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Summer Box Office Thread 2007
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 2883
Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2007 10:35 am    Post subject: Summer Box Office Thread 2007 Reply with quote

I figured it would be a good idea to keep box office discussion to its own thread so people can avoid any movie spoilers.

We start with the weekend of May 4-6 as Spidey 3 set the new opening weekend record with an estimated $148 million.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2308&p=.htm

$200 million will be easily reached, $250 million should be within its grasp, but it will need legs to get to $300 million.

Spidey 3 is rated 61 percent at Rotten Tomatoes, based on the 186 reviews collected. The first two Spidey movies had a much higher rating at RT, so I suspect it may not have the legs to reach $300 million.

It's worth noting even the positive reviews are not without noting weaknesses. A sampling from both sides of the fence:

"Spider-Man 3 is nothing if not eclectic, but somehow this ambitious mishmash works. Action-packed, with all the digital fireworks that a $250 million (or more) budget can buy, it's both the most grandiose chapter and the nuttiest."
--David Ansen, Newsweek

"One has to consider that the film's problems -- and they are numerous -- may be the product of the franchise's runaway popularity."
--James Berardinelli, ReelViews

"The script is busy with so many supporting characters and plot detours that the series' charming idiosyncrasy is sometimes lost in the noise. Fortunately, it's entertaining noise."
--Amy Biancolli, Houston Chronicle

"All in all, the fun has simply gone out of it."
--Michael Booth, Denver Post

"An extravagant three-ring circus of a movie from director Sam Raimi, but it's not without a struggle."
--Paul Clinton, CNN.com

"It's mostly enjoyable. But it's a limping effort compared with the first two. The trilogy hobbles to a finish when it should have soared."
--Colin Covert, Minneapolis Star Tribune

"If there's a moral to be gleaned from Spider-Man 3 -- aside from the fact that heavily promoted franchise movies tend to rake in megabucks -- it's this: Movies don't necessarily need to hit grand slams to score."
--Robert Denerstein, Rocky Mountain News

"Aesthetically and conceptually wrung out, fizzled rather than fizzy, this latest installment in the spider-bites-boy adventure story shoots high, swings low and every so often hits the sweet spot, but mostly just plods and plods along."
--Manohla Dargis, New York Times
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Frank_Jewett
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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2007 6:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also worth noting that the 61% is based on all reviewers polled, but the "Cream of the Crop", which tends to be traditional print reviews with wider circulation, is only 45%.

Frank
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eron



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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2007 10:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The movie would have gotten 2 extra points to the score had it not been for those retarded dancing emo scenes.
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kjh



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 544

PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2007 3:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd be extremely surprised if Spiderman 3 didn't have the legs to easily reach the $300 million mark. Sure its got much worse reviews than the preceding movies, but so did Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, which got off to a similar record breaking start, but despite the critical reviews still raced away to $300 million. And Spidey 3 is already $15.5 million ahead of Dead Man's Chest's pace.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2007 12:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$300M is pretty much a lock. It will get by $200M next weekend when the competition will be 28 Weeks Later and Georgia Rule.

It will fall sharply the third week when Shrek-3 comes out, and go off the cliff the weekend after (Memorial Day weekend) when Pirates-3 comes out.

It's good to keep Spidey-2's box office in mind:

$88,156,227 Week 1
$45,180,743 Week 2 (-48.7%)
$24,775,450 Week 3 (-45.2%)

Spidey 2 was helped in its overall Box Office by being a July 4 release, so it got lots of weekday box office. I think one of the things we saw on OW for Spidey is that folks are either going to see it this weekend or next weekend. Weekdays probably aren't going to match Spidey-2's.

Spidey-2 got to $373M. I think this weekend and next weekend tell us if Spidey-3 gets to $350M and if it has a shot at $400M. I don't think it's getting to $400M given the way the summer is set up (namely Pirate 3's odd decision to move to a week after Shrek 3). There's just too many big movies coming after Pirates that are going to eat up it's theater count and fans attention.

Not getting past $350M would have to be a disappointment to the studio.


John
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Bob Morris



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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Location: New Mexico

PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2007 1:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I stand corrected on my numbers. I forgot about Pirates 2 and its pace.

What will be interesting is how Shrek 3 and Pirates 3 fare against each other. Pirates 3 was obviously scheduled as such to pull in the Memorial Day weekend crowd. Shrek 3 will enter its second week and it will be interesting to see how they hold up against each other.

Spidey 3 will likely have lost steam by then, but there's a chance it could do better numbers Week 4 than Week 3 when considering the Memorial Day weekend factor. But it certainly will be well behind Pirates 3 and Shrek 3 in terms of the weekend box office during Memorial Day weekend.
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eron



Joined: 01 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2007 1:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jdw wrote:
Not getting past $350M would have to be a disappointment to the studio.


If they had released it earlier and it didn't have legs by the time Pirates came out, then sure.

But who is going to see Spider-Man 3 a second time when they can see Pirates for the first time?
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jdw
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PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2007 2:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The original Spidey had amazing legs even with a Star Wars movie in the traditional Star Wars Opening Day Spot (weekend before Memorial Day weekend).

I suspect that's what the Studio thought they had here. I suspect they also didn't think that Pirates-3 would go to Memorial Day, and instead would stick to the weekend before July 4.

Spidey 2 went to July 4 in 2004 to move away from Shrek 2 (Star Wars spot) and Potter 3 (the odd weekend *after* Memorial Day). That left Van Helsing in the early May slot that Spidey 1 had.

I think that the studio thought they had a Spidey 1 on their hands, that it could survive Shrek-2 doing massive business, and continue to do business into early June. It *seems* that Pirates bowing out of July 4 and moving up shook everything up. Spidey 3 was already locked into early May by then.

I don't know why the other option for July 4 and pre-July 4 weekend didn't take it - Potter 5. It opens July 13, which misses out on holiday business entirely.

It really is a strange summer. You have a movie like Live Free or Die Hard that *might* have done really nice business if released earlier in the year. Say Presidents Day Weekend, where Ghost Rider pulled in $52M in four days. That's Nick fucking Cage... and in a non-sequel. It ended up going past $100M. Maybe Die Hard will do that. Or maybe it just gets lost.

John
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jdw
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PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2007 2:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

$230,544,376 "opening weekend" internationally for Spidey-3, on top of the $150M in the US. Spidey-3 did open in more markets than just about anything ever, while most movies have rolled out over several weeks/months around the globe.

$418,002,176 Spidey
$410,180,516 Spidey-2

That's what the prior movies did internationally.

Old record for opening weekend internationally was $155,000,649 for Da Vinci Code. In fact, just six movies have done $100M internationally on their openings.

Freaking huge.

I'm guessing, given Spidey's prior international box office, that of Sherk's and that of Pirates, that Pirates-3 is going to top this if it opens as wide internationally.

International Box Office
$642M Pirates-2
$479M Shrek-2
$418M Spidey
$410M Spidey-2
$348M Pirates
$216M Shrek

Pirates was a phenom internationally, while the prior two Spidey's were well behind movies such as the Lord of the Rings movies, the Potter movies, Jurassic Park, Finding Nemo and Lion King, even Independence Day.

Anyway... Spidey-3 has already topped $400M worldwide. Yow!


John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2007 7:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

An estimated $60 million for Spidey 3 in its second weekend. Up to $242 million in domestic gross.

With a $258 million budget, breaking $300 million is pretty much a necessity. It could reach that figure by the end of the month, but that depends on how much audience it can hold against Pirates 3 and Shrek 3.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2007 1:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's behind Spidey-2, and Spidey-1 has a monster 3rd week ($45,036,912 opposite opening week of a *Stars Wars* sequel) coming up.

Spidey-3 will be behind Spidey-1 come next weekend. It's up by $19M right now, but will bleed some of that away Mon-Fri - Spidey-1's Monday of $5,211,249 is not far off the $5,908,618
Spidey-3 was down to last Friday. It will bleed the rest come the weekend and Shrek-3.

$300M is a lock. It will be #2 next weekend, and take in at least $20M. I don't think it will end up having to crawl to get to $300M.

Beyond that... I don't know. At this same point, Spidey-2 had about $115M+ left in the tank. Spidey-3 actually beat Spidey-2's second week rather handily: $60M vs. $45M. Spidey-2 got killed in it's third weekend by I Robot, taking it down to $24.8M. Bourne and the Village killed it the following weeks.

If Spidey-3 has the same $115M left in the tank, it can get to $350M.

Spidey-2 had the advantage of summer weekdays and also being pre-July 4 weekend, with not a lot coming out after those three movies I mentioned above. There wasn't a massive rush to push Spidey-2 out of the theaters, which probably helped it. The movie made close to $30M after it's 5th weekend out. I have doubts this will do that.

My guess would be that Spidey-3 goes north of $325M, but probably not a ton north.

Card subject to change if it gets its clock utterly cleaned next weekend (as in below $20M).


John
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Bob Morris



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PostPosted: Mon May 21, 2007 11:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Shrek 3 pulls in $122 million for its opening weekend. It didn't top either Spidey 3 or Pirates 2. It bettered Shrek 2's opening number of $108 million.

It will be interesting to see how Shrek 3 holds up, especially given that Shrek 2 had very good legs following its opening weekend.

Spidey 3 added $28.5 million to its tally.

Pirates 3 approaches. Next $100 million weekend, for sure. We'll see how it fares in the battle with Shrek 3 for the Memorial Day weekend audience.
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eron



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PostPosted: Mon May 21, 2007 1:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Spiderman 3: Badly reviewed movie but you still had to see it at least once.
Shrek 3: Bad movie but so was the second, which still kept the franchise alive due to Puss N Boots.
Pirates 3: Bad taste in many peoples mouths due to Pirates 2, but I have a feeling everyone will go anyway. Whether the third is actually a bad movie will see how it goes, but its my front runner for the Summer Blockbuster of the Year.
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jdw
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PostPosted: Mon May 21, 2007 4:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would hazzard a guess the majority of people who saw Pirates 2 liked it. I don't think a movie like that gets to $400M+ without 33% or more being repeat viewers. And I doubt that a great deal of the balance had a "bad taste" in their mouth. You now... that Clooney Batman level of bad taste. :)

I would be a little surprised if Pirates tops Spidey-3's Fri-Sun number. I think enough people will know they can see it on Monday that it will reduce the Fri-Sun a bit.

It should top Shrek 3. I'm guessing $130M+ Fri-Sun, with another $30M+ on Monday. Perhaps $175M on the four day.

It's then a short week, and nothing of note coming out the following weekend. It should make another killing.

One negative is the length of the movie - it's not short, so they won't be able to cycle through as many showings. I'm not as sure that's the level of problem it use to be. In Multiplexes, they have these movies running on multiple screens the first few weeks out.


John
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The Greatest Man Alive



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PostPosted: Mon May 21, 2007 7:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

eron wrote:
Spiderman 3: Badly reviewed movie but you still had to see it at least once.
Shrek 3: Bad movie but so was the second, which still kept the franchise alive due to Puss N Boots.
Pirates 3: Bad taste in many peoples mouths due to Pirates 2, but I have a feeling everyone will go anyway. Whether the third is actually a bad movie will see how it goes, but its my front runner for the Summer Blockbuster of the Year.


Agreed on Spidey and Pirates, but Shrek 3 is pretty good. Definitely better than the 2nd but not on par with the original.
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