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Summer Box Office Thread 2007
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2007 1:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Potter 5 should surpass the $100 million mark this weekend. What will really be interesting is to see how its pace will hold up to Spidey 3, which holds the edge in the race for the top summer blockbuster.

Transformers could get to $200 million during the weekend. I'm not sure if it will catch Spidey 3, though.

Fantastic Four 2 is likely to fall short of what the first FF movie made. It's up to $125 million now.

Here's the full daily chart as of Thursday at BoxOfficeMojo.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2007 5:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Potter may get to $100M Friday - needs $38M to do so. It's almost certain to do $30M+. I suspect by the end of the weekend that it will be in the $150-160M range. That will put it *far* ahead of any prior Potter movie, which have topped out at $102M through thier first Sunday. A big reason for that will be the Wed opening that this one had, of course. It will be very interesting to see if this one has the legs to get to $300M, which only the first one had. *If* the 7th book has a satisfying finish when it comes out for the Potter Fanboys/girls, it could very well drive some to give this another look.

I don't see Transformers as having a snowball's chance in hell of catching Spidey. Here's the 10 days from Mojo:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/grossbydays.htm?days=10&p=.htm

$240,236,828 Spidey-3
$204,305,684 Pirates-3
$202,471,111 Shrek-3
$178,188,861 Transformers

Transformers would need to be a major phenom to get there... and I just don't see it as being a phenom.

Potter is likely the last thing of the summer with a chance to catch Spidey-3... unless there's a potential phenom out there that I don't see.


John


John
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Frank_Jewett
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 14, 2007 11:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Potter conjured up an estimated $26.2M on Friday, leaving it just short of $89M after 3+ days. This may be part of the increased front loading that JDW has been pointing out for several years. Transformers raked in an estimated $10.9M to boost its haul to almost $198M. Ratatouille took in another $5M to pass the $130M mark, but $200M seems very optomistic.

I didn't think Ratatouille was among Pixar's best, but it saddens me to see it get drubbed by a CGI special effects orgy based on a line of toys. It's like seeing the Princess Bride get beat out by Robocop. Which movie will be more watchable in 5, 10, or 20 years?

Frank
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 15, 2007 12:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Frank_Jewett wrote:
Potter conjured up an estimated $26.2M on Friday, leaving it just short of $89M after 3+ days. This may be part of the increased front loading that JDW has been pointing out for several years.


I very much underestimated the bite the $62M on Wed-Thu would take out of the weekend, and probably overestimate the Potter Buzz going on at the moment impacting the movie positively.

Potter-4 took in $76.8M in it's first two days of release (Fri-Sat), and here was Potter-5 taking in $62M on Wed-Thu. I should have realised the pulling in 80% of the prior movie's opening two days before we even got to the weekend was going to reduce the weekend a good deal.

On the other item, there clearly is a massive Potter Buzz with the final book coming out. Perhaps it will help the legs of the movie, or re-bump of the movie, once the book comes out. Very hard to tell, and I'm just speculating.

If there are long term positives, it's that the weekend was a normal curve: peaked Saturday, with Sunday behind Friday. But it's a decent looking curve - Sunday's number relative to Friday and Saturday is pretty decent. Then again, these are all estimates, so they may be using a normal Fri-Sun, and the real numbers could come out quite a bit different.

The other positive is that the movie ends the weekend about $37.5M up on Potter-4. That movie does have an advantage coming up his week: it was released the week before Thanksgiving, which led to stronger than normal Wed-Fri holiday business. Potter-4 was at $201M by the end of next weekend. I think this Potter can get comfortably past that.

I still think this gets past $300M, but it will have to get a bump and/or have legs to get to the $317M of Potter-1.

Quote:
Transformers raked in an estimated $10.9M to boost its haul to almost $198M.


This is getting interesting. Here's the end of the second weekend of the movies mentioned above

$240,236,828 Spidey-3
$222,990,000 Transformers
$217,545,728 Pirates-3
$203,378,450 Shrek-3

Transformers did have that long Mon previews + Tuesday Opening + Wed holiday (4th) and holiday-ish Thu+Fri opening weekdays. It really does skew its numbers. In a sense, this is it's "third" weekend. It also has the big advantage of summer weekdays last week, while the movies above didn't.

I go back to what I said earlier in the thread: Pirates-3 made a massive mistake in not opening the weekend before the 4th of July, which would have drawn the monster opening weekend, then taken full advantage of the oddball 4th of July week, then had the strong second weekend, and then be able to pull the strong weekday numbers after that. I think it probably would have pulled in $350M to $375M in that slot, possible more... simply from that slot, and the buzz of being the third movie. Transformers would have moved up earlier in the summer.


Quote:
Ratatouille took in another $5M to pass the $130M mark, but $200M seems very optomistic.


The only positive would be that it's decline over the past two weekends is pretty strong relative to blockbusters the last few years: just -38.3% and -37.9%. It's likely to do in the range of $7M Mon-Thur, and $10M+ next weekend, which would push it to $160M. The questions become how much more than $7M and $10M it does, how the legs hold up, what else coming out does well and eats theaters from it, and of course how long Disney/Pixar leave it out. I think $180M-$190M is pretty much of a lock if it comes out of next weekend over $160M. If it comes out at or above $165M, it might have a chance at $200M.

A 40% drop in what it made Mon-Sun this week (about $33.5M for a non-holiday week, and with Potter coming out on Wed) would being the movie in $20M. That doesn't seem unreasonable.

To get to $165M would mean a decline in the low 30% range for the seven days, which in this era is a sign of decent legs.
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Box office numbers through Sunday, along with the weeks they've been in theaters:

Spidey 3 - $335 million (11)
Shrek 3 - $318 million (9)
Pirates 3 - $304 million (8)
Transformers - $224 million (2, Wednesday premier)
Ratatouille - $142 million (3)
Harry Potter 5 - $139 million (1, Wednesday premier)
Knocked Up - $138 million (7)
Fantastic Four 2 - $127 milllion (5)
Ocean's Thirteen - $112 million (6)
Live Free or Die Hard - $103 million (3)

Those are the summer movies that have had a box office of at least $100 million.

Potter 5 will break $200 million easily and it should reach $250 million. Whether it gets to $300 million depends on its legs.

Transformers will break $250 million, and $275 million is within reach, but it will likely fall short of $300 million.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2007 1:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Having read lots of major and likely very correct spoilers on Book 7, I suspect it's going to have a positive effect on the box office of Potter-5. Not sure just how positive the effect will be, but there was nothing in the spoilers that likely turns any of the fanboys and fangirls off on the series at the end. More likely it will satisfy the marks, while critical fans of the series like me have been annoyed for several books now and don't matter much. :)


John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2007 5:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Potter-5 was down 60% Friday vs. Last Friday. How much of that is due to the new book essentially coming out late night... who knows. Again, last Friday was the 3rd day of release for the movie, with $62M seeing it Wed-Thu. Being 60% down from that isn't a good sign. There really wasn't any new direct competition for it.

Potter-5 was about $40M ahead of Potter-4 through Tuesday, then gave a lot back as expected to Potter-4's Thanksgiving Holiday Box Office of Wed-Fri ($14.1M, $12.4M and $22.7M). It's now down to $16M ahead, and faces a $20.2M Saturday and a $11.8M Sunday to compete against.

It will almost certaion go back to kicking the shit out of the Mon-Thu numbers next week since those are School Days vs. Summer. Potter-4 was at $209M by next Thu. Potter-5 will get there. But a 60% drop isn't indicative of a movie that will get to $300M.

We'll have to see if this was a "book drop", and if there will be a re-bump up during the coming week as people finish the finale off. Potter-4 was down to $5.3M-$8.9M-$5.6M next weekend as a comp.


John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2007 5:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Potter-5 was down 60% Friday vs. Last Friday. How much of that is due to the new book essentially coming out late night... who knows. Again, last Friday was the 3rd day of release for the movie, with $62M seeing it Wed-Thu. Being 60% down from that isn't a good sign. There really wasn't any new direct competition for it.

Potter-5 was about $40M ahead of Potter-4 through Tuesday, then gave a lot back as expected to Potter-4's Thanksgiving Holiday Box Office of Wed-Fri ($14.1M, $12.4M and $22.7M). It's now down to $16M ahead, and faces a $20.2M Saturday and a $11.8M Sunday to compete against.

It will almost certaion go back to kicking the shit out of the Mon-Thu numbers next week since those are School Days vs. Summer. Potter-4 was at $209M by next Thu. Potter-5 will get there. But a 60% drop isn't indicative of a movie that will get to $300M.

We'll have to see if this was a "book drop", and if there will be a re-bump up during the coming week as people finish the finale off. Potter-4 was down to $5.3M-$8.9M-$5.6M next weekend as a comp.


John
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Steve Yohe



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2007 11:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

All the Potter talk in the newspaper has to help keep it going.--Yohe
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 11:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

As of Sunday, I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry leads Harry Potter 5 by $2 million in weekend revenue.

Potter did surpass $200 million, but either it's missing the legs, or people would rather spend time at home reading the Harry Potter 7 book.

Transformers is up to $262 million. At the rate it's going, it _might_ make it to $300 million. It's a long shot, granted, but there's an outside chance of that happening.

As for Potter 5, I don't know what its chances are at reaching $300 million We'll see what the final weekend box office numbers look like.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 1:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Transformers pulling in $20M this weekend, with just a -44% drop in the box office, makes it a look to get to $300M. There still was a very strong advertising campaign going on tv, with a new set of ads that I tend to think are better than the original clusterfuck-o-action ads.

Pirates is probably going to end up around $310M, most likely just short unless they leave it out a long time to keep money trickling in. $310M is a possibility for Transformers.

Shrek-3 is going to be around $320M. That's a little tougher for Transformers, since there's more likely to be movies competing for it's $$$ coming out.

It will need extremely strong legs to catch Spidey-3's $335M+. I don't think it will.

Potter-5 is hard to predict. It survived Potter-4's big $81.3M Wed-Sun Thanksgiving weekend number with a $6.5M lead after coming into that period with almost a $40M lead. Potter-4 pulled in $8.4M in the coming Mon-Thu since they were school days, and that's a number Potter-5 should batter. Even a 60% drop from last week would pull in $14.3M.

Potter-4 took it's big drop in the third weekend, down 64% to $19.9M.

The last Potter summer release was Potter-3, which took a similar big week 2 drop (down 63% to Potter-5's 58%), before stabalizing with a 48% drop in week 3. I would expect Potter-5 to be somewhere between 4's 64% and 3's 48%. If that's the case, 5 should still have a lead over 4 at the end of next weekend... possibly a bigger one than right now, and be on pace for $300M to the $290M that 4 took in.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 27, 2007 7:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mojo finally put together a new Summer Chart that includes Transformers and Potter-5 along with the earlier Big Three Threes:

SUMMER '07 CROWN

John
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corrado



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://boxofficeguru.com/072807.htm

Simpsons did phenomonal yesterday making nearly 30 mil. It could have a 70+ opening weekend. That's way better than expected. I guess the unique marketing strategy paid off big-time (7-11.)
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The Greatest Man Alive



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 8:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

corrado wrote:
http://boxofficeguru.com/072807.htm

Simpsons did phenomonal yesterday making nearly 30 mil. It could have a 70+ opening weekend. That's way better than expected. I guess the unique marketing strategy paid off big-time (7-11.)


I was hesitant until I saw 3 different trailers for it and each one was excellent. This movie entered the summer as the wild card for this year and it looks like it may be a huge hit. I don't know anyone who's seen it and not liked it quite a bit.
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corrado



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PostPosted: Sun Jul 29, 2007 10:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Final weekend box office:

http://www.boxofficeguru.com/weekend.htm

A very impressive weekend for the Simpsons Movie which insures at least one sequel.
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