, it will cut into both Shrek 3 and Pirates 3 on Memorial Day weekend... not that it will beat them, but it will pull enough money away to keep Shrek 3 and Pirates 3 from reaching a high mark.

If Spidey 3 doesn't get a favorable response, then it won't have any impact.

Shrek 2 got about the same favorable response from critics as Shrek did, but the numbers showed the fans certainly liked it more. If fans like Shrek 3 even more, it will cut into Pirates 3 as well.

As for Pirates 3, critics haven't been as favorable to Pirates 2 as they were with Pirates, but the numbers Pirates 2 is pulling certainly suggests more than enough fans are happy. So there's no doubt in my mind Pirates 3 will be at least a $300 milllion franchise. The question is whether it can top Pirates 2, given that Shrek 3 will be there and Spidey 3 will still be around, and I just don't see it happening.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2006 2:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And in the meantime, your latest box office update

* Talladega Nights: estimated $47 million. Well on its way to being a $100 million franchise. We'll see how it finishes compared to films such as Click and You, Me and Dupree.

* Pirates 2 adds more than $11 million, just shy of $380 million total.

* Miami Vice drops down to $9.6 million. Doesn't look like it will have legs.

* Cars pulls in more than $1 million again.

* Barnyard pulled in $16 million. That was surprising, given that I figured most people would be tiring of CGI animated movies for the summer.
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corrado



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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2006 2:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A bigger than expected gross for Talledga Nights. It'll be at the top next week, though in 2 weeks, SNAKES ON A PLANE will take over.

The Barnyard doing well surprises me, since I figured that the avalanche of CGI films released this summer would've turned people off, but I was wrong. It did better than expected. And it could hold up in the weeks to come, since thankfully there's no other CGI films out this summer.

I thought the Descent would do well, but it didn't. Perhaps it if was released in the fall, it could've done better.
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eron



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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2006 3:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

corrado wrote:
I thought the Descent would do well, but it didn't. Perhaps it if was released in the fall, it could've done better.


We're getting Saw III in the fall, and Maple won't be having two horror franchises compete against each other. Releasing Descent now is best for business.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2006 9:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
Couple of counterpoints

* As I recall, Shrek 2 was going up against Spidey 2 for at least a couple of weeks. So Shrek 2 did have more competition than just Harry Potter 3.


05/07/04 Van Helsing
05/14/04 Troy
05/21/04 Shrek 2
05/28/04 The Day After Tomorrow
06/04/04 Potter 3
06/11/04 Chronicles of Riddick / Garfield / Stepford Wives
06/18/04 Dodgeball
06/25/04 Fahrenheit 9/11 / White Chicks
07/02/04 Spidey 2

Shrek2 was over $400M before Spidey2 ever came out.


Quote:
* Spidey 3 will still be in theaters Memorial Day weekend next year. There are certainly going to be people who figure to wait until the Memorial Day weekend to watch a movie, and if Spidey 3 gets good reviews, those people will almost certainly pick Spidey 3 because its longer run in theaters means it's closer to the eventual end of its run, and these people figure the lines will be shorter because more people have already seen it.


Spidey2 didn't have legs last time. $180M in its extended Wed-Mon opening. It was at $277M by the end it's second week, which is when Shrek2 shows up. It has less than $100M after that, which while that isn't bad it's isn't mind numbing considering what was coming up from the third weekend on (I Robot, Bourne Supremacy, Village, Collateral) contained no movie that would get to $200M the balance of the year.

Box Office has gotten considerably more frontloaded since 2004 when Shrek2 and Spidey2 came out. It's almost certain that the next in the series will have *less* legs than the previous ones.

Hell, the current Pirates has less long term legs than Pirates 1. Last week it was down to $30M vs. $29M for P-2 vs. P-1. This weekend, Pirates 1 topped what Pirates 2 took in, and it will easily beat it during the week. Pirates 1 had another $72M to make after this weekend. Any bets on Pirates2 making another $72M to get up to $451M? I didn't think so. :)

Pirates has had outstanding legs for *this* year. That's with literally nothing coming up behind it. Shrek2 had great legs, but a massive amount of that was the monster second weekend (and week) up against non-direct competition. It did well in the wake of Potter 3.


Quote:
Again, I really don't see Pirates 3 equalling the opening for Pirates 2 on Friday through Sunday numbers alone. On the other hand, if Pirates 3 gets good reviews from critics and fans, it'll have good legs and pull in a strong number the following weekend.


I'm willing to bet that the Friday-Monday of Pirates3 will utterly destroy the $154M that Pirates2 made Fri-Mon - Memorial Day will allow them to do it.

I also wouldn't be surprised if Pirates 3 does better than the $136M than Pirates2 did from Fri-Sun.

Where you are right is that Pirates3 probably won't do the $55.8M Friday that Pirates2 did. This time around is was a Summer Friday, which means kids could go all day on Friday. Next time around, it's a school day. On the other hand, since that opening Friday, this Pirates has done better on both Saturday and Sunday than Firday on *every* weekend. I'd expect Pirates 3 to have a huge Friday opening as people want to see it opening night. But I would expect Sat-Mon to be monsterous as all the folks who couldn't see it Friday (due to evening sellouts) swamping the theaters.

This was the case with those other pre-school's out movies - bigger Saturdays than Fridays. We are seeing now that some movies peek on Friday anyway as the marks rush out to see it. But I have a feeling that both Shrek3 and Pirates3 are going to peak on their first Saturday. And since they're going to do monsterous Friday business anyway, I think they'll both top what Part 2 in each franchise did in their opening weekends.


Quote:
With the Spidey franchise, the second movie got a more favorable response from critics and seemed to be the same with fans.


I'm not entirely certain. The fans weren't fired up enough to come out and see it in higher numbers than Spidey1. That's not a sign of a movie they liked more. :)


Quote:
If Spidey 3 gets an even more favorable response, it will cut into both Shrek 3 and Pirates 3 on Memorial Day weekend... not that it will beat them, but it will pull enough money away to keep Shrek 3 and Pirates 3 from reaching a high mark.


I don't think Spidey3 will cut into Shrek3 at all. It's going to have two weekends to itself before Shrek3 comes out, and be down in the $30M-$40M range by that point. Memorial Day weekend will be its 4th weekend in release. Spidey2 was down to $15M while Spidey1 was down to $28M. That *didn't* come opposite the 2nd week of a Shrek and the *1st* week of a Pirates set of blockbusters.

Unless Spidey3 has Titanic level magic (as in a once a decade phenom on the levels of SW, ET and Titanic), it's going to have _zero_ impact on just how big of business Shrek3 and Pirates3 do on Memorial Day Weekend.

I totally agree that long term, Shrek3 *might* impact Pirates3, just like Pirates3 *might* impact the ultimate box office of Shrek3. It's up in the air how much they will impact each other.

But I think you're vastly overrating the impact of a movie four weeks out in this changing environment. It's an environment that will likely skew even more next year.


Quote:
Shrek 2 got about the same favorable response from critics as Shrek did, but the numbers showed the fans certainly liked it more. If fans like Shrek 3 even more, it will cut into Pirates 3 as well.


Who knows. I don't think folks liked this Pirates more than Pirates1. But it is kicking the living shit out of it. :)

It's all up in the air on what type of quality that Shrek3 and Pirates3 show up in. I think regardless of quality, they will do monsterous openings. Attack of the Clones was a shitty movie. Only the marks still defend it. But it still did a monster opening. These are going to be the same. It flat out doesn't matter how good Shrek3 is - Pirates3 will open a monster. From that point on, the repeat views and buzz will be determined by the quality and "enjoyability" of the flicks.


Quote:
As for Pirates 3, critics haven't been as favorable to Pirates 2 as they were with Pirates, but the numbers Pirates 2 is pulling certainly suggests more than enough fans are happy. So there's no doubt in my mind Pirates 3 will be at least a $300 milllion franchise. The question is whether it can top Pirates 2, given that Shrek 3 will be there and Spidey 3 will still be around, and I just don't see it happening.


Unless Spidey3 is an exceptional movie, it likely will come in #3 of this mix. Otherwise, it's going to be totally frontloaded, and down at Spidey2 levels by Memorial Day Weekend. That's a massive problem - Spidey2 had Summer Weekdays, whereas in early Spidey1 didn't. If it's just an "okay" movie, it's not getting past the $325M range.

I think Pirates3 has three massive advantages:

(i) it's just one year removed from the last movie

(ii) it has a cliff hanger drawing people naturally in to "see what happens next"

(iii) it comes last in line, and coming up behind it is no $300M movie until possibly Potter5 in late June

I think if there was no Shrek3 that Spidey3 would have a shot to be #1 if it had the same buzz that Spidey1 built. But I think Shrek3 hurts Spidey3, and Pirates3 toasts it as a 1-2 punch. That leaves it to whichever of Shrek3 or Pirates3 gets the right buzz going with the fans.


John
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eron



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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2006 11:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Things to remember about Shrek 3 and Spidey 3:

Pros:
- Shrek 3 will revolve around the Knights of the Round Table.
- Spider-Man 3 will have the Venom storyline, which fans have been clamouring for from the very beginning, and even if Topher Grace wasn't the choice people wanted (They all remembered steroided up Eddie Brock, which many people were begging for Brock Lesnar of all people to play him just for size. Stupid people...). If the Venom storyline is successful, they could ride three films just on it alone (3: Venom begins, 4: Venom vs. Spidey, 5: Spidey and Venom vs. Carnage and Symbiotes).
- Thomas Haden Church is playing Sandman, which will bring in the Boondock Saints tards.

Cons:
- Shrek 3 will have Justin Timberlake voicing a "young King Arthur". Even if he brings in the girls just by his voice, I probably won't see the movie based on this alone (Side note, his new single is one of the worst "Dance pop songs" I have ever heard in my life).
- Topher Grace isn't really that good of an actor, and while he does play a Parker clone well (which is what Brock originally was), I can't see how his acting will evolve enough to be Venom.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 07, 2006 9:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Knights of the Round Table has a shot of working well with Shrek3... but who knows. It's tough to tell if it's a series (and creative team) that can maintain a level of quality/enjoyability that draws in repeat viewers (which is needed for $400M).

On the Venom storyline... I think we need to differentiate between "fans" and "the masses". Spidey1 didn't make $400M because of "fans". It was a near-phenomana that crossed massive audience lines to reach a wide chunk of the "masses". I'm not sure that a ton of them were really getting too worked up about *any* storyline for future ones other than Tobey getting to bang Dunst. If they were thinking ahead to the sequel beyond that, it was in the hopes that the second one would be as "cool" as the first.

I think we all know that there's a limited number of hardcore fans out there. By limited, I don't mean small. Superhero movies based on comic books have a long track record of doing good business. But they are a limited number relative to the masses that make a super blockbuster at the box office like Spidey, the first Batman, the original Superman, etc. Even if you play to the hardcores and deliever 100% the storyline they want, if it doesn't also cross to the masses to get them to repeat-view, there's only so far that the box office will go.

So...

It's really too hard at the moment to block out how these will do at the box office. We just don't know which of these will be seen by fans as "strong" entries into the series. If Spidey3 is as well received by fans as Spidey1, it will do huge business. If Pirates3 is as well received by fans as Pirates2 was, it's going to be monsterous. Dittos Shrek3.

Given the reviews and fan tracking, who would have thought that Pirates3 would be *this* huge - as in $420M or so?

So it's a bit of wait and see.

We'll have to dust off some board pool on the summer box office next year. We could dump Spidey-3, Shrek-3, Pirates-3, Potter5 and perhaps one "wild card" selection by the poster to put into the hopper... figure out how we would judge stuff. A winter pool doesn't look to interesting without a Potter-LotR or Potter-Narnia-Kong set of anchors to it.


John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Aug 07, 2006 1:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As I mentioned earlier, I do think the fact that Pirates 2 didn't have much strong competition against it allowed it do a good chunk of business. Somebody who is a Pirates fan, even if he isn't giving a glowing review of Pirates 2, is going to pick Pirates 2 above a movie that he has no clue about and reads reviews that pan it.

Movies such as Lady in the Water, You, Me and Dupree, Miami Vice and Ant Bully didn't do much at all to cut into Pirates 2's box office. Miami Vice may have topped Pirates 2 at the box office the week Vice debuted, but the following week, Vice dropped below Pirates 2. So I wouldn't count Vice as competition for Pirates 2.

Superman Returns was the only movie that had a realistic shot at giving Pirates 2 a run. It didn't catch on, so Pirates 2 could pull in a larger box office.

That's not to say Pirates 2 wouldn't have pulled in a lot of money if Superman Returns had caught on. The original Pirates developed a strong fanbase that would ensure a strong box office for Pirates 2 unless Pirates 2 gave fans "Back to the Future Part 2 vibes," or that the sequel just wasn't that satisfying.

On the subject of Superman Returns, John's point about a movie needing to have widespread appeal was the problem with Superman Returns. To get that widespread appeal, you had to draw in the fans who loved the original first two movies, and that meant Brandon Routh and company had to give a performance that made people declare them better than Christopher Reeve and company... and that would have been the case even if the new Superman movie hadn't simply been a follow-up of the first two original Superman movies.

But I digress there.

Anyway, you have four summer movies next year that have strong fanbases already. All four should do strong openings. Whether any of them set new records remain to be seen, but how they all ultimately do overall at the box office depends largely on fan reaction to them. If any one of them gets "Back to the Future Part 2" vibe, there goes the legs, since there should be better competition. Harry Potter 5 might be the exception, unless Transformers ends up with "mass appeal" or The Simpsons movie rides the "mass appeal" the TV show has to pull away the Potter fanbase.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Aug 07, 2006 1:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jdw wrote:
We'll have to dust off some board pool on the summer box office next year. We could dump Spidey-3, Shrek-3, Pirates-3, Potter5 and perhaps one "wild card" selection by the poster to put into the hopper... figure out how we would judge stuff. A winter pool doesn't look to interesting without a Potter-LotR or Potter-Narnia-Kong set of anchors to it.


I'd say the "wild card" selection would have to be The Simpsons movie. The TV show has mass appeal and would likely be the best bet out of the non-sequel movies to catch that same appeal in the theaters.

Or if you must, take Fantastic Four 2, although the original was largely panned by critics and didn't really seem to win its hardcore fanbase over. Personally, I think FF2 is more likely to bomb, unless it gets much better reviews than the first FF got.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 07, 2006 2:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
As I mentioned earlier, I do think the fact that Pirates 2 didn't have much strong competition against it allowed it do a good chunk of business. Somebody who is a Pirates fan, even if he isn't giving a glowing review of Pirates 2, is going to pick Pirates 2 above a movie that he has no clue about and reads reviews that pan it.

Movies such as Lady in the Water, You, Me and Dupree, Miami Vice and Ant Bully didn't do much at all to cut into Pirates 2's box office.


I agree... but you're missing my point.

Those are movies that came out after Pirates.

Pirates still opened with a $136M Fri-Sun opening weekend. Even if it had strong competition coming up the following weekend (let's just say a Spidey3), it still would be sitting at nearly $200M *before* it ran any competition.

Competition from a movie that opened the week before means hardly anything for blockbusters of this size, and for movies that opened 2-3 weeks before they mean nothing on the size of the opening.

Pirates3 has Memorial day in addition to Fri-Sun next time around. It opened to $154M Fri-Mon this time. I promise you that it's going top top that next year unless the bottom falls out of the entire movie industry. It doesn't matter how big Shrek3 is, or if Spidey has the greatest legs the industy has ever seen. Pirates3 is just going to do monsterous business those first four days it opens.

After that, I honestly think it means far less how Spidey (which will be a non-factor that far into its release) and Shrek3 are doing. The key is going to be whether Pirates3 connects with the fans. This first two movies did that amazingly well.


Quote:
Miami Vice may have topped Pirates 2 at the box office the week Vice debuted, but the following week, Vice dropped below Pirates 2. So I wouldn't count Vice as competition for Pirates 2.


I don't count it as competition either. But it's also post-release competition, where Shrek3 and Spidey3 are *pre-release* ones that you're trying to offer up. It's apples and oranges.

Competition coming up after Pirates is light until Potter5 shows up in July. There are some movies that could do well, but I wouldn't be surprised if some of them (like Oceans 13) start thinking about moving out of the monster wake that will be the Shrek3+Pirates3 combo.

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Superman Returns was the only movie that had a realistic shot at giving Pirates 2 a run. It didn't catch on, so Pirates 2 could pull in a larger box office.


Superman was pre-release.


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That's not to say Pirates 2 wouldn't have pulled in a lot of money if Superman Returns had caught on. The original Pirates developed a strong fanbase that would ensure a strong box office for Pirates 2 unless Pirates 2 gave fans "Back to the Future Part 2 vibes," or that the sequel just wasn't that satisfying.


I think we'll relize in hindsight that Pirates2 given the quality/enjoyment factor connecting with the fans was destined to be this big. We haven't had a mega movie in a while. Box Office was blah this year, and not just for the summer. Not a damn think interested folks. Pirates hit the spot.

It's also a myth that only one movie can be monsterous at a time. There was room for Matrix Reloaded (5/15), Bruce Almighty (5/23) and Nemo (5/30) all to make money in 2003. Matrix was massively frontloaded... and that's a frontload that movies like Pirates2 are destroying now.


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On the subject of Superman Returns, John's point about a movie needing to have widespread appeal was the problem with Superman Returns. To get that widespread appeal, you had to draw in the fans who loved the original first two movies, and that meant Brandon Routh and company had to give a performance that made people declare them better than Christopher Reeve and company... and that would have been the case even if the new Superman movie hadn't simply been a follow-up of the first two original Superman movies.


We're a quarter century past the first two Reeves movies, and those movies were never a cultural phenom like SW or ET. Kids who were 5 when Superman came out would be 33 now. That's hardly a core audience for packing them in now. Drawing in fans who loved those movies was pretty moot for the new one drawing.

This really needed to pop a *new* group of fans strongly. It didn't really connect. It's pretty sad when we're calling a $190M box office "disappointing"... but given the cost and the hype, it certainly is.


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Anyway, you have four summer movies next year that have strong fanbases already. All four should do strong openings. Whether any of them set new records remain to be seen, but how they all ultimately do overall at the box office depends largely on fan reaction to them. If any one of them gets "Back to the Future Part 2" vibe, there goes the legs, since there should be better competition.


No doubt. But that's the risk to any franchise. Go look up the numbers for the Batman series.


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Harry Potter 5 might be the exception, unless Transformers ends up with "mass appeal" or The Simpsons movie rides the "mass appeal" the TV show has to pull away the Potter fanbase.


Potter is utterly bulletproof when it comes to "openings". It's going to "fall out of bed" to do a $90M to $100M opening weekend, and about a $50M second weekend. The movies simply do not have extended legs, but they will do that much.

It's going to have no impact on the other movies - a strange 7/13 opening.

It's a bit like Spidey opening back on the front end early May. Given the current frontloading in box office, by the time the end of the month comes, it's going to be lucky to pull the $15M that it pulled on the 4th week of release for Spidey2.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 07, 2006 2:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
I'd say the "wild card" selection would have to be The Simpsons movie.


I was think more in the sense that the contestant could pick any "big" movie he wanted... and that we figure out a method to give credit for the pick.

Prior pools were about making close guess on where the movie would finish after X number of weeks. For the "wild card", we'd want to have a balance between the player picking something that would make a big chunk o' money, but also doing a good job of predicting it. I.E. - we want give credit for the "safe" picks like Fantastic 4, but also reward someone who takes a flyer on a Bruce Almighty (when Carey looked close to through) that hit's it out of the park.

Robar is probably the guy who could figure out a formula to do that. :)


John


John
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