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Summer Box Office Thread 2007
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The Greatest Man Alive



Joined: 03 Sep 2006
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Location: Manassas, VA

PostPosted: Mon May 21, 2007 7:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jdw wrote:
I would hazzard a guess the majority of people who saw Pirates 2 liked it. I don't think a movie like that gets to $400M+ without 33% or more being repeat viewers. And I doubt that a great deal of the balance had a "bad taste" in their mouth. You now... that Clooney Batman level of bad taste. :)


One negative is the length of the movie - it's not short, so they won't be able to cycle through as many showings. I'm not as sure that's the level of problem it use to be. In Multiplexes, they have these movies running on multiple screens the first few weeks out.


John


A lot of people hated Pirates 2 and a lot of people loved it. I'm really unsure what to think of it as far as opening numbers.

As for the length/showings, I saw Shrek 3 today at 1:10 with the theater 75-80% full on a pre-summer Monday afternoon and it was the first of 22 showings there today. Spidey 3 still has 15 showings there. Pirates will get much the same treatment for at least its first two weeks and maybe its third.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue May 22, 2007 3:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jdw wrote:
$300M is pretty much a lock. It will get by $200M next weekend when the competition will be 28 Weeks Later and Georgia Rule.

It will fall sharply the third week when Shrek-3 comes out, and go off the cliff the weekend after (Memorial Day weekend) when Pirates-3 comes out.

It's good to keep Spidey-2's box office in mind:

$88,156,227 Week 1
$45,180,743 Week 2 (-48.7%)
$24,775,450 Week 3 (-45.2%)


Spidey-3:

$151,116,516 Week 1
$58,166,256 Week 2 (-61.5%)
$29,022,026 Week 3 (-50.1%)

Spidey-3 has a $80,192,378 lead on the opening three "weekends".

So Spidey-3 is beating the shit out of Spidey-2, right? Through their third Monday:

$305,304,586 Spidey-2
$284,729,332 Spidey-3

Why?

Quote:
Spidey 2 was helped in its overall Box Office by being a July 4 release, so it got lots of weekday box office. I think one of the things we saw on OW for Spidey is that folks are either going to see it this weekend or next weekend. Weekdays probably aren't going to match Spidey-2's.


Exactly. Weekday business:

$147,192,166 Spidey-2
$46,424,534 Spidey-2

One of those weekdays of course was the 4th, so it's a "holiday". But that still is the timing of these releases.

Spidey-2 also had $64M in Wed-Thur business business before it's opening weekend. It's why Spidey-2's "opening weekend" looks so low. It actually did $180M from it's Wed 6/30 Opening to the Mon July 5 holiday.

Spidey-3 has been playing catch up the whole way. It pulls close on weekends, then gives back on weekdays.

Spidey-1 actually jumped ahead of Spidey-3's pace this weekend. We all know it would move ahead at some point, since the new one isn't going to get to $400M. Spidey-1 was about $36M behind at the end of opening weekend. It caught up by the third Sunday, which gives an idea of it's strong legs.


Quote:
Spidey-2 got to $373M. I think this weekend and next weekend tell us if Spidey-3 gets to $350M and if it has a shot at $400M. I don't think it's getting to $400M given the way the summer is set up (namely Pirate 3's odd decision to move to a week after Shrek 3). There's just too many big movies coming after Pirates that are going to eat up it's theater count and fans attention.

Not getting past $350M would have to be a disappointment to the studio.


$400M was out of the equation on the second weekend. It's $21M behind the pace of Spidey-2, which as mentioned above got to $373M. I think this weekend is the end of the trend of Spidey-3 topping Spidey-3's weekend numbers. If that's the case, it's unlikely that Spidey-3 will get to $350M.

My guess would be $325M-$350M. Probably under $340M.


John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed May 23, 2007 2:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pirates is getting some tough love on the Tomatometer:

Tomatometer: Pirates 3

The comments tend to be similar to the ones in the LA Times review this morning: long, bloated, loads of plot lines that are hard to track in the first 2/3rds, smack bag run to the finish.

Until I see it, I'm not sure what to make of some of the comments in the Times. She made the comment that you had to be well versed in the earlier movies, and that this one was adding plot lines well into the movie. Half of me wondered if she wanted a dumber movie that she could sit back and enjoy. The other half of me did wonder if it was overly bloated with plot elements that could have been chopped.


John
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eron



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PostPosted: Wed May 23, 2007 2:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jdw wrote:
The other half of me did wonder if it was overly bloated with plot elements that could have been chopped.


They do seem to add a completely new extension to the storyline with the Pirate Union or whatever. Several new characters are adding with this, though I'm sure many are reduced to cameos (Like the Japanese female Pirate Leader). However, it still means there is likely some time spent in Singapore and the like following the characters gathering up the Union, then having meetings about stopping the East India Trade company and Davey Jones.

There will likely be time spent on Davey Jones coming to an agreement to help Beckett, which might be long as well. Why would a ghostly pirate work with Beckett, trying to destroy the Pirates?

Even if the movie is a little bloated, I can't see me not enjoying the little stories if they go somewhere. I gotta admit, I actually enjoying plunking down for three hours and watching an Epic. I'd rather that then see an hour and a half of comedy for the cost of 8 bucks.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Wed May 30, 2007 10:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's a new Memorial Day weekend record, as Pirates 3 pulled in $139.8 million.

With Thursday previews, Pirates 3 grossed $153 million.

The three-day weekend (that is, excluding Monday) total was $114.7 million. The three-day total was less than the opening weekend of Pirates 2 ($136.5 million), whereas both Spidey 3 and Shrek 3 had better opening weekends than their prior sequels.

That being said, Shrek 3 dropped quite a bit, to $67 million, a 45-percent drop. It's much greater than Shrek 2, which dropped just 12 percent from its opening weekend. Of course, Pirates 3 likely has a lot to do with Shrek 3 dropping as much as it did.

Nevertheless, $300 million should be in the bag for both Shrek 3 and Pirates 3.

What remains to be seen with Pirates 3 is its legs... it should surpass the gross Pirates 1 received, but it may fall short of the total gross for Pirates 2 if it doesn't have the legs Pirates 2 had. There aren't really any movies opening this weekend that are expected to be big blockbusters, so Pirates 3 could pull in a lot of revenue, but it remains to be seen.

Spidey 3 passed the $300 million mark this past weekend.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 03, 2007 12:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First Weekend
$153,042,234 Pirates-3
$151,116,516 Spidey-3
$122,536,609 Shrek-3

Second Weekend
$67,010,012 Shrek-3
$58,166,256 Spidey-3
$43,188,000 Pirates-3

Third Weekend
$29,022,026 Spidey-3
$26,704,000 Shrek-3

Pirates "first weekend" includes Thursday early airings along with Monday Memorial Day. Shrek's second weekend includes Memorial day. I think this is reasonable as people in each of those "weekends" planned out which day of the four they see it.

Overall, Spidey is up to $318M off a $7.5M weekend. It was still in 3400+ theaters, but that's likely to drop considerably this coming weekend with a full plate of new releases (Ocean's Thirteen, Surf's Up, Hostel II). Still, it's going to go comfortably past $325M. $350M is probably the high end of where it can go.

Shrek-3 is up to $250M. It was doing moderately better on the weekdays than Spidey, but was beat this weekend. It's week three goes up against Spidey's $18M Memorial Day weekend. I don't think it will get there, expecially with Surf's Up coming out. On the daily box office, it's $27M+ behind Spidey-3. I don't see it catching up. It should get to $300M unless it falls off the cliff massively.

Pirates is $24M behind Spidey's pace, and will likely be only $2M ahead of Shrek's pace come Monday (Shrek's had Memorial Day). Pirates had a massive fall off from its Opening Weekend.

I'm not sure if it's going to get to $300M.

I think they made a rather large strategic decision to open it on Memorial Day weekend rather than Fri June 29, the weekend before July 4. I think that if it staked it's claim to that day, Die Hard and Ratatouille would have moved way the hell away from the day. More than that, Transformers would likely have moved from July 3, not wanting to get stuck between the extended opening weekend of Pirates on one side and the Wed July 11 opening of Potter.

I think you can't underestimate the ability to pull in $12M to $18M a day from Mon-Thur those opening no-school day weekdays. Also, with July 4th on a Wed, this will be a major "extended weekend" in two directions for people around the country - people either taking the 2nd and 3rd off, or taking the 5th and 6th off... or taking all of it off.

I'm not really sure why neither Pirates or Potter didn't take that slot. Again, if they had, no one would have wanted to go against them... and very few would have wanted to go against them the following weekend give how monsterously those movies open.

This one was odd. There's a reason that one of the candidates for "the biggest movies of the year" title opens the weekend *before* Memorial Day in the Star Wars Slot. You get that big opening weekend, then you get a huge second weekend with the extended Memorial Day weekend.

If you open on Memorial Day weekend, especially the way it falls on the calendar this year, your second weekend happens to fall on a weekend where a lot of kids start having to prepare for Finals and Year End Projects in school. It often can be a soft weekend before things pick back up.

This year was, and it will likely pick up in the coming weeks.

So... odd.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2007 4:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It looks like Spidey-3 might win the Summer Box Office race unless something yet to be released turns into a phenom.

Shrek-3 is tracking ahead of Spidey day-by-day, but at the moment it's not a massive amount. To date, through Friday, Spidey looks to have about a $23M lead over Shrek-3. The amount that Shek is slicing off isn't that great - just $2M for the entire past week. I don't think the pace of slicing is enough to catch Spidey.

Pirates is slightly ahead of the pace of Shrek-3, but probably won't be by the end of the weekend... certainly not by the end of the business week on Thursday.

Surf's Up didn't greatly cut into Shrek's box office, which I admit surprises the hell out of me. It's review in the LA Times was positive, and it's 74% on the Tomatometer is pretty good relative to most of the blockbusters this summer. Happy Feet pulled in a 74% on the Tomamometer and bagged $198M last year. The two Ice Ages bagged $175M+, while Madagascar took $193M, and even Over the Hedge last year in a tough opening weekend (Davinci opened) ended up opening to $138M and had nice legs to $155M. Over the Hedge is what I was using as my "low baseline" for the movie... and it seems that I was flat out wrong. $10.8M opening Friday for that film... double Surf's Up.

I thought Oceans 13 would be in the $50M+ range this week (which is where it looks like it might be headed), while Surf did $30M+. Perhaps Surf's Up will do strong Sat-Sun family business, but it's slow on Friday and doesn't seem likely.

Looking ahead, I don't know what's going to top the roughly $330M that Spidey-3 will take in. If that's the case, this will be the lowest Summer King since 2001 when Shrek won the summer with a $267M take, with only one other summer movie break the $200M make (The Mummy Returns), and that just barely did it by $2M. 2001's box office was anchored by the late year blockbusters (Potter-1, LOTR-1 and Monsters Inc.) along with the fall surprise of Rush Hour.

The Big 3 so far of summer this year will end up combining to make $900M. That's not exactly terribly, but the last movies in these series combined:

$373,585,825 Spidey-2
$441,226,247 Shrek-2
$423,315,812 Pirates-2
$1,238,127,884 Total

The currect three are going to need to add in the Potter film coming up to get there... and that will be a stretch. Only one Potter has made $300M+ in the US, and that was the first. The last one was considered a great success to by coming back from the $250M disappointment of the third one back up to $290M. This faces the same issue of the third one - Summer release, where Potter doesn't seem to do as well. On the other hand... it is being timed to tie in the the finale of the book series. That may give it a boost. It also is being set at the far end of the summer blockbusters, so the concept seems to be that if it's well received that it might get legs. Who knows.

I find it hard to be Fan-4 and Transformers can be the Summer King. Pixar appears to have peaked with Nemo being a phenom. I wouldn't be surprised if that group has another phenom in them at some point, but I do not think that Ratatouille is it. I don't think it will top Cars from last year, which came in at $244M. Rats can do business... but I dont' think the cooking aspect will play with kids to the degree to get much past $200M, if it can even get there. It's possible that it might be the lowest grossing Pixar movie. Bugs Life at $162M holds that mark back in 1998 when Pixar just had Toy Story under its belt and wasn't the huge studio it became.

So...

I think Spidey looks like it will bag the Summer Crown. If you asked me before summer and even after it opened if I thought Spidey would win, I'd recommend folks put down the bong. I just didn't think the timing of its opening, nor that its second weekend screamed "$350M tops", would allow it to hold up. I was certain that either Shrek or Pirates would punch a big hole in $350M.


John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Jun 10, 2007 11:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Pirates series is one that, after having watched all three films, I likened a bit to Back to the Future in terms of the order I rank them, with the first being the best, then the third, then the second.

We know that Pirates 2 drew big its first two weekends, and I tend to think much of that was the success of Pirates 1, including those who never saw Pirates 1 in the theaters, but did watch it on DVD and decided it was worth going to the theater to see the sequel.

In terms of box office, looking at what the Back to the Future series did:

BTTF 1: $210,609,762
BTTF 2: $118,450,002
BTTF 3: $87,727,583

The first BTTF opened July 3, 1985, a Wednesday. Through the Sunday that followed, thus including the Fourth of July total, it pulled in $14,745,039. From that point, its legs were very strong. As a comparison, here are the first two Saturdays for the first BTTF.

First Saturday: $4,285,380
Second Saturday: $3,854,477

Its drop from the first weekend to the second was very low. That pretty much indicated the first BTTF was on its way to being a box office smash for its time.

The second one opened the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. It didn't do Pirates 2 type business, and lost its legs quickly after opening to $43,016,225 (that's the Wednesdasy through Sunday number).

The third opened Memorial Day weekend and drew $23,703,060 for the entire weekend. then failed to break $100 million for its total gross.

Box Office Mojo lists the second two as having production budgets of $40 million. Since the two were filmed at the same time, I'm not certain if that reflects the combined total for both, or each separately.

Even so, the third film was definitely a disappointment at the box office.

Pirates 1 was similar to BTTF 1 in that it had very good legs. Pirates 2 did better than BTTF 2, but one _might_ argue that opening during the summer helped Pirates 2 a bit. Still, I'd consider the argument a red herring.

Anyway, part of me wonders if not enough people were really satisfied with Pirates 2 that they weren't interested in Pirates 3 any longer. BTTF 3 certainly suffered from that problem.

Looking at Pirates 1 versus Pirates 2 to get an idea of the legs of both.

Pirates 1 first weekend: $46,630,690
Dropoff for second weekend: 27 percent
Pirates 2 first weekend: $135,634,554
Dropoff for second weekend: 54 percent

Pirates 2 opened to such a huge number that it was guaranteed to be a $300 million franchise, and it had better legs than BTFF 2 did.

But in terms of legs for the overall run, Pirates 1 clearly had better legs than Pirates 2. To get to $300 million when opening at less than $50 million means your film really has to have staying power.

Pirates 1 clearly fits the comparison of BTTF 1... they were both movies that didn't blow away box office numbers to start, but they kept drawing in people, and very likely people who weren't going to see it at first, but ended up doing so because word of mouth indicated this was a must-see film.

Pirates 2 did draw in a lot from that fanbase who saw Pirates 1 in theaters or on DVD, but while it ended up with a big box office number, it doesn't appear to have done enough to convince people to see Pirates 3, just as BTTF 2 failed to convince enough people to see BTTF 3.

Anyway... the Pirates and BTTF franchises do have some differences, but their similarities are there as well.

As for other summer movies, Fantastic Four 2 isn't going to be it unless reviews end up being better than for the first one and word of mouth spreads that it's a film worth seeing in theaters. Pixar's films seem destined to be at least $150 million draws unless the quality really drops, but I can't ever see another Pixar franchise hitting it as big as Nemo did, unless they come up with a good storyline and some setting that blows people away like Nemo did. Transformers will desperately need strong reviews out of the gate to have any chance of pulling in more than $150 million, as its audience is limited.

We'll see what Harry Potter can do, and the wild card is the Simpsons movie. I don't think Simpsons will draw $300 million or even close to it, but it is a franchise people are long familiar with and the show has stuck around longer than most people would have thought, so who knows. It could be the surprise hit that the first Pirates was if it opens to strong reviews and has any legs.
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The Greatest Man Alive



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PostPosted: Sun Jun 10, 2007 7:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:


Transformers will desperately need strong reviews out of the gate to have any chance of pulling in more than $150 million, as its audience is limited.

We'll see what Harry Potter can do, and the wild card is the Simpsons movie. I don't think Simpsons will draw $300 million or even close to it, but it is a franchise people are long familiar with and the show has stuck around longer than most people would have thought, so who knows. It could be the surprise hit that the first Pirates was if it opens to strong reviews and has any legs.


I'll be stunned if TF doesn't do $150 million. I'd be willing to wager that even decent reviews will push it up to around $100 million during the first [week]end. Wednesday opening could push it to $150 million that weekend if things break right for it. I've already got a large group that will be going opening day and more than half of them weren't alive when the last TF movie was released.

Agreed on the Simpsons movie being the biggest question mark of the summer. It's got a chance to be ridiculously huge, or just a solid hit. I can't see that one failing at all.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Jun 17, 2007 9:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fantastic Four 2 opened at $57.4 million. Its second weekend will tell the tale of whether it brings in more than the first FF4 did (that one finished at $157 million).

Pirates 3 is up to $273 million. At its current pace, it may not reach $300 million.

Knocked Up is on its way to passing $100 million. The studio has to be pretty happy about that.

Shrek 3 looks like it will pass $300 million this coming weekend.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 19, 2007 12:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Morris wrote:
Fantastic Four 2 opened at $57.4 million. Its second weekend will tell the tale of whether it brings in more than the first FF4 did (that one finished at $157 million).


Fan4.1 opened in the same range, about a million lower. It opened a little later in the summer (July 8). Charlie and the Chocolate Factory came out the following week, then Wedding Crashers in its third week.

My guess would be $130-150M.


Quote:
Pirates 3 is up to $273 million. At its current pace, it may not reach $300 million.


Disagree. It's still pulling in $1M+ per weekday, and likely will take in $6-7M+ in the coming weekend. It will be around $283M, and from there it can limp to $300M. Spidey at the same point (Monday):

$307,754,583 Spidey3
$275,582,000 Pirates3

Spidey has added another $23M, and was at $2.5M this past weekend for a $4.5M week. Pirates3's decline right now is better than Spidey right now.

I don't think Pirates3 is going to get far past $300M, but I do think they'll leave it out there long enough to get there.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 1:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pirates is up to $287M on a $7M weekend and after an $18M week.

I still tend to tie it to how much Spidey-3 had in the tank at this point in it's run, since Pirates-3 is closer to it's totals than Shrek-3. Spidey-3 has made another $14M since this point. It's coming off a $3.7M week and now a $1.3M weekend. It's not a great deal, but does show how money can keep trickling in.

Spidey-3 tends to win the weekends, while Pirates-3 takes advantage of the summer with school out to win the weekdays. It doesn't overcome the weekends, but keeps it close. It will likely take in $3M+ during the week, and probably $4M next weekendm being in the range of $294M. Unless they have a locked in date to pull the movie from release, I suspect they'll leave it out long enough to get to $300M. It's not going to get far past it, but getting there looks like a safe bet.

Shrek-3 is consistently cutting into Spidey's lead. I don't know if it's going to be enough. After week 2, Spidey was ahead $25M. Shrek cut it to $19M at the end of week 5, and to $17.7M at the end of the weekend. I'm not sure if cutting $2M a week off Spidey is going to get them there - Shrek was down to a $14M week last week, and it's not long before there just isn't the margin to pick off $2M a week. Still, it's marginally interesting to watch since it's likely the only movie that could challenge Spidey as King of the Summer... unless Potter turned into a bigger monster than any prior one. The tie into the final book *may* help it.


John
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corrado



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 2:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Evan Almighty seems to be the top candidate of "Box-office Bomb of the Year". While 32 mil is a great opening for most movies, Evan Almighty had a budget of 175. Obviously it won't break even.

I see Brad Bird's the Word's latest Pixar movie "Ratoulle" (sic) as the top movie next week making a typical Pixar strong opening. But "Live Free or Die Hard" will flop. Yet another example of why sequels with long down time tend to be flops. (Terminator 3.)
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon Jul 09, 2007 9:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Transformers has pulled in $152 million since its opening day last Tuesday. It will easily get to $200 million, and it might get to $300 million, but will need legs, especially with Harry Potter opening this week.

Ratatouille passed $100 million. $150 million is within reach, but $200 million may be harder to reach.

Knocked Up is one of the early favorites for surprise hit of the summer, having pulled in $132 million... more than $100 million above its budget.

And on the other end, as Corrado mentioned, is Evan Almighty, which is stuck at $78 million. It may not even break $100 million, and that's a movie with a $175 million budget.
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Jeremy Billones



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PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2007 11:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Potter 5 just threw down $44M on Wednesday night.

Biggest Wednesday open ever:

1) $44M Potter 5
2) $40M Spidey 2
3) $34M LotR 3

Fifth biggest Open ever:

1) $59.8M Spidey 3
2) $55.8M Pirates 2
3) $50.0M SW Ep 3
4) $45.1M X-Men 3
5) $44.2M Potter 5
6) $42.9M Pirates 3
7) $40.4M Spidey 2
8) $40.1M Potter 4

I'm sure the midnight showings helped a little.
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